In March 2024, the average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) stood at ***** U.S. dollars per metric ton. The price of VLSFO is strongly influenced by external factors, such as the price of crude oil and market forces of supply and demand. In the past two years, two separate events have had a profound effect on the price of VLSFO: the International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulfur cap on fuel oil in 2020 and, more recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Effects of the 2020 IMO sulfur cap In January 2020, a new limit on the sulfur content in fuel oil was introduced by the IMO. The goal of the cap was to reduce the concentration of sulfur in the air, thus reducing air pollution and preventing harm to marine ecosystems as well as protecting human health. Ship operators were forced to switch to VLSFO to comply with the new regulation, leading to a higher demand for VLSFO which in turn caused the price of VLSFO to increase to *** U.S. dollars per metric ton in January 2020. Shortly afterward, the world was hit with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. With production facilities shutting down worldwide, maritime transport considerably slowed, driving the price of VLSFO to a historic minimum of *** U.S. dollars per metric ton in April 2020. Escalating conflict in Ukraine could raise fuel prices After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, most of the West reacted by imposing sanctions on Russia to weaken its economy. Although vital for the Russian economy, the Russian oil industry remained untargeted by direct sanctions during the first days of the invasion. However, sanctions cutting off Russia’s access to international financial markets and the SWIFT payment system, as well as divestments of Western oil companies from the Russian oil industry, could severely impact the country’s oil sector. In 2020, Russia was the third-largest producer of crude oil in the world, accounting for about ** percent of the world’s crude oil production. Disruptions to the Russian oil industry could, therefore, have consequences for the supply of oil to the global market and drive prices up. Since crude oil is the main component of VLSFO, an increase in the price of crude oil will most likely lead to a rise in the price of VLSFO.

The daily price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been oscillating since the beginning of January 2022. On December 13, 2022, the price of VLSFO stood at 636 U.S. dollars per metric ton. With the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, the price of bunker fuel has notably increased in 2022, before dropping again at the end of the year.

Average bunker fuel prices ($/metric ton) for Intermediate Fuel Oil (IFO) 380CST, IFO 180CST, Marine Gas, and Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) across 20 major global bunkering locations.

Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) Market Outlook

The global Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) market size was valued at approximately USD 162 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach around USD 245 billion by 2032, growing at a robust CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period. The primary growth factor driving this market is the stringent regulations on sulfur emissions, which are enforcing a shift towards low sulfur fuel alternatives to minimize environmental impact.

One of the key growth factors for the VLSFO market is the implementation of the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 2020 regulation, which mandates a significant reduction in the sulfur content of fuel used by ships. The IMO 2020 regulation has created a surge in demand for VLSFO as shipping companies transition to compliant fuels to avoid penalties and continue operations smoothly. This regulatory shift has not only driven up demand but also sparked innovation and investments in the refining industry to produce VLSFO that meets the new standards.

Another significant growth factor is the increasing global awareness and commitment towards reducing air pollution and combating climate change. Governments and environmental agencies worldwide are implementing stringent air quality standards, which in turn is boosting the demand for cleaner fuels like VLSFO. Additionally, the rising health concerns associated with sulfur emissions are prompting industries to adopt VLSFO, which emits lower levels of sulfur oxides, thereby contributing to improved air quality and public health.

The ongoing advancements in refining technologies are also playing a crucial role in the growth of the VLSFO market. Refineries are investing heavily in upgrading their infrastructure and processes to produce VLSFO more efficiently and cost-effectively. The development of innovative refining techniques and the optimization of existing processes are enabling refineries to meet the growing demand for VLSFO while maintaining high production standards and minimizing production costs. This technological progress is expected to sustain the growth momentum of the VLSFO market in the coming years.

Regionally, Asia Pacific is projected to dominate the VLSFO market throughout the forecast period, driven by the robust growth of the shipping industry in countries like China, Japan, and South Korea. The region's extensive coastline and significant maritime trade activities make it a key market for VLSFO. Additionally, North America and Europe are expected to witness substantial growth due to the stringent environmental regulations and the increasing adoption of cleaner fuels in these regions. The Middle East & Africa and Latin America are also anticipated to contribute to the market growth, albeit at a relatively moderate pace, driven by their expanding industrial activities and evolving regulatory frameworks.

Type Analysis

The VLSFO market can be segmented by type into marine fuel and industrial fuel. Marine fuel constitutes a significant portion of the VLSFO market, driven by the extensive application of VLSFO in the maritime industry. The global maritime sector has been undergoing a significant transformation due to the IMO 2020 regulation, which has directly influenced the demand for marine fuel types with lower sulfur content. Shipping companies are increasingly adopting VLSFO to comply with these regulations, thereby reducing their sulfur emissions and contributing to environmental sustainability. This shift is expected to drive substantial growth in the marine fuel segment over the forecast period.

Industrial fuel is another crucial segment within the VLSFO market. Various industries, including power generation and manufacturing, are transitioning to VLSFO to adhere to environmental regulations and reduce their sulfur emissions. The industrial sector's growing awareness and commitment towards sustainable practices are fostering the adoption of VLSFO. Refineries are also focusing on producing industrial-grade VLSFO to cater to the specific needs of these industries. The increased adoption of VLSFO in industrial applications is expected to bolster the growth of this segment significantly.

Investments in refining technologies are paramount for the growth of both marine and industrial fuel segments. Refineries are upgrading their facilities to produce VLSFO that meets the required specifications for different applications. This includes enhancements in desulfurization processes and the development of new catalysts that facilitate the efficient production of low sulfur fuels.

The Report Covers Bunker Fuel Companies in Singapore and it is segmented by Fuel Type (High Sulfur Fuel Oil (HSFO), Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), Marine Gas Oil (MGO), Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), and Others (Methanol, LPG, Biodiesel), and Vessel Type (Containers, Tankers, General Cargo, Bulk Container, and Others).