The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 8 rows and is filtered where the books is Volcker : the triumph of persistence. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.

Investment bankers and brokers are expected to perform well throughout 2024. The industry has grown at a CAGR of 3.9% to $379.9 billion over the past five years, including an anticipated decrease of 1.7% in 2024 alone, with profit falling to 31.7% of revenue in the current years. Revenue from the industry's debt and equity underwriting segments increased drastically over 2020 and 2021 as companies and governments needed to raise cash quickly. Also, the industry encountered greater demand from SPAC IPOs in 2020 and 2021 which significantly grew revenue in the same years. In addition, economic uncertainty spiked as a result of health policy measures implemented by governments leading to increased market volatility. As a result, investors repositioned their portfolios and industry operators' revenue benefitted from increased trade activity due to volatility in financial markets over the past five years. Large investment banks have focused on consolidating their systems to reduce trading costs, which has limited declines in overall industry profit. The regulatory environment has also constrained the potential for higher revenue growth and has primarily affected bulge bracket banks across developed countries. To remain competitive, smaller boutique banks have seized this opportunity by increasing the focus on advisory services since it is difficult to compete on the basis of scale with large banks. As a result, of significant competition from larger players, smaller players have been forced to exit the industry and market share concentration for larger banks has climbed at the global level. While revenue from trading and related services is expected to dissipate from its temporarily elevated levels, revenue from underwriting and advisory services is expected to limit overall revenue declines. In addition, advisory service revenue is expected to support revenue during the outlook period. Geopolitical tensions remain at elevated levels due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could negatively affect demand for industry services. Lastly, developments regarding regulation have the potential to further hinder industry revenue. Overall, the industry is forecast to fall at a CAGR of 0.4% to $372.6 billion over the five years to 2029.

This paper derives optimal monetary policy rules in setups where certainty equivalence does not hold because either central bank preferences are not quadratic, and/or the aggregate supply relation is nonlinear. Analytical results show that these features lead to sign and size asymmetries, and nonlinearities in the policy rule. Reduced-form estimates indicate that US monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule after 1983, but not before 1979. This finding is consistent with the view that the Fed's inflation preferences during the Volcker-Greenspan regime differ considerably from the ones during the Burns-Miller regime. The file MONTHLY.TXT contains monthly data between 1970.1 and 2000.12 arranged in five columns; the file QUARTERLY.TXT contains quarterly data between 1960.1 and 2000.4 arranged in five columns. The headings OBS, FFRATE, INF, IPI, and UNRATE denote, respectively, the date, Federal Funds rate, CPI inflation rate, Index of Industrial Production, and Unemployment Rate. Additional details can be found the section entitled 3.1 DATA of the paper.

High price volatility among various commodities and the recent lowering of interest rates has fueled strong growth among commodity contracts intermediation brokers. While the national economy has continued to recover following a period of high inflationary pressures, recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued price volatility of oil and agricultural products strengthened commodity contracts’ popularity. Short-term contracts and future continue to facilitate interest among brokers, with revenue growing at a CAGR of 4.6% to an estimated $21.8 billion through the end of 2024, including an estimated 2.3% boost in 2024 alone. Profit continues to remain steady, as higher price volatility and lower interest rates continue to facilitate favorable market conditions for commodity traders. Banks, once outsized players in the industry, have significantly downsized or completely ended their commodity trading activities. This has put significant downward pressure on revenue as these institutions have been forced to limit proprietary trading due to the Volcker rule, enacted prior to the current period. The decreased presence of banks in the industry has allowed smaller players to enter the industry, exacerbating fragmentation among various service groups. The inflationary spike played a key role in buoying growth, with recent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Europe strengthening commodity price volatility. Moving forward, commodity contract intermediaries face a less certain landscape, as anticipated declines in global oil prices and the agricultural price index will dampen the popularity of long-term commodity trades. Increased demand for metal and energy products and the low inventories of metal commodities are expected to sustain a significant revenue stream for brokers. However, further uncertainty surrounding rising tensions in the Middle East will impact the types of trades made by commodity traders. Greater automation and adoption of new technologies such as blockchain will offer a workflow enhancement in the longer term. Nonetheless, an expected decline in global oil prices is poised to cause revenue to fall at a CAGR of 1.0% to an estimated $20.8 billion through the end of 2029.