The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately *** trillion U.S. dollars by August 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by July 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet ballooned following its announcement to carry out quantitative easing to increase the liquidity of U.S. banks in early 2020. The balance sheet continued to grow in the following period as well, with a downward trend in 2023. As of February 29, 2024, the Fed's balance sheet amounted to roughly 7.6 trillion U.S. dollars. The most drastic increase in the observed period took place in the first half of 2020. This measure was taken to increase the money supply and stimulate economic growth in the wake of the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve was not the only institution that implemented an expansionary monetary policy in response to the pandemic. For instance, the European Central Bank expanded its money supply in March 2020 and kept doing so over the following months. How do central banks increase the amount of money in circulation? Central banks can increase the money circulating in the economy in many ways. For instance, they can decrease banks’ reserve requirements to stimulate lending or decrease the interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowing for commercial banks. Alternatively, central banks can engage in open market operations (OMO) and buy securities such as government bonds from commercial banks or institutions. By conducting open market operations, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by seven trillion U.S. dollars between 2007 and 2023. All these measures aim to increase bank loans to entrepreneurs and consumers in order to stimulate employment and economic growth. Impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy The COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on national economies worldwide, and the United States was no exception. During the early months of the crisis, many lost their jobs, mostly those in lower-income categories. As a consequence, many Americans found it difficult to pay their rent and cover basic household expenses. Furthermore, in April 2022, most small business owners claimed that the pandemic had a large or moderate negative effect on their businesses. Overall, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States decreased by roughly 2.2 percent in 2020. In the following years, however, it increased notably, surpassing 25 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged throughout the following months. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Fund management activities revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2024-25 to £28.2 billion, including estimated growth of 7.8% in 2024-25. Fund managers have had to navigate turbulent markets in recent years, hit by aggressive monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and muted economic growth. Such uncertainty made investors antsy, triggering volatile capital flows and creating unstable fee income. Economic uncertainty surrounding markets amid the threat of a recession, the cost-of-living squeeze and the gilt crisis in 2022-23 all shook key investor segments, causing the first net outflow in funding in 2022 since data was first recorded. Despite conditions remaining bleak in 2023-24, financial markets made a slow recovery, with both bond and stock markets benefitting from the expectation of interest rate cuts, triggering a rally at the tail-end of the year. However, amid fierce price competition and falling fees, this wasn’t enough to offset the drop in revenue during 2023-24. Capital markets are set to perform well in 2024-25 thanks to further interest rate cuts and optimistic growth prospects supporting investment activity, driving up profit. However, fund managers exposed to US markets have seen hefty declines at the start of 2025, hit by Trump’s erratic tariff policies, which incited fears of a recession. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.4% over the five years through 2029-30 to £35 billion. Capital markets will continue to grow in 2025-26, propped up by the prospect of further rate cuts. However, equity remains vulnerable because soaring stock valuations seen in recent years can lead to a severe price correction if any negative news hits markets, hurting revenue growth. Already proving a useful tool for fund managers, AI will continue to gain momentum in the coming years, especially among smaller managers looking to improve data analytics capabilities and client offerings. Fund managers will also have to navigate the changing perceptions of ESG investments, which, although hitting the headlines over recent years, are beginning to lose the interest of investors due to their lower returns. While growth in the domestic economy may be slow in the coming years, investment companies will take advantage of growing opportunities in expanding markets, despite facing fiercer competition from foreign funds.

The M2 money supply in the United Kingdom increased rapidly between 2000 and 2023, with a particularly sharp increase in 2020 as a result of the quantitative easing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rising tendency continued between 2021 and 2022, and by December 2022, the M2 money supply in the UK exceeded ***** trillion British pounds. 2023 marked the first year in over a decade that the M2 money supply declined, but it remained above ***** trillion British pounds.

The value of total assets held by the Bank of England increased significantly between 2013 and 2022. A particularly sharp increase took place in 2020 and 2021, triggered by the quantitative easing introduced as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The total assets of the Bank of England dropped in 2022 but remained above ************ British pounds. In the third quarter of 2022, the British central bank held roughly *** trillion British pounds worth of assets. In Europe, the largest central bank in terms of total assets is the Deutsche Bundesbank, which held almost ************** euros at the end of 2022. The Bank of England ranked fourth.

The United States M1 money supply reached approximately ***** trillion dollars by July 2025, showing a slight uptick from the previous year. This modest increase follows a period of contraction in late 2022 and early 2023, which stood in stark contrast to the dramatic expansion seen from May 2020 onward. The earlier surge was largely attributed to the Federal Reserve's aggressive quantitative easing measures implemented in response to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The total assets of the Bank of England increased significantly between 2006 and 2024, despite a recent downward trend. There were particularly sharp increases in 2021 and 2022, which was due to the quantitative easing that was initiated as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, the total assets of the central bank decreased slightly to ******* billion British pounds but remained above ************ British pounds. In 2024, the total assets further decreased to ****** billion British pounds. In Europe, the largest central bank in terms of total assets is the Deutsche Bundesbank, which held over *** trillion euros at the end of 2023. The Bank of England ranked fourth.

The long-term interest rate on government debt is a key indicator of the economic health of a country. The rate reflects financial market actors' perceptions of the creditworthiness of the government and the health of the domestic economy, with a strong and robust economic outlook allowing governments to borrow for essential investments in their economies, thereby boosting long-term growth.

The Euro and converging interest rates in the early 2000s

In the case of many Eurozone countries, the early 2000s were a time where this virtuous cycle of economic growth reduced the interest rates they paid on government debt to less than 5 percent, a dramatic change from the pre-Euro era of the 1990s. With the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent deep recession, however, the economies of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland were seen to be much weaker than previously assumed by lenders. Interest rates on their debt gradually began to rise during the crisis, before rapidly increasing beginning in 2010, as first Greece and then Ireland and Portugal lost the faith of financial markets.

The Eurozone crisis

This market adjustment was initially triggered due to revelations by the Greek government that the country's budget deficit was much larger than had been previously expected, with investors seeing the country as an unreliable debtor. The crisis, which became known as the Eurozone crisis, spread to Ireland and then Portugal, as lenders cut-off lending to highly indebted Eurozone members with weak fundamentals. During this period there was also intense speculation that due to unsustainable debt loads, some countries would have to leave the Euro currency area, further increasing the interest on their debt. Interest rates on their debt began to come back down after ECB Chief Mario Draghi signaled to markets that the central bank would intervene to keep the states within the currency area in his famous "whatever it takes" speech in Summer 2012.

The return of higher interest rates in the post-COVID era

Since this period of extremely high interest rates on government debt for these member states, the interest they are charged for borrowing has shrunk considerably, as the financial markets were flooded with "cheap money" due to the policy measures of central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, such as near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing. As interest rates have risen to combat inflation since 2022, so have the interest rates on government debt in the Eurozone also risen, however, these rises are modest compared to during the Eurozone crisis.

The M3 money supply in the United Kingdom increased rapidly between 2000 and 2023, with a particularly sharp increase in 2020 as a result of the quantitative easing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rising tendency continued between 2021 and 2022, and by December 2022, the M3 money supply in the UK exceeded **** trillion British pounds. 2023 saw a slight decline in the M3 money supply, dropping to **** trillion British pounds by December 2023.

The M1 money supply in the United Kingdom saw rapid growth between 2000 and 2023, with a particularly sharp spike in 2020 due to quantitative easing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While this upward trend persisted through 2021 and 2022, it significantly slowed, with 2022 marking the slowest growth since 2011. By 2023, the M1 money supply experienced its first decline in over a decade.

In 2024, Japan had an average inflation rate estimated at 2.74 percent, marking the highest rate of inflation in Japan in almost a decade. However, this figure was still very low compared to most other major economies, such as Japan's fellow G7 members, four of which had inflation rates around six or seven percent in 2023 due to the global inflation crisis. Why is Japan's inflation rate lower? There are a number of contributing factors to Japan's relatively low inflation rate, even during economic crises. Japan eased its Covid restrictions more slowly than most other major economies, this prevented post-pandemic consumer spending that may have driven inflation through supply chain issues caused by higher demand. As the majority of Japan's food and energy comes from overseas, and has done so for decades, the government has mechanisms in place to prevent energy and wheat prices from rising too quickly. Because of this, Japan was able to shield its private sector from many of the negative knock on effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which had a significant impact on both sectors globally. Persistent deflation and national debt An additional factor that has eased the impact of inflation on Japan's economy is the fact that it experienced deflation before the pandemic. Deflation has been a persistent problem in Japan since the asset price bubble burst in 1992, and has been symptomatic of Japan's staggering national debt thereafter. For almost 30 years, a combination of quantitative easing, low interest rates (below 0.5 percent since 1995, and at -0.1% since 2016), and a lack of spending due to low wages and an aging population have combined to give Japan the highest national debt in the world in absolute terms, and second-highest debt in relation to its GDP, after Venezuela. Despite this soaring debt, Japan remains the fourth-largest economy in the world, behind the U.S., China, and Germany.