Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and June 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

In June 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In the first half of 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.1 percent in June 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.4 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Key information about United States Short Term Interest Rate

• United States Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Treasury Bills: 3 Months was reported at 4.20 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.20 % pa in the previous month.
• US Short Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1954 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 15.52 % pa in Aug 1981 and a record low of -0.01 % pa in Sep 2015.
• Short Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Federal Reserve Board.

CEIC calculates monthly Short Term Interest Rate from daily Treasury Bills. Federal Reserve Board provides Treasury Bills. Short Term Interest Rate prior to December 1979 is sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.


Related information about United States Short Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, US Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: 10 Years was reported at 4.45 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Effective Federal Funds Rate) was set at 4.33 % pa in Feb 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-08-08 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Key information about Germany Long Term Interest Rate

• Germany Long Term Interest Rate: Month Avg: Germany: ECB Harmonised was reported at 2.41 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 2.48 % pa in the previous month.
• Germany Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1990 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 9.09 % pa in Oct 1990 and a record low of -0.65 % pa in Aug 2019.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by CEIC Data.

The European Central Bank provides monthly Harmonised Long Term Interest Rate. The data reflects primary market yields.


Related information about Germany Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, Germany Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: EURIBOR: 3 Months was reported at -0.57 % pa in Nov 2021.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Main Refinancing Operations) was set at 2.90 % pa in Feb 2025.
• Germany Exchange Rate against USD averaged 0.92 (USD/EUR) in Jun 2023.

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by July 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *********, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Key information about Canada Long Term Interest Rate

• Canada Government Benchmark Bonds Yield: Month End: 10 Years was reported at 2.90 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 3.07 % pa in the previous month.
• Canada Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1993 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 9.28 % pa in Jun 1994 and a record low of 0.46 % pa in Jul 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Bank of Canada.

Government Benchmark Bond are rates based on actual mid-market closing yields of selected Canada bond issues that mature approximately in the indicated term areas.


Related information about Canada Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, Canada Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Treasury Bills Yield: 3 Months was reported at 2.82 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Overnight Target Rate) was set at 3.00 % pa in Feb 2025.
• Canada Exchange Rate against USD averaged 1.33 (USD/CAD) in Jun 2023.

Key information about Japan Policy Rate

• Japan cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Japan: Complementary Deposit Facility Interest Rate) was set at -0.10 % pa in Jun 2023, compared with -0.10 % pa in the previous May 2023.
• Japan Policy Rate averaged -0.10 % pa and is updated monthly, available from Nov 2008 to Jun 2023.
• The data reached an all-time high of 0.10 % pa in Jan 2016 and a record low of -0.10 % pa in Jun 2023.

As of April 2013, Bank of Japan has switched to the amount of monetary base as its main operating tool. Under this arrangement, the Complementary Deposit Facility Interest Rate can be used as an indication of monetary policy. It represents the interest paid on excess reserve balances (balances held at the account with the Bank of Japan in excess of required reserves under the reserve deposit requirement system).


Related information about Japan Policy Rate

• In the latest reports, Japan Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: TIBOR: Japanese Yen: 3 Months was reported at 0.07 % pa in Jun 2023.
• Its Long Term Interest Rate (Bonds Yield: Government Bonds: Newly Issued: 10 Years: Month End) was reported at 0.43 % pa in May 2023.
• Japan Exchange Rate against USD averaged 137.05 (USD/JPY) in May 2023.
• Its Real Effective Exchange Rate was 59.46 in May 2023.

Key information about Japan Long Term Interest Rate

• Japan Bonds Yield: Government Bonds: Newly Issued: 10 Years: Month End was reported at 1.37 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 1.24 % pa in the previous month.
• Japan Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Dec 1998 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 2.10 % pa in Jan 1999 and a record low of -0.28 % pa in Aug 2019.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Bank of Japan.

Data refers to yield of newly issued 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield. Yield figures before November 2014 are rates on the latest transaction. Yield figures from November 2014 onwards are rates based on JGB closing prices.


Related information about Japan Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, Japan Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: TIBOR: Japanese Yen: 3 Months was reported at 0.79 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Japan: Complementary Deposit Facility Interest Rate) was set at -0.10 % pa in Jun 2023.
• Japan Exchange Rate against USD averaged 141.36 (USD/JPY) in Jun 2023.

Key information about Russia Long Term Interest Rate

• Russia Long Term Interest Rate: Month End: GKO-OFZ Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield: 10 Years was reported at 15.52 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 16.53 % pa in the previous month.
• Russia Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 2003 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 16.89 % pa in Oct 2024 and a record low of 5.70 % pa in May 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Bank of Russia.

Related information about Russia Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, Russia Short Term Interest Rate: MIACR: 1 to 3 Months was reported at 9.71 % pa in Jul 2023.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Key Rate) was set at 21.00 % pa in Feb 2025.
• Russia Exchange Rate against USD averaged 83.16 (USD/RUB) in Jun 2023.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged throughout the following months. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates in the United States averaged 6.77 percent in the week ending August 1 of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE15US) from 1991-08-30 to 2025-08-07 about 15-year, fixed, mortgage, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate Changes: Historical Dates of Changes and Rates (PRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2024-12-20 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 18 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.