United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Feb 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data was reported at 0.856 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.829 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.413 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.146 % in Sep 1982 and a record low of -3.505 % in Dec 1980. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data was reported at 0.986 Basis Point in Feb 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.885 Basis Point for Jan 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.572 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 626 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.924 Basis Point in Nov 2008 and a record low of 0.563 Basis Point in Oct 1978. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S078: FRB Recession Risk.

During the Great Recession many incumbent parties were not confirmed in power by the ballots. The harsh law of the economic vote severely undermined their electoral chances. Yet it is unclear if they were punished by the absolute poor state of affairs, or by the relative deterioration of the economy; by a direct judgement of the domestic situation, or by its comparison with some external benchmark capturing more global dynamics; and whether or not the global crisis modified all these parameters. This exploratory analysis looks into all these issues using a dataset covering all the elections that took place in 38 democracies in the period 2000-2015, and contributing to the recent debate about the actual benchmarking of the state of the economy from behalf of voters. The Great Recession confirms its exceptional character, revealing that absolute reference points became more important than tailored benchmarks and short-term comparisons.

Recession Experience by Country.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Euro Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (EUROREC) from Mar 1960 to Aug 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, Euro Area, and Europe.

Consumer Confidence in the United States decreased to 57.90 points in March from 64.70 points in February of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

DTRTU Stock: Are We Headed for a Recession?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Predicted probabilities of Self-Rated health by recession experiences.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Singapore expanded 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - Singapore GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The impacts of climate change, including sea level rise and the increased frequency of storm surge events, will adversely affect infrastructure in a significant number of Australian coastal communities. In order to quantify this risk and develop suitable adaptation strategies, the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) commissioned the National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA). With contributions from Geoscience Australia (GA) and the University of Tasmania, this first-pass national assessment has identified the extent and value of infrastructure that is potentially vulnerable to impacts of climate change. In addition, the NCVA examined the changes in exposure under a range of future population scenarios.

The NCVA was underpinned by a number of fundamental national scale datasets; a mid-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) used to model a series of sea level rise projections incorporating 1 in 100 year storm-tide estimates where available; the 'Smartline' (nationa; coastal geomorphology dataset) identified coastal landforms that are potentially unstable and may recede with the influence of rising sea level. The inundation outputs were then overlain with GA's National Exposure Information System to quantify the number and value of infrastructure elements (including residential and commercial buildings, roads and rail) potentially vulnerable to a range of sea-level rise and recession estimates for the year 2100.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

n = 4231, Countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Slovenia, and Sweden. The proportional odds assumption was violated for GNIchange, Age (25–34) and Education (Master’s Degree or PhD).Partial Proportional Odds Model for Self Rated Health, fourth GNI per capita quartile ($23,910 to $50, 870).

n = 19759, Countries: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden and Ukraine. The proportional odds assumption was violated for GNI growth (%), Wage Reduction, Education (all categories), and Social Class (middle).Weighted Partial Proportional Odds Model of Self-Rated Health, all countries.

Graph and download economic data for Initial Claims (ICSA) from 1967-01-07 to 2025-03-15 about initial claims, headline figure, and USA.

County fixed-effects regression estimates for the relationship between unemployment rate and secondary outcomes, 2008–2011.