By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

United States FRB Recession Risk data was reported at 0.178 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.192 % for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk data is updated monthly, averaging 0.193 % from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 % in Oct 2008 and a record low of 0.022 % in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Aug 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

The excess bond premium (EBP) is a measure of investor sentiment or risk appetite in the corporate bond market. A credit spread index can be decomposed into two components: a component that captures the systematic movements in default risk of individual firms and a residual component: the excess bond premium that represents variation in the average price of bearing exposure to US corporate credit risk, above and beyond the compensation for expected defaults. The EBP component of corporate bond credit spreads that is not directly attributable to expected default risk provides an effective measure of investor sentiment or risk appetite in the corporate bond market.

Context

This dataset was built using the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's State Coincident Indices and the Bry-Boschan Method for business cycle dating. In the tradition of Owyang, Piger, et al. business cycles are calculated on the state level which provides interesting analysis opportunities for looking at recession timing for different regions or sectors present in different states. The MSA level data utilizes the Economic Coincident Indices available on the St. Louis FRED website and uses a variant of the non-parametric algorithm described in Metro Business Cycles (Arias et al. 2016) to date MSA level recessions.

Content

This data is from 1982 through 2018 and includes whether the economy is in a recession or not, with forward looking and backward looking data available for observations as well. Additionally, various FRED St. Louis series were joined, like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Global Price of Brent Crude. The 2012 value added as a percent for different NAICS groups is included as well for sectoral analysis, although better data over time for this would prove beneficial. The industries file attempts to correct this, but has fewer years available.

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to the researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and St. Louis for collecting and making available much of the data that went into this dataset.

Inspiration

I was inspired by researchers that have attempted to take business cycle dating to the state and MSA level. Local business cycle dating methodologies allow for a more robust understanding of what goes into a recession and how sectoral composition can affect a state or MSA's "resilience" to recessions. This could have applications for weighting business cycle risk for companies based on geographic dispersion of customers, as well as local policymakers if local forecasting could be done successfully.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data was reported at 3.150 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.000 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 5.750 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.320 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 1.500 % in Jul 2016. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data was reported at 2.250 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.130 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 4.620 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.300 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data was reported at -0.105 Basis Point in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.060 Basis Point for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data is updated monthly, averaging -0.056 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.539 Basis Point in Oct 2008 and a record low of -1.026 Basis Point in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data was reported at 0.856 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.829 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.413 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.146 % in Sep 1982 and a record low of -3.505 % in Dec 1980. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data was reported at 2.294 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.171 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data is updated monthly, averaging 4.740 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.237 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

Business Confidence in the United States increased to 48.70 points in August from 48 points in July of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Incidence of suicide rate for BFP participation, overall, by sex and age group, in the original and matched cohorts from 2004–2015.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data was reported at 1.268 Basis Point in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.114 Basis Point for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.572 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.924 Basis Point in Nov 2008 and a record low of 0.563 Basis Point in Oct 1978. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Abstract (en): In 1995-1996, the MacArthur Midlife Research Network carried out a national survey of over 7,000 Americans aged 25 to 74 [ICPSR 2760]. The purpose of the study was to investigate the role of behavioral, psychological, and social factors in understanding age-related differences in physical and mental health. The study was innovative for its broad scientific scope, its diverse samples (which included siblings of the main sample respondents and a national sample of twin pairs), and its creative use of in-depth assessments in key areas (e.g. daily diary of stressful experiences [ICPSR 3725] and cognitive functioning [ICPSR 3596]) on a subset of participants. A detailed description of the study and findings generated by it are available at: http://www.midus.wisc.edu With support from the National Institute on Aging, a follow-up of the original Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS) sample was conducted in 2004 (MIDUS 2 [ICPSR 4652]). The daily stress and cognitive functioning projects were repeated and expanded at MIDUS 2; in addition the protocol was expanded to include biomarkers and neuroscience. In 2013 a third wave (MIDUS 3) of survey data was collected on longitudinal participants. Data collection for this follow-up wave largely repeated baseline assessments (e.g., phone interview and extensive self-administered questionnaire), with additional questions in selected areas such as economic recession experiences. Cognitive functioning data were also collected at the same time, while data collection for the daily diary, biomarker, and neuroscience projects commenced in 2017. MIDUS also maintains a Colectica portal, which allows users to interact with variables across waves and create customized subsets. Registration is required. The Aggregate Data dataset contains 2,613 variables and 3,294 cases. This dataset includes information about the following types of variables: recession experience, health, education, occupation, marital status, household roster, children, caregiving, living arrangements, race and ethnicity, life satisfaction, health insurance, personal beliefs, finances, community involvement, neighborhood, social networks, sexuality, religion and spirituality, discrimination, childhood family background, images of life change, and psychological turning points. The Disposition Codes dataset contains 6 variables and 7,108 cases. This dataset contains final disposition codes for the M3 phone interview. The Coded Text Data dataset contains 183 variables and 3,137 cases. This dataset contains coded text responses to open-ended questions and those which had "Other-specify" responses. ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: Created online analysis version with question text.; Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.. Presence of Common Scales: For information regarding scales, please refer to the Psychosocial Constructs and Composite Variables. Response Rates: 77 percent of living longitudinal participants completed the M3 phone survey. Details of fielding and final disposition codes for Phone, SAQ, as well as Cognitive data collection projects can be found in the Field Report. Datasets:DS0: Study-Level FilesDS1: Aggregate DataDS2: Disposition CodesDS3: Coded Text DataDS4: National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS 3), 2013-2014, Coded Text Data The noninstitutionalized, English-speaking population of the United States. Smallest Geographic Unit: none Only living respondents who completed the M2 phone interview were eligible for participation in the M3 survey. 2019-04-30 This collection has been updated to include new data supplied by the P.I. The resupplied data includes new cases for the Self-Administered Questionnaire (SAQ) as part of the MIDUS M3 re-fielding effort undertaken to increase participant completion during 2015 fielding. The re-fielding cases can be identified and/or filtered with C1STATUS or the new M3RE_FILTER variables. Ten post-stratification weight variables (C1PWGHT1 through C1PWGHT10), and a new occupation variable based on Standard Occupation Classification system, have b...

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China expanded 5.20 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - China GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Suicide IRR for BFP participation in the matched and original cohorts from 2004–2015.