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  1. f

    Out-of-sample results based on linear regression.

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    • figshare.com
    xls
    Updated Jan 2, 2024
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    Xiaolu Wei; Hongbing Ouyang (2024). Out-of-sample results based on linear regression. [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0296105.t004
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    xlsAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jan 2, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    PLOS ONE
    Authors
    Xiaolu Wei; Hongbing Ouyang
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    Carbon price prediction is of great importance to regulators and participants in the carbon trading market. It is the basis for developing policies related to the carbon trading market and stabilizing that market. Considering the numerous factors that influence carbon prices in China, dimensionality reduction is needed to improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency. However, the traditional dimensionality reduction methods fail to fully consider the role of influencing factors, which has certain limitations. In this paper, a new dimensionality reduction method, namely scaled principal component analysis (s-PCA), is employed to improve the prediction accuracy of carbon prices. Firstly, a factor library that influence carbon prices is constructed from three perspectives: technical indicators, financial indicators and commodities indicators. Then, the s-PCA method is used to reduce the dimensionality of factors influencing carbon price. Next, two different methods are used to predict carbon prices, including traditional regression method and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Finally, the economic value of the s-PCA method is examined by constructing investment portfolios. The empirical results of the Hubei Emissions Exchange show that the s-PCA model outperforms other competing models both in- and out-of-sample. In addition, the LSTM model could improve the performance of the s-PCA model in carbon price prediction. From a market timing perspective, investors can achieve a greater return and a larger Sharpe ratio using the s-PCA method than using other comparative methods and buy-and-hold strategy. Therefore, the s-PCA method is effective and robust in predicting carbon price.

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Share
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TwitterTwitter
Email
Click to copy link
Link copied
Close
Cite
Xiaolu Wei; Hongbing Ouyang (2024). Out-of-sample results based on linear regression. [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0296105.t004

Out-of-sample results based on linear regression.

Related Article
Explore at:
xlsAvailable download formats
Dataset updated
Jan 2, 2024
Dataset provided by
PLOS ONE
Authors
Xiaolu Wei; Hongbing Ouyang
License

Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically

Description

Carbon price prediction is of great importance to regulators and participants in the carbon trading market. It is the basis for developing policies related to the carbon trading market and stabilizing that market. Considering the numerous factors that influence carbon prices in China, dimensionality reduction is needed to improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency. However, the traditional dimensionality reduction methods fail to fully consider the role of influencing factors, which has certain limitations. In this paper, a new dimensionality reduction method, namely scaled principal component analysis (s-PCA), is employed to improve the prediction accuracy of carbon prices. Firstly, a factor library that influence carbon prices is constructed from three perspectives: technical indicators, financial indicators and commodities indicators. Then, the s-PCA method is used to reduce the dimensionality of factors influencing carbon price. Next, two different methods are used to predict carbon prices, including traditional regression method and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Finally, the economic value of the s-PCA method is examined by constructing investment portfolios. The empirical results of the Hubei Emissions Exchange show that the s-PCA model outperforms other competing models both in- and out-of-sample. In addition, the LSTM model could improve the performance of the s-PCA model in carbon price prediction. From a market timing perspective, investors can achieve a greater return and a larger Sharpe ratio using the s-PCA method than using other comparative methods and buy-and-hold strategy. Therefore, the s-PCA method is effective and robust in predicting carbon price.

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