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Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025.

TZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

• Estimated Resident Population

• Structural Private Dwellings (Regional NSW only)

• Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex

• Population in Non-Private Dwellings

The projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography.

Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP24:

• 2024 NSW Population Projections – NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure

• 2021 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)

For a summary of the TZP24 projection method please refer to the TZP24 Factsheet.

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide.

Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone 2021 boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.

Visualisations of the population projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website under Data and research/Reference Information.

Cautions

The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and employment projections.

The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

• TZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.

• The TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early 2024).

• The projections are not government targets.

• Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.

• As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.

• More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.

• Caution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.

Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide

Important note:

The Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI) published the 2024 NSW Population Projections in November 2024. As per DPHI’s published projections, the following variables are excluded from the published TZP24 Population and Dwellings Projections:

• Structural Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in 43 councils across Greater Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle

• Occupied Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in NSW.

Furthermore, in TZP24, the Structural Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Implied Dwelling projections while the Occupied Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Households projections at SA2 level prepared by DPHI.

The above variables are available upon request by contacting model.selection@transport.nsw.gov.au - Attention Place Forecasting.

TPA has a range of location information products which include digitised boundaries. Travel Zones (TZs) are the geographic units of TPA’s data collection, transport modelling and analysis. They are designed to align as much as possible with current Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) geographic classification for that year, to allow for comparison of different data sources at standard geographies. Geographic coverage – Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) In order to provide for a similar level of trip generation across zones, TZs are designed to be small in areas with high land use densities and larger in areas of lower density. The key land uses of interest in defining TZs are employment, housing and transport infrastructure. As urban areas change over time, TPA creates a new zoning system in line with each 5-yearly population Census. Digitised boundaries for these zoning systems and equivalences between them, are available to users to undertake spatial analysis. 1991 – 2006 – Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC), with Statistical Local Areas (SLA), Census Collection District (CCD) and Mesh Blocks (MB). Prior to 2006, TZs aligned to Statistical Local Areas (SLA). GMA may change slightly at the boundary to align with ABS geographic classifications. This will not usually impact on the comparison of data over time.

The department has been monitoring the status and availability of existing and potential future industrial land and business parks as part of the Employment Lands Development Monitor (ELDM) since 2010. It covers the Sydney, Central Coast, Hunter and Illawarra-Shoalhaven Regions. Reporting for the Hunter and Illawarra-Shoalhaven Region’s commenced in 2017 and 2018 respectively. From 2021, a summary across the rest of Regional NSW has been added to the report.

Its aims is to provide the data and evidence needed to inform planning decisions that enable job creation and the functioning of a city.

The ELDM is an annual snapshot taken at a point in time. As such, the ELDM land audit and associated data is taken as at January 2022. However, some reporting included in the ELDM such as the Industrial, Commercial and Retail reports provide a more recent outlook across the first half of 2022 including the impact of COVID-19 on the market.

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