United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Lower data was reported at 24.000 % in Feb 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 27.100 % for Jan 2025. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Lower data is updated monthly, averaging 12.100 % from Jun 1987 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 453 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 45.800 % in Jan 1991 and a record low of 5.200 % in Jun 2018. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Lower data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Conference Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H044: Consumer Confidence Index: Interest Rate Expectation. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.65 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Same data was reported at 24.300 % in Feb 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 23.500 % for Jan 2025. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Same data is updated monthly, averaging 29.800 % from Jun 1987 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 453 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 43.700 % in Dec 1997 and a record low of 13.600 % in Mar 1989. United States Interest Rates: 12 Months Expectation: Same data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by The Conference Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H044: Consumer Confidence Index: Interest Rate Expectation. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 9.50 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Thailand was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides - Thailand Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.75 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) from 2008-12-16 to 2025-03-26 about federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Australia was last recorded at 4.10 percent. This dataset provides - Australia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low (FEDTARCTL) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Czech Republic was last recorded at 3.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Czech Republic Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Long term dataset showing the 30 year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States since 1971.

This dataset contains news headlines relevant to key forex pairs: AUDUSD, EURCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. The data was extracted from reputable platforms Forex Live and FXstreet over a period of 86 days, from January to May 2023. The dataset comprises 2,291 unique news headlines. Each headline includes an associated forex pair, timestamp, source, author, URL, and the corresponding article text. Data was collected using web scraping techniques executed via a custom service on a virtual machine. This service periodically retrieves the latest news for a specified forex pair (ticker) from each platform, parsing all available information. The collected data is then processed to extract details such as the article's timestamp, author, and URL. The URL is further used to retrieve the full text of each article. This data acquisition process repeats approximately every 15 minutes.

To ensure the reliability of the dataset, we manually annotated each headline for sentiment. Instead of solely focusing on the textual content, we ascertained sentiment based on the potential short-term impact of the headline on its corresponding forex pair. This method recognizes the currency market's acute sensitivity to economic news, which significantly influences many trading strategies. As such, this dataset could serve as an invaluable resource for fine-tuning sentiment analysis models in the financial realm.

We used three categories for annotation: 'positive', 'negative', and 'neutral', which correspond to bullish, bearish, and hold sentiments, respectively, for the forex pair linked to each headline. The following Table provides examples of annotated headlines along with brief explanations of the assigned sentiment.

Examples of Annotated Headlines


    Forex Pair
    Headline
    Sentiment
    Explanation




    GBPUSD 
    Diminishing bets for a move to 12400 
    Neutral
    Lack of strong sentiment in either direction


    GBPUSD 
    No reasons to dislike Cable in the very near term as long as the Dollar momentum remains soft 
    Positive
    Positive sentiment towards GBPUSD (Cable) in the near term


    GBPUSD 
    When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBPUSD 
    Neutral
    Poses a question and does not express a clear sentiment


    JPYUSD
    Appropriate to continue monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation target with wage growth 
    Positive
    Monetary easing from Bank of Japan (BoJ) could lead to a weaker JPY in the short term due to increased money supply


    USDJPY
    Dollar rebounds despite US data. Yen gains amid lower yields 
    Neutral
    Since both the USD and JPY are gaining, the effects on the USDJPY forex pair might offset each other


    USDJPY
    USDJPY to reach 124 by Q4 as the likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains 
    Negative
    USDJPY is expected to reach a lower value, with the USD losing value against the JPY


    AUDUSD

RBA Governor Lowe’s Testimony High inflation is damaging and corrosive

    Positive
    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expresses concerns about inflation. Typically, central banks combat high inflation with higher interest rates, which could strengthen AUD.

Moreover, the dataset includes two columns with the predicted sentiment class and score as predicted by the FinBERT model. Specifically, the FinBERT model outputs a set of probabilities for each sentiment class (positive, negative, and neutral), representing the model's confidence in associating the input headline with each sentiment category. These probabilities are used to determine the predicted class and a sentiment score for each headline. The sentiment score is computed by subtracting the negative class probability from the positive one.

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 2.25 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

The benchmark interest rate in Taiwan was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Taiwan Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Key information about United States Long Term Interest Rate

• United States Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: 10 Years was reported at 4.45 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.63 % pa in the previous month.
• US Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Apr 1953 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 15.32 % pa in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.62 % pa in Jul 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Federal Reserve Board.

CEIC calculates monthly Long Term Interest Rate from daily 10 year Treasury Constant Maturity Yield. The Federal Reserve Board provides 10 year Treasury Constant Maturity Yield. Long Term Interest Rate prior to January 1962 is sourced directly from the Federal Reserve Board.


Related information about United States Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, US Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Treasury Bills: 3 Months was reported at 4.20 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Effective Federal Funds Rate) was set at 4.33 % pa in Feb 2025.

Replication files for "Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation" Authors: Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi Review of Economics and Statistics Date: February 2, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORDERS OF TOPICS .Section 1. We explain the code to replicate all the figures in the paper (except Figure 6) .Section 2. We explain how Figure 6 is constructed .Section 3. We explain how the data are constructed SECTION 1 Replication_Main.m is used to reproduce all the figures of the paper except Figure 6. All the primitive variables are defined in the code and all the steps are commented in code to facilitate the replication of our results. Replication_Main.m, should be run in Matlab. The authors tested it on a DELL XPS 15 7590 laptop wih the follwoing characteristics: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Processor Intel(R) Core(TM) i9-9980HK CPU @ 2.40GHz 2.40 GHz Installed RAM 64.0 GB System type 64-bit operating system, x64-based processor -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It took 2 minutes and 57 seconds for this machine to construct Figures 1, 2, 3, 4a, 4b, 5, 7a, and 7b. The following version of Matlab and Matlab toolboxes has been used for the test: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MATLAB Version: 9.7.0.1190202 (R2019b) MATLAB License Number: 363305 Operating System: Microsoft Windows 10 Enterprise Version 10.0 (Build 19045) Java Version: Java 1.8.0_202-b08 with Oracle Corporation Java HotSpot(TM) 64-Bit Server VM mixed mode -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MATLAB Version 9.7 (R2019b) Financial Toolbox Version 5.14 (R2019b) Optimization Toolbox Version 8.4 (R2019b) Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox Version 11.6 (R2019b) Symbolic Math Toolbox Version 8.4 (R2019b) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The replication code uses auxiliary files and save the pictures in various subfolders: \JL_models: It contains the equations describing the model including the observation equations and routine used to solve the model. To do so, the routine in this folder calls other routines located in some fo the subfolders below. \gensystoama: It contains a set of codes that allow us to solve linear rational expectations models. We use the AMA solver. More information are provided in the file AMASOLVE.m. The codes in this subfolder have been developed by Alejandro Justiniano. \filters: it contains the Kalman filter augmented with a routine to make sure that the zero lower bound constraint for the nominal interest rate is satisfied in every period in our sample. \SteadyStateSolver: It contains a set of routines that are used to solved the steady state of the model numerically. \NLEquations: It contains some of the equations of the model that are log-linearized using the symbolic toolbox of matlab. \NberDates: It contains a set of routines that allows to add shaded area to graphs to denote NBER recessions. \Graphics: It contains useful codes enabling features to construct some of the graphs in the paper. \Data: it contains the data set used in the paper. \Params: It contains a spreadsheet with the values attributes to the model parameters. \VAR_Estimation: It contains the forecasts implied by the Bayesian VAR model of Section 2. The output of Replication_Main.m are the figures of the paper that are stored in the subfolder \Figures SECTION 2 The Excel file "Figure-6.xlsx" is used to create the charts in Figure 6. All three panels of the charts (A, B, and C) plot a measure of unexpected wage inflation against the unemployment rate, then fits separate linear regressions for the periods 1960-1985,1986-2007, and 2008-2009. Unexpected wage inflation is given by the difference between wage growth and a measure of expected wage growth. In all three panels, the unemployment rate used is the civilian unemployment rate (UNRATE), seasonally adjusted, from the BLS. The sheet "Panel A" uses quarterly manufacturing sector average hourly earnings growth data, seasonally adjusted (CES3000000008), from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report as the measure of wage inflation. The unexpected wage inflation is given by the difference between earnings growth at time t and the average of earnings growth across the previous four months. Growth rates are annualized quarterly values. The sheet "Panel B" uses quarterly Nonfarm Business Sector Compensation Per Hour, seasonally adjusted (COMPNFB), from the BLS Productivity and Costs report as its measure of wage inflation. As in Panel A, expected wage inflation is given by the... Visit https://dataone.org/datasets/sha256%3A44c88fe82380bfff217866cac93f85483766eb9364f66cfa03f1ebdaa0408335 for complete metadata about this dataset.

The benchmark interest rate in Norway was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Norway Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Indonesia was last recorded at 5.75 percent. This dataset provides - Indonesia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.