Crude Oil fell to 59.17 USD/Bbl on December 2, 2025, down 0.25% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil's price has fallen 3.08%, and is down 15.40% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Crude Oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Brent fell to 63.05 USD/Bbl on December 2, 2025, down 0.19% from the previous day. Over the past month, Brent's price has fallen 2.84%, and is down 14.36% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Brent crude oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The 2025 annual OPEC basket price stood at ***** U.S. dollars per barrel as of August. This would be lower than the 2024 average, which amounted to ***** U.S. dollars. The abbreviation OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and includes Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates. The aim of the OPEC is to coordinate the oil policies of its member states. It was founded in 1960 in Baghdad, Iraq. The OPEC Reference Basket The OPEC crude oil price is defined by the price of the so-called OPEC (Reference) basket. This basket is an average of prices of the various petroleum blends that are produced by the OPEC members. Some of these oil blends are, for example: Saharan Blend from Algeria, Basra Light from Iraq, Arab Light from Saudi Arabia, BCF 17 from Venezuela, et cetera. By increasing and decreasing its oil production, OPEC tries to keep the price between a given maxima and minima. Benchmark crude oil The OPEC basket is one of the most important benchmarks for crude oil prices worldwide. Other significant benchmarks are UK Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Dubai Crude (Fateh). Because there are many types and grades of oil, such benchmarks are indispensable for referencing them on the global oil market. The 2025 fall in prices was the result of weakened demand outlooks exacerbated by extensive U.S. trade tariffs.

Context

Crude oil is the world's most critical energy source and one of the most actively traded commodities. Its price is a fundamental driver of the global economy, influencing everything from transportation costs and industrial production to inflation rates and geopolitical policy. This dataset tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, a high-quality grade that serves as a primary global benchmark.

Access to reliable, long-term historical data is crucial for economists, traders, and data scientists seeking to model market dynamics, analyze the impact of world events, and forecast economic trends. This dataset provides a comprehensive and daily-updated record of crude oil prices, sourced from the Crude Oil Futures (CL=F) market.

Content

This dataset contains daily price information for Crude Oil Futures (CL=F) in a clean, tabular format. Each row represents a single trading day and includes the following columns:

Date: The date of the trading session (YYYY-MM-DD).

Open: The price at which crude oil first traded for the day in USD per barrel.

High: The highest price reached during the trading day in USD per barrel.

Low: The lowest price reached during the trading day in USD per barrel.

Close: The closing price at the end of the trading day in USD per barrel.

Volume: The total number of futures contracts traded during the day.

Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

This dataset contains daily historical prices for Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Free On Board) measured in dollars per barrel. The data spans from May 20, 1987 to September 29, 2025, providing a comprehensive time series of one of the world's most important crude oil benchmarks.

Brent crude is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. This dataset is valuable for energy market analysis, economic research, commodity trading strategies, and understanding historical oil price trends.

The data was sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information.

License: CC0 1.0 Universal (Public Domain) Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm

Heating Oil rose to 2.35 USD/Gal on December 2, 2025, up 0.21% from the previous day. Over the past month, Heating Oil's price has fallen 2.25%, but it is still 6.31% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Heating oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

As of August 2025, the average annual price of Brent crude oil stood at 71.3 U.S. dollars per barrel. This is over nine U.S. dollars lower than the 2024 average. Brent is the world's leading price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Crude oil is one of the most closely observed commodity prices as it influences costs across all stages of the production process and consequently alters the price of consumer goods as well. What determines crude oil benchmarks? In the past decade, crude oil prices have been especially volatile. Their inherent inelasticity regarding short-term changes in demand and supply means that oil prices are erratic by nature. However, since the 2009 financial crisis, many commercial developments have greatly contributed to price volatility, such as economic growth by BRIC countries like China and India, and the advent of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in the U.S. The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are examples of geopolitical events dictating prices. Light crude oils - Brent and WTI Brent Crude is considered a classification of sweet light crude oil and acts as a benchmark price for oil around the world. It is considered a sweet light crude oil due to its low sulfur content and low density and may be easily refined into gasoline. This oil originates in the North Sea and comprises several different oil blends, including Brent Blend and Ekofisk crude. Often, this crude oil is refined in Northwest Europe. Another sweet light oil often referenced alongside UK Brent is West Texas Intermediate (WTI). WTI oil prices amounted to 76.55 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2024.

You are members of the analytic department in one of the Alberta Oil Sands extraction companies. You are given a current project to collect and clean the data and choose, fit and validate the model for further continuous prediction of demand for the company's products. This will allow the company to assess profitability and to set the appropriate volumes of production.

In short, you need to use the historical data of https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcW.htm in its weekly version, and to predict it for the available weeks of 2021, to evaluate the quality of your prediction and to compose a report for your management. Before working with real data, you first check the intended model on simulated data.

Below we suggest the specific steps of analysis for those who like the detailed instructions. However, these steps may be changed by those who prefer free creativity.

The moral that we are trying to learn in this assignment is that it is easy to forecast series generated by a certain family of models. However, it is hard to forecast the real cases.

We will study the necessary material for the whole semester. However, steps in italic, you can start immediately. I suggest you to start early, because the volume is high.

Part 1. Artificial data

1.1. Simulation.

1.1.1. For ARIMA(p, d, q), set p = 2
d = 1
q = 2
phi_1 = -.2
phi_2 = .15
theta_1 = .3
theta_2 = -.1
sd = 0.03
and generate a series of sample size n = 1000, using this model. 1.1.2. Add a linear trend y(t) = b0 + b1*t, using the coefficients intercept b0 = -1 and slope b1= 0.0015. 1.1.3. Apply an exponential function.

1.2. Exploratory analysis in the order, inverse to the simulation steps.

1.2.1. Divide the generated set into a training set head and a test set tail. 1.2.2. Logarithm the training set series. 1.2.3. Detect a linear trend by regression. Compare the estimated trend parameters to true ones. 1.2.4. Detrend the series. 1.2.5. In the same axes, plot the original ARIMA simulation and the current (trended, exponentiated, logarithmed and finally detrended) series. They should have the same shape, but differ by a bit of shift and stretch. 1.2.6. ARIMA fit. 1.2.6.1. By 3 nested loops over p, d and q between 0 and 3, print all values of AIC in 3 4-by-4-tables. Choose the triple, minimizing AIC. Compare it to the true (p, d, q) triple and comment. 1.2.6.2. Fit the model by auto.arima command. Comment on its choice of p, d and q, comparing to true values and those chosen by triple loop. 1.2.6.3. Leave out those attempts of order estimations and choose the true (p, d, q) triple. Fit ARIMA(2, 1, 2), using the function forecast::Arima, to the training data. 1.2.7. Compare the estimated ARIMA parameters to true ones. Comment on goodness of fit.

1.3. Forecasting the simulated series.

1.3.1. Forecast the testing part of the ARIMA, using forecast::forecast function. 1.3.2. Add the estimated trend. 1.3.3. Exponentiate that trended forecast.

1.4. Evaluation of the results

1.4.1. Plot the forecast values, prediction interval, and the real testing set in the same axes. 1.4.2. Plot acf of the testing set and its prediction, and ccf between them. 1.4.3. Plot the residuals and their acf. 1.4.4. Estimate the forecast error.

Part 2. Real data.

2.1. Data sourcing and visualization.

2.1.1. Read the dataset https://www.kaggle.com/statistics101guy/wti-spot-price-fob-dollars-per-barrel 2.1.2. Plot the series and its acf.

2.2. Exploratory analysis

2.2.1. Divide the series into a training set (up to 2020 inclusively) and testing set (2021). 2.2.2. Logarithm the series. 2.2.3. Estimate the linear trend by the least squares procedure. 2.2.4. Detrend the series. 2.2.5. By “auto.arima” command of “forecast” library, fit ARIMA(p, d, q) to the training data.

2.3. Forecasting in the order, inverse to the exploratory analysis steps

2.3.1. Using the “forecast” function of the “forecast” library, forecast your ARIMA model for the period of testing set. 2.3.2. Extrapolate your linear trend to this period and add it to your ARIMA forecast. 2.3.3. Exponentiate the result.

2.4. Evaluation of the forecast quality

2.4.1. Plot the forecast values, prediction interval, and the real testing set in the same axes. 2.4.2. Plot acf of the testing set and its prediction, and ccf between them. 2.4.3. Plot the residuals and their acf. 2.4.4. Estimate the forecast error. 2.4.5. Comment on the results

Part 3. Reporting

3.1. Compose a business report of about 10 pages length, following the approximate structure:

3.1.1. Title page, listing the group members, project title, school, course, submission date. 3.1.2. Executive summary, containing your view of the problem setting, brief description of the intended analysis and all that usually pertains to this section 3.1.3. Ana...

Graph and download economic data for Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe (DCOILBRENTEU) from 1987-05-20 to 2025-11-03 about crude, oil, Europe, commodities, and price.

United Kingdom BOE Forecast: Brent Crude Oil Price data was reported at 71.000 USD/Barrel in 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 74.000 USD/Barrel for 2020. United Kingdom BOE Forecast: Brent Crude Oil Price data is updated yearly, averaging 72.500 USD/Barrel from Dec 2014 (Median) to 2021, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 81.000 USD/Barrel in 2018 and a record low of 43.000 USD/Barrel in 2015. United Kingdom BOE Forecast: Brent Crude Oil Price data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.P009: Crude Oil and Gas Prices: Forecast.

Urals Oil fell to 54.22 USD/Bbl on December 1, 2025, down 0.37% from the previous day. Over the past month, Urals Oil's price has fallen 7.52%, and is down 17.95% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Urals Crude.

Palm Oil rose to 4,134 MYR/T on December 2, 2025, up 1.00% from the previous day. Over the past month, Palm Oil's price has risen 0.46%, but it is still 18.56% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Palm Oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Indonesia Crude Oil Price: BD Karapan Condensate data was reported at 71.330 USD/Barrel in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 74.460 USD/Barrel for Feb 2025. Indonesia Crude Oil Price: BD Karapan Condensate data is updated monthly, averaging 79.380 USD/Barrel from Oct 2022 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 30 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 92.030 USD/Barrel in Sep 2023 and a record low of 70.400 USD/Barrel in Jun 2023. Indonesia Crude Oil Price: BD Karapan Condensate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Directorate General of Oil and Gas. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Energy Sector – Table ID.RBH003: Crude Oil Price.

Gasoline fell to 1.86 USD/Gal on December 2, 2025, down 0.53% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gasoline's price has fallen 2.79%, and is down 4.95% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gasoline - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Crude Oil Production in Iran decreased to 3209 BBL/D/1K in October from 3275 BBL/D/1K in September of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Iran Crude Oil Production - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Sunflower Oil rose to 1,426.40 INR/10 kg on December 2, 2025, up 0.68% from the previous day. Over the past month, Sunflower Oil's price has risen 0.79%, and is up 8.44% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Sunflower Oil.

Switzerland Brent Crude Oil Price data was reported at 75.710 USD/Barrel in Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 82.790 USD/Barrel for Sep 2018. Switzerland Brent Crude Oil Price data is updated monthly, averaging 25.785 USD/Barrel from Jan 1970 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 586 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 139.390 USD/Barrel in Jun 2008 and a record low of 2.230 USD/Barrel in Dec 1970. Switzerland Brent Crude Oil Price data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Swiss National Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Switzerland – Table CH.P002: Fuel Prices.

Canada has abundant resources of crude oil, with an estimated remaining ultimate potential of 52.3 106m³ (329 billion barrels) as of December 2017. Of this, oil sands account for 92 per cent. There are two major producing areas in Canada, the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, which includes Alberta, Saskatchewan and parts of British Columbia and Manitoba, and offshore eastern Canada. Oil is also produced in modest volumes in Ontario and the Northwest Territories. Although Canada was the 4th largest producer in the world in 2018, it produces only about five per cent of total daily production, so it does not have a major influence on the world oil prices. In 2018, 96 per cent of Canadian crude exports went to the U.S. The Canada Energy Regulator regulates the export of crude oil. Holders of export authorizations report monthly statistics on export activities. This dataset provides historical export volumes of crude oil (by year and month), and by either type of oil or by destination of export.

Crude Oil Production in Sudan remained unchanged at 30 BBL/D/1K in July. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sudan Crude Oil Production - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Sri Lanka Petroleum Price: Average: Crude Oil data was reported at 8,817.000 LKR/Barrel in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 6,757.000 LKR/Barrel for 2016. Sri Lanka Petroleum Price: Average: Crude Oil data is updated yearly, averaging 3,803.000 LKR/Barrel from Dec 1991 (Median) to 2017, with 27 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14,416.000 LKR/Barrel in 2012 and a record low of 803.000 LKR/Barrel in 1992. Sri Lanka Petroleum Price: Average: Crude Oil data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sri Lanka – Table LK.P008: Petroleum Price.