Consumer Confidence in the United States decreased to 58.20 points in August from 61.70 points in July of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Michigan Consumer Expectations in the United States decreased to 55.90 points in August from 57.70 points in July of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Consumer Expectations.

This data set contains the data used in the research project "Cognitive Biases in Consumer Sentiment: the Peak-End Rule and Herding". The following files and items are includedICSdata.xlsx: Index of Consumer Sentiment and its constituents (sheet 1), and PAGO per region (sheet 2); original source University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ALFRED_data: macro economic series related to economic growth, inflation, (un)employment and consumption, including publication date; original source ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data (ALFRED), https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/; for each series a README sheet is included with metadataFREDdata: financial and economic series related to stock, bond, housing markets, interest rates,gasoline prices and regional unemployment rates; each sheet contains the mnemonic of the donwloaded series.MicroData_20220113: demographic information of each respondent in the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan; downloaded from University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Prelim_PA.xlsx: the Index of Consumer Sentiment and its constituent series, as reported in the preliminary annoucement by the University of Michigan (prelim), and the series constructed based on the surveys after the preliminary announcements. The prelim series are publicly available via https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ . The pa series have been constructed based on interview datas obtains from the University of Michigan. These data are proprietory and cannot be shared freely.DemographicDifferences.xlsx: average differences between the prelim and pa monthly subsample in the demographic statistics available in MicroData_20220113.xlsx. The difference have been constructed based on interview datas obtains from the University of Michigan. These data are proprietory and cannot be shared freely.Methodology: Linear regressions and time-series methods.Findings: We show that two heuristics, the peak-end rule and herding, generate biases in indexes of consumer sentiment. Both affect respondents' assessment of changes in their financial position over the past year. Conform the peak-end rule, their answers relate more to extreme detrimental monthly than to yearly changes in key financial and macro variables. These effects are stronger for more salient variables. As for herding, we document that respondents interviewed in the second round about past financial changes rely too strongly on future expectations from first-round respondents. These effects persist when we account for structural differences in sample composition or for the effect of other predictive variables. Our research shows the presence of both biases outside controlled environments and sheds new light on the relevance of sentiment indexes.

United States Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data was reported at 97.500 1966=100 in Dec 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 97.500 1966=100 for Nov 2018. United States Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data is updated monthly, averaging 89.600 1966=100 from Jan 1978 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 492 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 112.000 1966=100 in Jan 2000 and a record low of 51.700 1966=100 in May 1980. United States Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H025: Consumer Sentiment Index.

CSI: Current Personal Finance data was reported at 135.000 1966=100 in Sep 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 133.000 1966=100 for Aug 2018. CSI: Current Personal Finance data is updated monthly, averaging 111.000 1966=100 from Jan 1978 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 489 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 142.000 1966=100 in Mar 2018 and a record low of 58.000 1966=100 in Aug 2009. CSI: Current Personal Finance data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H025: Consumer Sentiment Index. The question was: We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Michigan Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 4.80 percent in August from 4.50 percent in July of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Inflation Expectations.

Michigan Current Economic Conditions in the United States decreased to 61.70 points in August from 68 points in July of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Current Economic Conditions.

United States CSI: Income Level: Lower Third data was reported at 87.300 1966=100 in Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 96.300 1966=100 for Sep 2018. United States CSI: Income Level: Lower Third data is updated monthly, averaging 80.000 1966=100 from Oct 1979 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 469 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 104.400 1966=100 in Feb 2000 and a record low of 45.200 1966=100 in May 1980. United States CSI: Income Level: Lower Third data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.H025: Consumer Sentiment Index.

Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.50 percent in August from 3.40 percent in July of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

Context

This dataset was built using the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's State Coincident Indices and the Bry-Boschan Method for business cycle dating. In the tradition of Owyang, Piger, et al. business cycles are calculated on the state level which provides interesting analysis opportunities for looking at recession timing for different regions or sectors present in different states. The MSA level data utilizes the Economic Coincident Indices available on the St. Louis FRED website and uses a variant of the non-parametric algorithm described in Metro Business Cycles (Arias et al. 2016) to date MSA level recessions.

Content

This data is from 1982 through 2018 and includes whether the economy is in a recession or not, with forward looking and backward looking data available for observations as well. Additionally, various FRED St. Louis series were joined, like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Global Price of Brent Crude. The 2012 value added as a percent for different NAICS groups is included as well for sectoral analysis, although better data over time for this would prove beneficial. The industries file attempts to correct this, but has fewer years available.

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to the researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and St. Louis for collecting and making available much of the data that went into this dataset.

Inspiration

I was inspired by researchers that have attempted to take business cycle dating to the state and MSA level. Local business cycle dating methodologies allow for a more robust understanding of what goes into a recession and how sectoral composition can affect a state or MSA's "resilience" to recessions. This could have applications for weighting business cycle risk for companies based on geographic dispersion of customers, as well as local policymakers if local forecasting could be done successfully.

CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: Don't Know data was reported at 1.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: Don't Know data is updated monthly, averaging 1.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 % in May 1978 and a record low of 0.000 % in Feb 2018. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: Don't Know data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: How about people out of work during the coming 12 months -- do you think there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, or less?

CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Don’t Know data was reported at 2.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Don’t Know data is updated monthly, averaging 2.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.000 % in Feb 1978 and a record low of 0.000 % in Nov 2017. CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Don’t Know data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: No one can say for sure, but what do you think will happen to interest rates for borrowing money during the next 12 months -- will they go up, stay the same, or go down?

CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: More data was reported at 24.000 % in May 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 25.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: More data is updated monthly, averaging 31.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 72.000 % in May 1980 and a record low of 13.000 % in May 1983. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: More data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: How about people out of work during the coming 12 months -- do you think there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, or less?

The Survey of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior series (also known as the Surveys of Consumers) was undertaken to measure changes in consumer attitudes and expectations, to understand why such changes occur, and to evaluate how they relate to consumer decisions to save, borrow, or make discretionary purchases. The data regularly include the Index of Consumer Sentiment, the Index of Current Economic Conditions, and the Index of Consumer Expectations. Since the 1940s, these surveys have been produced quarterly through 1977 and monthly thereafter. The surveys conducted in 2007 focused on topics such as evaluations and expectations about personal finances, employment, price changes, and the national business situation. Opinions were collected regarding respondents' appraisals of present market conditions for purchasing houses, automobiles, and other durables. Also explored in this survey were respondents' types of savings and financial investments, loan use, family income, general feelings, and retirement planning. Other topics in this series typically include ownership, lease, and use of automobiles, respondents' use of personal computers at home and in the office, and respondents' familiarity with and use of the Internet. Demographic information includes ethnic origin, sex, age, marital status, and education.

These surveys were done to measure changes in consumer attitudes and expectations, to understand why these changes occur, and to evaluate how they relate to consumer decisions to save, borrow, or make discretionary purchases. This type of information is essential for forecasting changes in aggregate consumer behavior. Each quarterly survey contains approximately 40 questions, each of which probes a different aspect of consumer confidence. Open-ended questions are asked concerning evaluations and expectations about personal finances, employment, price changes, and the national business situation. Additional questions probe buying intentions for automobiles and the respondent's appraisals of present market conditions for purchasing houses, automobiles, and other durables.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Variance data was reported at 9.000 % in May 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 10.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Variance data is updated monthly, averaging 23.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 133.000 % in Apr 1980 and a record low of 7.000 % in Apr 1999. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Variance data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data was reported at 1.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data is updated monthly, averaging 3.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 23.000 % in Dec 2008 and a record low of 0.000 % in Oct 1999. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

CSI: Government Economic Policy: Good Job data was reported at 28.000 % in May 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 30.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Government Economic Policy: Good Job data is updated monthly, averaging 19.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 49.000 % in Mar 1999 and a record low of 4.000 % in Dec 2008. CSI: Government Economic Policy: Good Job data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: As to the economic policy of the government -- I mean steps taken to fight inflation or unemployment -- would you say the government is going a good job, only fair, or a poor job?

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data was reported at 3.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data is updated monthly, averaging 4.000 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to May 2018, with 380 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.000 % in Jul 1982 and a record low of 1.000 % in Nov 2017. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data was reported at 2.400 % in Jul 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.600 % for Jun 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data is updated monthly, averaging 2.900 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to Jul 2018, with 382 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.700 % in Feb 1980 and a record low of 2.300 % in Dec 2016. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'