Analysis of ‘💉 Opioid Overdose Deaths’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/yamqwe/opioid-overdose-deathse on 13 February 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

About this dataset

Opioid addiction and death rates in the U.S. and abroad have reached "epidemic" levels. The CDC's data reflects the incredible spike in overdoses caused by drugs containing opioids.

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of drug overdose (poisoning) deaths. Since 2000, the rate of deaths from drug overdoses has increased 137%, including a 200% increase in the rate of overdose deaths involving opioids (opioid pain relievers and heroin). Source: CDC

In-the-News:

• STAT: 26 overdoses in just hours: Inside a community on the front lines of the opioid epidemic
• NPR: Organ Donations Spike In The Wake Of The Opioid Epidemic, Deadly Opioid Overwhelms First Responders And Crime Labs in Ohio
• Scientific American: Wave of Overdoses with Little-Known Drug Raises Alarm Amid Opioid Crisis
• Washington Post: A 7-year-old told her bus driver she couldn’t wake her parents. Police found them dead at home.
• Wall Street Journal: For Small-Town Cops, Opioid Scourge Hits Close to Home
• Food & Drug Administration: FDA launches competition to spur innovative technologies to help reduce opioid overdose deaths

This data was compiled using the CDC's WONDER database. Opioid overdose deaths are defined as: deaths in which the underlying cause was drug overdose, and the ICD-10 code used was any of the following: T40.0 (Opium), T40.1 (Heroin), T40.2 (Other opioids), T40.3 (Methadone), T40.4 (Other synthetic narcotics), T40.6 (Other and unspecified narcotics).

Age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths and drug overdose deaths involving opioids
http://i.imgur.com/ObpzUKq.gif" alt="Opioid Death Rate" style="">
Source: CDC

What are opioids?
Opioids are substances that act on opioid receptors to produce morphine-like effects. Opioids are most often used medically to relieve pain. Opioids include opiates, an older term that refers to such drugs derived from opium, including morphine itself. Other opioids are semi-synthetic and synthetic drugs such as hydrocodone, oxycodone and fentanyl; antagonist drugs such as naloxone and endogenous peptides such as the endorphins.[4] The terms opiate and narcotic are sometimes encountered as synonyms for opioid. Source: Wikipedia

contributors-wanted See comment in Discussion

Footnotes

• The crude rate is per 100,000.
• Certain totals are hidden due to suppression constraints. More Information: http://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/help/faq.html#Privacy.
• The population figures are briged-race estimates. The exceptions being years 2000 and 2010, in which Census counts are used.
• v1.1: Added Opioid Prescriptions Dispensed by US Retailers in that year (millions).

Citation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Multiple Cause of Death 1999-2014 on CDC WONDER Online Database, released 2015. Data are from the Multiple Cause of Death Files, 1999-2014, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html on Oct 19, 2016 2:06:38 PM.

Citation for Opioid Prescription Data: IMS Health, Vector One: National, years 1991-1996, Data Extracted 2011. IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, years 1997-2013, Data Extracted 2014. Accessed at NIDA article linked (Figure 1) on Oct 23, 2016.

Data Use Restrictions:
The Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 242m(d)) provides that the data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) may be used only for the purpose for which they were obtained; any effort to determine the identity of any reported cases, or to use the information for any purpose other than for health statistical reporting and analysis, is against the law. Therefore users will:
Use these data for health statistical reporting and analysis only.
For sub-national geography, do not present or publish death counts of 9 or fewer or death rates based on counts of nine or fewer (in figures, graphs, maps, tables, etc.).
Make no attempt to learn the identity of any person or establishment included in these data.
Make no disclosure or other use of the identity of any person or establishment discovered inadvertently and advise the NCHS Confidentiality Officer of any such discovery.
Eve Powell-Griner, Confidentiality Officer
National Center for Health Statistics
3311 Toledo Road, Rm 7116
Hyattsville, MD 20782
Telephone 301-458-4257 Fax 301-458-4021

This dataset was created by Health and contains around 800 samples along with Crude Rate, Crude Rate Lower 95% Confidence Interval, technical information and other features such as: - Year - Deaths - and more.

How to use this dataset

• Analyze Crude Rate Upper 95% Confidence Interval in relation to Prescriptions Dispensed By Us Retailers In That Year (millions)
• Study the influence of State on Crude Rate
• More datasets

Acknowledgements

If you use this dataset in your research, please credit Health

Start A New Notebook!

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

This data contains provisional counts for drug overdose deaths based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. Counts for the most recent final annual data are provided for comparison. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia as of the date specified and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period. Provisional counts are often incomplete and causes of death may be pending investigation (see Technical notes) resulting in an underestimate relative to final counts. To address this, methods were developed to adjust provisional counts for reporting delays by generating a set of predicted provisional counts (see Technical notes). Starting in June 2018, this monthly data release will include both reported and predicted provisional counts.

The provisional data include: (a) the reported and predicted provisional counts of deaths due to drug overdose occurring nationally and in each jurisdiction; (b) the percentage changes in provisional drug overdose deaths for the current 12 month-ending period compared with the 12-month period ending in the same month of the previous year, by jurisdiction; and (c) the reported and predicted provisional counts of drug overdose deaths involving specific drugs or drug classes occurring nationally and in selected jurisdictions. The reported and predicted provisional counts represent the numbers of deaths due to drug overdose occurring in the 12-month periods ending in the month indicated. These counts include all seasons of the year and are insensitive to variations by seasonality. Deaths are reported by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred.

Several data quality metrics, including the percent completeness in overall death reporting, percentage of deaths with cause of death pending further investigation, and the percentage of drug overdose deaths with specific drugs or drug classes reported are included to aid in interpretation of provisional data as these measures are related to the accuracy of provisional counts (see Technical notes). Reporting of the specific drugs and drug classes involved in drug overdose deaths varies by jurisdiction, and comparisons of death rates involving specific drugs across selected jurisdictions should not be made (see Technical notes). Provisional data will be updated on a monthly basis as additional records are received.

Technical notes

Nature and sources of data

Provisional drug overdose death counts are based on death records received and processed by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) as of a specified cutoff date. The cutoff date is generally the first Sunday of each month. National provisional estimates include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia. NCHS receives the death records from state vital registration offices through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program (VSCP).

The timeliness of provisional mortality surveillance data in the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) database varies by cause of death. The lag time (i.e., the time between when the death occurred and when the data are available for analysis) is longer for drug overdose deaths compared with other causes of death (1). Thus, provisional estimates of drug overdose deaths are reported 6 months after the date of death.

Provisional death counts presented in this data visualization are for “12-month ending periods,” defined as the number of deaths occurring in the 12-month period ending in the month indicated. For example, the 12-month ending period in June 2017 would include deaths occurring from July 1, 2016, through June 30, 2017. The 12-month ending period counts include all seasons of the year and are insensitive to reporting variations by seasonality. Counts for the 12-month period ending in the same month of the previous year are shown for comparison. These provisional counts of drug overdose deaths and related data quality metrics are provided for public health surveillance and monitoring of emerging trends. Provisional drug overdose death data are often incomplete, and the degree of completeness varies by jurisdiction and 12-month ending period. Consequently, the numbers of drug overdose deaths are underestimated based on provisional data relative to final data and are subject to random variation. Methods to adjust provisional counts have been developed to provide predicted provisional counts of drug overdose deaths, accounting for delayed reporting (see Percentage of records pending investigation and Adjustments for delayed reporting).

Provisional data are based on available records that meet certain data quality criteria at the time of analysis and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period. Therefore, they should not be considered comparable with final data and are subject to change.

Cause-of-death classification and definition of drug deaths
Mortality statistics are compiled in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) regulations specifying that WHO member nations classify and code causes of death with the current revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD). ICD provides the basic guidance used in virtually all countries to code and classify causes of death. It provides not only disease, injury, and poisoning categories but also the rules used to select the single underlying cause of death for tabulation from the several diagnoses that may be reported on a single death certificate, as well as definitions, tabulation lists, the format of the death certificate, and regulations on use of the classification. Causes of death for data presented in this report were coded according to ICD guidelines described in annual issues of Part 2a of the NCHS Instruction Manual (2).

Drug overdose deaths are identified using underlying cause-of-death codes from the Tenth Revision of ICD (ICD–10): X40–X44 (unintentional), X60–X64 (suicide), X85 (homicide), and Y10–Y14 (undetermined). Drug overdose deaths involving selected drug categories are identified by specific multiple cause-of-death codes. Drug categories presented include: heroin (T40.1); natural opioid analgesics, including morphine and codeine, and semisynthetic opioids, including drugs such as oxycodone, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, and oxymorphone (T40.2); methadone, a synthetic opioid (T40.3); synthetic opioid analgesics other than methadone, including drugs such as fentanyl and tramadol (T40.4); cocaine (T40.5); and psychostimulants with abuse potential, which includes methamphetamine (T43.6). Opioid overdose deaths are identified by the presence of any of the following MCOD codes: opium (T40.0); heroin (T40.1); natural opioid analgesics (T40.2); methadone (T40.3); synthetic opioid analgesics other than methadone (T40.4); or other and unspecified narcotics (T40.6). This latter category includes drug overdose deaths where ‘opioid’ is reported without more specific information to assign a more specific ICD–10 code (T40.0–T40.4) (3,4). Among deaths with an underlying cause of drug overdose, the percentage with at least one drug or drug class specified is defined as that with at least one ICD–10 multiple cause-of-death code in the range T36–T50.8.

Drug overdose deaths may involve multiple drugs; therefore, a single death might be included in more than one category when describing the number of drug overdose deaths involving specific drugs. For example, a death that involved both heroin and fentanyl would be included in both the number of drug overdose deaths involving heroin and the number of drug overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids other than methadone.

Selection of specific states and other jurisdictions to report
Provisional counts are presented by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred (i.e., the reporting jurisdiction). Data quality and timeliness for drug overdose deaths vary by reporting jurisdiction. Provisional counts are presented for reporting jurisdictions based on measures of data quality: the percentage of records where the manner of death is listed as “pending investigation,” the overall completeness of the data, and the percentage of drug overdose death records with specific drugs or drug classes recorded. These criteria are defined below.

Percentage of records pending investigation

Drug overdose deaths often require lengthy investigations, and death certificates may be initially filed with a manner of death “pending investigation” and/or with a preliminary or unknown cause of death. When the percentage of records reported as “pending investigation” is high for a given jurisdiction, the number of drug overdose deaths is likely to be underestimated. For jurisdictions reporting fewer than 1% of records as “pending investigation”, the provisional number of drug overdose deaths occurring in the fourth quarter of 2015 was approximately 5% lower than the final count of drug overdose deaths occurring in that same time period. For jurisdictions reporting greater than 1% of records as “pending investigation” the provisional counts of drug overdose deaths may underestimate the final count of drug overdose deaths by as much as 30%. Thus, jurisdictions are included in Table 2 if 1% or fewer of their records in NVSS are reported as “pending investigation,” following a 6-month lag for the 12-month ending periods included in the dashboard. Values for records pending investigation are updated with each monthly release and reflect the most current data available.

Percent completeness

NCHS receives monthly counts of the estimated number of deaths from each jurisdictional vital registration offices (referred to as “control counts”). This number represents the best estimate of how many

We collect data and report statistics on opioid, stimulant, and other substance use and their impact on health and well-being.

ObjectiveU.S. drug-related overdose deaths and Emergency Department (ED) visits rose in 2020 and again in 2021. Many academic studies and the news media attributed this rise primarily to increased drug use resulting from the societal disruptions related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A competing explanation is that higher overdose deaths and ED visits may have reflected a continuation of pre-pandemic trends in synthetic-opioid deaths, which began to rise in mid-2019. We assess the evidence on whether increases in overdose deaths and ED visits are likely to be related primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic, increased synthetic-opioid use, or some of both.MethodsWe use national data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on rolling 12-month drug-related deaths (2015–2021); CDC data on monthly ED visits (2019-September 2020) for EDs in 42 states; and ED visit data for 181 EDs in 24 states staffed by a national ED physician staffing group (January 2016-June 2022). We study drug overdose deaths per 100,000 persons during the pandemic period, and ED visits for drug overdoses, in both cases compared to predicted levels based on pre-pandemic trends.ResultsMortality. National overdose mortality increased from 21/100,000 in 2019 to 26/100,000 in 2020 and 30/100,000 in 2021. The rise in mortality began in mid-to-late half of 2019, and the 2020 increase is well-predicted by models that extrapolate pre-pandemic trends for rolling 12-month mortality to the pandemic period. Placebo analyses (which assume the pandemic started earlier or later than March 2020) do not provide evidence for a change in trend in or soon after March 2020. State-level analyses of actual mortality, relative to mortality predicted based on pre-pandemic trends, show no consistent pattern. The state-level results support state heterogeneity in overdose mortality trends, and do not support the pandemic being a major driver of overdose mortality.ED visits. ED overdose visits rose during our sample period, reflecting a worsening opioid epidemic, but rose at similar rates during the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.ConclusionThe reasons for rising overdose mortality in 2020 and 2021 cannot be definitely determined. We lack a control group and thus cannot assess causation. However, the observed increases can be largely explained by a continuation of pre-pandemic trends toward rising synthetic-opioid deaths, principally fentanyl, that began in mid-to-late 2019. We do not find evidence supporting the pandemic as a major driver of rising mortality. Policymakers need to directly address the synthetic opioid epidemic, and not expect a respite as the pandemic recedes.

Left hand columns: CDC data from 42 states for ratio of non-fatal drug-related ED visits in Jan.-Sept. 2020. Table shows ratio of visits during 2020 to visits during same month in 2019. Right hand columns: Data from ED staffing company on drug-related ED visits to 181 EDs in 24 states over January 2017-June 2022. Table shows average for indicated periods of monthly ratios of visits in January 2017-February 2020 to visits in the same months a year earlier and March-December 2020 and January 2021-June 2022 to visits in the same months in 2019. Ratios are computed at the ED level and then averaged across EDs within each month. 95% confidence intervals are reported in brackets. Last row shows average ratio of opioid/related ED visits to all overdose visits for the months in the indicated period.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has prepared a public data set, the Medicare Part D Opioid Prescriber Summary File, which presents information on the individual opioid prescribing rates of health providers that participate in Medicare Part D program. This file is a prescriber-level data set that provides data on the number and percentage of prescription claims (includes new prescriptions and refills) for opioid drugs, and contains information on each provider’s name, specialty, state, and ZIP code. This summary file was derived from the 2015 Part D Prescriber Summary Table (Documentation available at: https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/Medicare-Provider-Charge-Data/Downloads/Prescriber_Methods.pdf

No missing data.

Age1 at death according to ICD-10 cause of mortality among 1,275 convicted offenders from BC, 1998–2015.