The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Content

Effective Date Data before 1975 represent the date of the New York Fed discount rate change, data after 1975 represent the date of the first Federal Reserve bank discount rate change. Source: Board of Governors: Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914-1941, and 1941-1970; the Annual Statistical Digest, 1970-1979; and the Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1978 - January 8, 2003.

Please refer to http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20030106/default.htm for further information on the discontinuation of this series effective January 9, 2003.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the Federal Reserve organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1934-02-02

• Observation End : 2002-11-06

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Gift Habeshaw on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

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To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

Effective Federal Funds Rate in the United States increased to 3.89 percent on Friday November 28 from 3.88 in the previous day. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Effective Federal Funds Rate.

United States US: Discount Rate: End of Period data was reported at 1.500 % pa in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.250 % pa for 2016. United States US: Discount Rate: End of Period data is updated yearly, averaging 4.500 % pa from Dec 1950 (Median) to 2017, with 68 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.870 % pa in 1980 and a record low of 0.500 % pa in 2009. United States US: Discount Rate: End of Period data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.IMF.IFS: Money Market and Policy Rates: Annual.

The benchmark interest rate in Pakistan was last recorded at 11 percent. This dataset provides - Pakistan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Monthly and long-term United States Interest Rate data: historical series and analyst forecasts curated by FocusEconomics.

Context

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to promote conditions that achieve the mandate set by the Congress — high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and moderate long-term interest rates. Interest rates set by the Fed directly influence the cost of borrowing money. Lower interest rates encourage more people to obtain a mortgage for a new home or to borrow money for an automobile or for home improvement. Lower rates encourage businesses to borrow funds to invest in expansion such as purchasing new equipment, updating plants, or hiring more workers. Higher interest rates restrain such borrowing by consumers and businesses.

Content

This dataset includes data on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate is determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate; the target rate transitioned to a target range with an upper and lower limit in December 2008. The real gross domestic product is calculated as the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the gross domestic product based on chained 2009 dollars. The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force. The inflation rate reflects the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index of products excluding food and energy.

Acknowledgements

The interest rate data was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal. The gross domestic product data was provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the unemployment and consumer price index data was provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inspiration

How does economic growth, unemployment, and inflation impact the Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions? How has the interest rate policy changed over time? Can you predict the Federal Reserve's next decision? Will the target range set in March 2017 be increased, decreased, or remain the same?

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 7.25 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.50 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

These rates are the daily secondary market quotation on the most recently auctioned Treasury Bills for each maturity tranche (4-week, 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week) that Treasury currently issues new Bills. Market quotations are obtained at approximately 3:30 PM each business day by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Bank Discount rate is the rate at which a Bill is quoted in the secondary market and is based on the par value, amount of the discount and a 360-day year. The Coupon Equivalent, also called the Bond Equivalent, or the Investment Yield, is the bill's yield based on the purchase price, discount, and a 365- or 366-day year. The Coupon Equivalent can be used to compare the yield on a discount bill to the yield on a nominal coupon bond that pays semiannual interest.

This dataset provides a comprehensive collection of key U.S. macroeconomic indicators spanning the past 25 years (approximately 1998–2023). It includes monthly data on:

M2 Money Supply (M2SL): A broad measure of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS): The interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds with each other overnight. Interest Rates: Various benchmark interest rates relevant to economic analysis. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (GS10): Reflects market expectations for long-term interest rates and economic growth. All data are sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database and are seasonally adjusted where applicable.

This dataset is ideal for economic research, financial modeling, market forecasting, and machine learning applications where macroeconomic variables are relevant. The data is cleaned, merged, and formatted for immediate use, with date-stamped entries aligned on a monthly frequency.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

License: CC0: Public Domain

The benchmark interest rate in Canada was last recorded at 2.25 percent. This dataset provides - Canada Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 16.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The interest rate set by the Federal Reserve is a crucial tool for promoting economic conditions that meet the mandate established by the United States Congress, which includes high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and the moderation of long-term interest rates. The interest rates determined by the Fed directly influence the cost of credit, making financing either more accessible or more restrictive. When interest rates are low, there is a greater incentive for consumers to purchase homes through mortgages, finance automobiles, or undertake home renovations. Additionally, businesses are encouraged to invest in expanding their operations, whether by purchasing new equipment, modernizing facilities, or hiring more workers. Conversely, higher interest rates tend to curb such activity, discouraging borrowing and slowing economic expansion.

The dataset analyzed contains information on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954, including the federal funds rate, which represents the percentage at which financial institutions trade reserves held at the Federal Reserve with each other in the interbank market overnight. This rate is determined by the market but is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the established target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate target, which has been defined within a range with upper and lower limits since December 2008.

Furthermore, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is calculated based on the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the economy, using chained 2009 dollars as a reference. The unemployment rate represents the seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Meanwhile, the inflation rate is determined by the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy prices for a more stable analysis of core inflation.

The interest rate data was sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal, while GDP information was provided by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and unemployment and inflation data were made available by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The analysis of this data helps to understand how economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Additionally, it allows for a study of the evolution of interest rate policies over time and raises the question of how predictable the Fed’s future decisions may be. Based on observed trends, it is possible to speculate whether the target range set in March 2017 will be maintained, lowered, or increased, considering the prevailing economic context and the challenges faced in conducting U.S. monetary policy.

Content

Series is calculated as the spread between 6-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TB6MS) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS).

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1958-12-01

• Observation End : 2019-11-01

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Matt Briney on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

The benchmark interest rate in Taiwan was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Taiwan Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Turkey was last recorded at 39.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.