The Global Population Count Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The grids were created by using rates of population change between decades from the coarser resolution History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) database to back-cast the GRUMPv1 population count grids. Mismatches between the spatial extent of the HYDE calculated rates and GRUMPv1 population data were resolved via infilling rate cells based on a focal mean of values. Finally, the grids were adjusted so that the population totals for each country equaled the UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision) estimates for that country for the respective year (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). These data do not represent census observations for the years prior to 2000, and therefore can at best be thought of as estimations of the populations in given locations. The population grids are consistent internally within the time series, but are not recommended for use in creating longer time series with any other population grids, including GRUMPv1, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), or non-SEDAC developed population grids. These population grids served as an input to SEDAC's Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000 data set.

Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.

The Global Population Count Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The grids were created by using rates of population change between decades from the coarser resolution History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) database to back-cast the GRUMPv1 population count grids. Mismatches between the spatial extent of the HYDE calculated rates and GRUMPv1 population data were resolved via infilling rate cells based on a focal mean of values. Finally, the grids were adjusted so that the population totals for each country equaled the UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision) estimates for that country for the respective year (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). These data do not represent census observations for the years prior to 2000, and therefore can at best be thought of as estimations of the populations in given locations. The population grids are consistent internally within the time series, but are not recommended for use in creating longer time series with any other population grids, including GRUMPv1, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), or non-SEDAC developed population grids. These population grids served as an input to SEDAC's Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000 data set. To provide back-cast population count estimates at 30 arc-second (~1 km) resolution.

The world population surpassed eight billion people in 2022, having doubled from its figure less than 50 years previously. Looking forward, it is projected that the world population will reach nine billion in 2038, and 10 billion in 2060, but it will peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before it then goes into decline. Regional variations The global population has seen rapid growth since the early 1800s, due to advances in areas such as food production, healthcare, water safety, education, and infrastructure, however, these changes did not occur at a uniform time or pace across the world. Broadly speaking, the first regions to undergo their demographic transitions were Europe, North America, and Oceania, followed by Latin America and Asia (although Asia's development saw the greatest variation due to its size), while Africa was the last continent to undergo this transformation. Because of these differences, many so-called "advanced" countries are now experiencing population decline, particularly in Europe and East Asia, while the fastest population growth rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, the roughly two billion difference in population between now and the 2080s' peak will be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, which will rise from 1.2 billion to 3.2 billion in this time (although populations in other continents will also fluctuate). Changing projections The United Nations releases their World Population Prospects report every 1-2 years, and this is widely considered the foremost demographic dataset in the world. However, recent years have seen a notable decline in projections when the global population will peak, and at what number. Previous reports in the 2010s had suggested a peak of over 11 billion people, and that population growth would continue into the 2100s, however a sooner and shorter peak is now projected. Reasons for this include a more rapid population decline in East Asia and Europe, particularly China, as well as a prolonged development arc in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Global Population of the World (GPW) translates census population data to a latitude-longitude grid so that population data may be used in cross-disciplinary studies. There are three data files with this data set for the reference years 1990 and 1995. Over 127,000 administrative units and population counts were collected and integrated from various sources to create the gridded data. In brief, GPW was created using the following steps:

* Population data were estimated for the product reference years, 1990 and 1995, either by the data source or by interpolating or extrapolating the given estimates for other years.
* Additional population estimates were created by adjusting the source population data to match UN national population estimates for the reference years.
* Borders and coastlines of the spatial data were matched to the Digital Chart of the World where appropriate and lakes from the Digital Chart of the World were added.
* The resulting data were then transformed into grids of UN-adjusted and unadjusted population counts for the reference years.
* Grids containing the area of administrative boundary data in each cell (net of lakes) were created and used with the count grids to produce population densities.

As with any global data set based on multiple data sources, the spatial and attribute precision of GPW is variable. The level of detail and accuracy, both in time and space, vary among the countries for which data were obtained.

This dataset is the total global population estimation from the World Bank organization.

Sources: ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision. ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Report ( 5 ) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database ( 6 ) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programmer

Columns: year: The year of the observation population: Total global population estimation in billions

This is a hybrid gridded dataset of demographic data for the world, given as 5-year population bands at a 0.5 degree grid resolution.

This dataset combines the NASA SEDAC Gridded Population of the World version 4 (GPWv4) with the ISIMIP Histsoc gridded population data and the United Nations World Population Program (WPP) demographic modelling data.

Demographic fractions are given for the time period covered by the UN WPP model (1950-2050) while demographic totals are given for the time period covered by the combination of GPWv4 and Histsoc (1950-2020)

Method - demographic fractions

Demographic breakdown of country population by grid cell is calculated by combining the GPWv4 demographic data given for 2010 with the yearly country breakdowns from the UN WPP. This combines the spatial distribution of demographics from GPWv4 with the temporal trends from the UN WPP. This makes it possible to calculate exposure trends from 1980 to the present day.

To combine the UN WPP demographics with the GPWv4 demographics, we calculate for each country the proportional change in fraction of demographic in each age band relative to 2010 as:

(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}} = f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}/f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}})

Where:

• (\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}) is the ratio of change in demographic for a given age and and country from the UN WPP dataset.

• (f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country, and year.

• (f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country for the year 2020.

The gridded demographic fraction is then calculated relative to the 2010 demographic data given by GPWv4.

For each subset of cells corresponding to a given country c, the fraction of population in a given age band is calculated as:

(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}} = \delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}*f_{2010,c,\text{age}}^{\text{gpw}})

Where:

• (f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for given year, for the grid cell c.

• (f_{2010,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for 2010, for the grid cell c.

The matching between grid cells and country codes is performed using the GPWv4 gridded country code lookup data and country name lookup table. The final dataset is assembled by combining the cells from all countries into a single gridded time series. This time series covers the whole period from 1950-2050, corresponding to the data available in the UN WPP model.

Method - demographic totals

Total population data from 1950 to 1999 is drawn from ISIMIP Histsoc, while data from 2000-2020 is drawn from GPWv4. These two gridded time series are simply joined at the cut-over date to give a single dataset covering 1950-2020.

The total population per age band per cell is calculated by multiplying the population fractions by the population totals per grid cell.

Note that as the total population data only covers until 2020, the time span covered by the demographic population totals data is 1950-2020 (not 1950-2050).

Disclaimer

This dataset is a hybrid of different datasets with independent methodologies. No guarantees are made about the spatial or temporal consistency across dataset boundaries. The dataset may contain outlier points (e.g single cells with demographic fractions >1). This dataset is produced on a 'best effort' basis and has been found to be broadly consistent with other approaches, but may contain inconsistencies which not been identified.

This dataset contains estimates of the number of persons per square kilometer consistent with national censuses and population registers. There is one image for each modeled year. General Documentation The Gridded Population of World Version 4 (GPWv4), Revision 11 models the distribution of global human population for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 on 30 arc-second (approximately 1 km) grid cells. Population is distributed to cells using proportional allocation of population from census and administrative units. Population input data are collected at the most detailed spatial resolution available from the results of the 2010 round of censuses, which occurred between 2005 and 2014. The input data are extrapolated to produce population estimates for each modeled year.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Count, Revision 11 consists of estimates of human population (number of persons per pixel), consistent with national censuses and population registers, for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing approximately 13.5 million national and sub-national administrative units, was used to assign population counts to 30 arc-second grid cells. The data files were produced as global rasters at 30 arc-second (~1 km at the equator) resolution. To enable faster global processing, and in support of research communities, the 30 arc-second data were aggregated to 2.5 arc-minute, 15 arc-minute, 30 arc-minute and 1 degree resolutions. To provide estimates of population count for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, consistent with national censuses and population registers, as raster data to facilitate data integration.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Basic Demographic Characteristics, Revision 11 consists of estimates of human population by age and sex as counts (number of persons per pixel) and densities (number of persons per square kilometer), consistent with national censuses and population registers, for the year 2010. To estimate the male and female populations by age in 2010, the proportions of males and females in each 5-year age group from ages 0-4 to ages 85+ for the given census year were calculated. These proportions were then applied to the 2010 estimates of the total population to obtain 2010 estimates of male and female populations by age. In some cases, the spatial resolution of the age and sex proportions was coarser than the resolution of the total population estimates to which they were applied. The population density rasters were created by dividing the population count rasters by the land area raster. The data files were produced as global rasters at 30 arc-second (~1 km at the equator) resolution. To enable faster global processing, and in support of research commUnities, the 30 arc-second data were aggregated to 2.5 arc-minute, 15 arc-minute, 30 arc-minute and 1 degree resolutions.

Spatially explicit population grid can play an important role in climate change, resource management, sustainable development and other fields. Several gridded datasets already exist, but global data, especially high-resolution data on future populations are largely lacking. Based on the WorldPop dataset, we present a global gridded population dataset covering 248 countries or areas at 30 arc-seconds (approximately 1 km) spatial resolution with 5-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 by implementing Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Our dataset is quantitatively consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ (SSPs) national population. The spatially explicit population grid we predicted in this research is validated by comparing it with the WorldPop dataset both at the sub-national level and grid level. 3569 provinces (almost all provinces on the globe) and more than 480 thousand grids are taken into verification, and the results show that our dataset can serve as an input for predictive research in various fields.

Context

The United States Census Bureau’s international dataset provides estimates of country populations since 1950 and projections through 2050. Specifically, the dataset includes midyear population figures broken down by age and gender assignment at birth. Additionally, time-series data is provided for attributes including fertility rates, birth rates, death rates, and migration rates.

Querying BigQuery tables

You can use the BigQuery Python client library to query tables in this dataset in Kernels. Note that methods available in Kernels are limited to querying data. Tables are at bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.

Sample Query 1

What countries have the longest life expectancy? In this query, 2016 census information is retrieved by joining the mortality_life_expectancy and country_names_area tables for countries larger than 25,000 km2. Without the size constraint, Monaco is the top result with an average life expectancy of over 89 years!

standardSQL

SELECT age.country_name, age.life_expectancy, size.country_area FROM ( SELECT country_name, life_expectancy FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.mortality_life_expectancy WHERE year = 2016) age INNER JOIN ( SELECT country_name, country_area FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.country_names_area where country_area > 25000) size ON age.country_name = size.country_name ORDER BY 2 DESC /* Limit removed for Data Studio Visualization */ LIMIT 10

Sample Query 2

Which countries have the largest proportion of their population under 25? Over 40% of the world’s population is under 25 and greater than 50% of the world’s population is under 30! This query retrieves the countries with the largest proportion of young people by joining the age-specific population table with the midyear (total) population table.

standardSQL

SELECT age.country_name, SUM(age.population) AS under_25, pop.midyear_population AS total, ROUND((SUM(age.population) / pop.midyear_population) * 100,2) AS pct_under_25 FROM ( SELECT country_name, population, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.midyear_population_agespecific WHERE year =2017 AND age < 25) age INNER JOIN ( SELECT midyear_population, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.midyear_population WHERE year = 2017) pop ON age.country_code = pop.country_code GROUP BY 1, 3 ORDER BY 4 DESC /* Remove limit for visualization*/ LIMIT 10

Sample Query 3

The International Census dataset contains growth information in the form of birth rates, death rates, and migration rates. Net migration is the net number of migrants per 1,000 population, an important component of total population and one that often drives the work of the United Nations Refugee Agency. This query joins the growth rate table with the area table to retrieve 2017 data for countries greater than 500 km2.

SELECT growth.country_name, growth.net_migration, CAST(area.country_area AS INT64) AS country_area FROM ( SELECT country_name, net_migration, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.birth_death_growth_rates WHERE year = 2017) growth INNER JOIN ( SELECT country_area, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.country_names_area

Update frequency

Historic (none)

Dataset source

United States Census Bureau

Terms of use: This dataset is publicly available for anyone to use under the following terms provided by the Dataset Source - http://www.data.gov/privacy-policy#data_policy - and is provided "AS IS" without any warranty, express or implied, from Google. Google disclaims all liability for any damages, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of the dataset.

See the GCP Marketplace listing for more details and sample queries: https://console.cloud.google.com/marketplace/details/united-states-census-bureau/international-census-data

The Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Population Count Grid estimates human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 30 arc-second (1 km) grid cells and associated data sets dated circa 2000. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing more than 1,000,000 national and sub-national geographic Units, is used to assign population values (counts, in persons) to grid cells. This data set is produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), The World Bank, and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT).

Context

In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living, and was estimated to have reached 7,800,000,000 people as of March 2020. It took over 2 million years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion, and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion. The world population has experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was near 370 million. The highest global population growth rates, with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975 – peaking to 2.1% between 1965 and 1970.[7] The growth rate declined to 1.2% between 2010 and 2015 and is projected to decline further in the course of the 21st century. However, the global population is still increasing[8] and is projected to reach about 10 billion in 2050 and more than 11 billion in 2100.

Content

Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. Annual population growth rate. Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.

Statistical Concept and Methodology

Total population growth rates are calculated on the assumption that rate of growth is constant between two points in time. The growth rate is computed using the exponential growth formula: r = ln(pn/p0)/n, where r is the exponential rate of growth, ln() is the natural logarithm, pn is the end period population, p0 is the beginning period population, and n is the number of years in between. Note that this is not the geometric growth rate used to compute compound growth over discrete periods. For information on total population from which the growth rates are calculated, see total population (SP.POP.TOTL).

Acknowledgements

Derived from total population. Population source: ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision, ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot ( various years ), ( 5 ) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and ( 6 ) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11 consists of estimates of human population density (number of persons per square kilometer) based on counts consistent with national censuses and population registers, for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020.�A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing approximately 13.5 million national and sub-national administrative Units, was used to assign population counts to 30 arc-second grid cells. The population density rasters were created by dividing the population count raster for a given target year by the land area raster. The data files were produced as global rasters at 30 arc-second (~1 km at the equator) resolution. To enable faster global processing, and in support of research commUnities, the 30 arc-second count data were aggregated to 2.5 arc-minute, 15 arc-minute, 30 arc-minute and 1 degree resolutions to produce density rasters at these resolutions.

"Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.This dataset includes demographic data of 22 countries from 1960 to 2018, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Maldives, etc. Data fields include: country, year, population ratio, male ratio, female ratio, population density (km). Source: ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision. ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot ( various years ), ( 5 ) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and ( 6 ) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme. Periodicity: Annual Statistical Concept and Methodology: Population estimates are usually based on national population censuses. Estimates for the years before and after the census are interpolations or extrapolations based on demographic models. Errors and undercounting occur even in high-income countries. In developing countries errors may be substantial because of limits in the transport, communications, and other resources required to conduct and analyze a full census. The quality and reliability of official demographic data are also affected by public trust in the government, government commitment to full and accurate enumeration, confidentiality and protection against misuse of census data, and census agencies' independence from political influence. Moreover, comparability of population indicators is limited by differences in the concepts, definitions, collection procedures, and estimation methods used by national statistical agencies and other organizations that collect the data. The currentness of a census and the availability of complementary data from surveys or registration systems are objective ways to judge demographic data quality. Some European countries' registration systems offer complete information on population in the absence of a census. The United Nations Statistics Division monitors the completeness of vital registration systems. Some developing countries have made progress over the last 60 years, but others still have deficiencies in civil registration systems. International migration is the only other factor besides birth and death rates that directly determines a country's population growth. Estimating migration is difficult. At any time many people are located outside their home country as tourists, workers, or refugees or for other reasons. Standards for the duration and purpose of international moves that qualify as migration vary, and estimates require information on flows into and out of countries that is difficult to collect. Population projections, starting from a base year are projected forward using assumptions of mortality, fertility, and migration by age and sex through 2050, based on the UN Population Division's World Population Prospects database medium variant."

Using an innovative approach with Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing, ORNL’s LandScan is the community standard for global population distribution. At 30 arc-second (approximately 1 km) resolution, LandScan is the finest resolution global population distribution data available and represents an “ambient population” (average over 24 hours). The LandScan algorithm, an R&D 100 Award Winner, uses spatial data and imagery analysis technologies and a multi-variable dasymetric modeling approach to disaggregate census counts within an administrative boundary. LandScan population data are spatially explicit - unlike tabular Census data. Since no single population distribution model can account for the differences in spatial data availability, quality, scale, and accuracy as well as the differences in cultural settlement practices, LandScan population distribution models are tailored to match the data conditions and geographical nature of each individual country and region.

Data Usage Notice

This version is not recommended for download. Please check the newest version.

We would like to inform you that the updated GlobPOP dataset (2021-2022) have been available in version 2.0. The GlobPOP dataset (2021-2022) in the current version is not recommended for your work. The GlobPOP dataset (1990-2020) in the current version is the same as version 1.0.

Thank you for your continued support of the GlobPOP.

If you encounter any issues, please contact us via email at lulingliu@mail.bnu.edu.cn.

Introduction

Continuously monitoring global population spatial dynamics is essential for implementing effective policies related to sustainable development, such as epidemiology, urban planning, and global inequality.

Here, we present GlobPOP, a new continuous global gridded population product with a high-precision spatial resolution of 30 arcseconds from 1990 to 2020. Our data-fusion framework is based on cluster analysis and statistical learning approaches, which intends to fuse the existing five products(Global Human Settlements Layer Population (GHS-POP), Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Gridded Population of the World Version 4 (GPWv4), LandScan Population datasets and WorldPop datasets to a new continuous global gridded population (GlobPOP). The spatial validation results demonstrate that the GlobPOP dataset is highly accurate. To validate the temporal accuracy of GlobPOP at the country level, we have developed an interactive web application, accessible at https://globpop.shinyapps.io/GlobPOP/, where data users can explore the country-level population time-series curves of interest and compare them with census data.

With the availability of GlobPOP dataset in both population count and population density formats, researchers and policymakers can leverage our dataset to conduct time-series analysis of population and explore the spatial patterns of population development at various scales, ranging from national to city level.

Data description

The product is produced in 30 arc-seconds resolution(approximately 1km in equator) and is made available in GeoTIFF format. There are two population formats, one is the 'Count'(Population count per grid) and another is the 'Density'(Population count per square kilometer each grid)

Each GeoTIFF filename has 5 fields that are separated by an underscore "_". A filename extension follows these fields. The fields are described below with the example filename:

GlobPOP_Count_30arc_1990_I32

Field 1: GlobPOP(Global gridded population)
Field 2: Pixel unit is population "Count" or population "Density"
Field 3: Spatial resolution is 30 arc seconds
Field 4: Year "1990"
Field 5: Data type is I32(Int 32) or F32(Float32)

More information

Please refer to the paper for detailed information:

Liu, L., Cao, X., Li, S. et al. A 31-year (1990–2020) global gridded population dataset generated by cluster analysis and statistical learning. Sci Data 11, 124 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-02913-0.

The fully reproducible codes are publicly available at GitHub: https://github.com/lulingliu/GlobPOP.

The Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Population Count Grid estimates human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 30 arc-second (1 km) grid cells and associated data sets dated circa 2000. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing more than 1,000,000 national and sub-national geographic Units, is used to assign population values (counts, in persons) to grid cells. This data set is produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), The World Bank, and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT).

Population figures for countries, regions (e.g. Asia) and the world.

Data comesoriginally from World Bank and has been converted into standard CSV.

Data

The data is sourced from this World Bank dataset which in turn lists as sources: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects, (2) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (3) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (4) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (5) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme, and (6) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database.

License

This Data Package is licensed by its maintainers under the Public Domain Dedication and License (PDDL).