The world population surpassed eight billion people in 2022, having doubled from its figure less than 50 years previously. Looking forward, it is projected that the world population will reach nine billion in 2038, and 10 billion in 2060, but it will peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before it then goes into decline. Regional variations The global population has seen rapid growth since the early 1800s, due to advances in areas such as food production, healthcare, water safety, education, and infrastructure, however, these changes did not occur at a uniform time or pace across the world. Broadly speaking, the first regions to undergo their demographic transitions were Europe, North America, and Oceania, followed by Latin America and Asia (although Asia's development saw the greatest variation due to its size), while Africa was the last continent to undergo this transformation. Because of these differences, many so-called "advanced" countries are now experiencing population decline, particularly in Europe and East Asia, while the fastest population growth rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, the roughly two billion difference in population between now and the 2080s' peak will be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, which will rise from 1.2 billion to 3.2 billion in this time (although populations in other continents will also fluctuate). Changing projections The United Nations releases their World Population Prospects report every 1-2 years, and this is widely considered the foremost demographic dataset in the world. However, recent years have seen a notable decline in projections when the global population will peak, and at what number. Previous reports in the 2010s had suggested a peak of over 11 billion people, and that population growth would continue into the 2100s, however a sooner and shorter peak is now projected. Reasons for this include a more rapid population decline in East Asia and Europe, particularly China, as well as a prolonged development arc in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This is a hybrid gridded dataset of demographic data for the world, given as 5-year population bands at a 0.5 degree grid resolution.

This dataset combines the NASA SEDAC Gridded Population of the World version 4 (GPWv4) with the ISIMIP Histsoc gridded population data and the United Nations World Population Program (WPP) demographic modelling data.

Demographic fractions are given for the time period covered by the UN WPP model (1950-2050) while demographic totals are given for the time period covered by the combination of GPWv4 and Histsoc (1950-2020)

Method - demographic fractions

Demographic breakdown of country population by grid cell is calculated by combining the GPWv4 demographic data given for 2010 with the yearly country breakdowns from the UN WPP. This combines the spatial distribution of demographics from GPWv4 with the temporal trends from the UN WPP. This makes it possible to calculate exposure trends from 1980 to the present day.

To combine the UN WPP demographics with the GPWv4 demographics, we calculate for each country the proportional change in fraction of demographic in each age band relative to 2010 as:

\(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}} = f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}/f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\)

Where:

- \(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the ratio of change in demographic for a given age and and country from the UN WPP dataset.

- \(f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country, and year.

- \(f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country for the year 2020.

The gridded demographic fraction is then calculated relative to the 2010 demographic data given by GPWv4.

For each subset of cells corresponding to a given country c, the fraction of population in a given age band is calculated as:

\(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}} = \delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}*f_{2010,c,\text{age}}^{\text{gpw}}\)

Where:

- \(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for given year, for the grid cell c.

- \(f_{2010,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for 2010, for the grid cell c.

The matching between grid cells and country codes is performed using the GPWv4 gridded country code lookup data and country name lookup table. The final dataset is assembled by combining the cells from all countries into a single gridded time series. This time series covers the whole period from 1950-2050, corresponding to the data available in the UN WPP model.

Method - demographic totals

Total population data from 1950 to 1999 is drawn from ISIMIP Histsoc, while data from 2000-2020 is drawn from GPWv4. These two gridded time series are simply joined at the cut-over date to give a single dataset covering 1950-2020.

The total population per age band per cell is calculated by multiplying the population fractions by the population totals per grid cell.

Note that as the total population data only covers until 2020, the time span covered by the demographic population totals data is 1950-2020 (not 1950-2050).

Disclaimer

This dataset is a hybrid of different datasets with independent methodologies. No guarantees are made about the spatial or temporal consistency across dataset boundaries. The dataset may contain outlier points (e.g single cells with demographic fractions >1). This dataset is produced on a 'best effort' basis and has been found to be broadly consistent with other approaches, but may contain inconsistencies which not been identified.

Context

The United States Census Bureau’s international dataset provides estimates of country populations since 1950 and projections through 2050. Specifically, the dataset includes midyear population figures broken down by age and gender assignment at birth. Additionally, time-series data is provided for attributes including fertility rates, birth rates, death rates, and migration rates.

Querying BigQuery tables

You can use the BigQuery Python client library to query tables in this dataset in Kernels. Note that methods available in Kernels are limited to querying data. Tables are at bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.

Sample Query 1

What countries have the longest life expectancy? In this query, 2016 census information is retrieved by joining the mortality_life_expectancy and country_names_area tables for countries larger than 25,000 km2. Without the size constraint, Monaco is the top result with an average life expectancy of over 89 years!

standardSQL

SELECT age.country_name, age.life_expectancy, size.country_area FROM ( SELECT country_name, life_expectancy FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.mortality_life_expectancy WHERE year = 2016) age INNER JOIN ( SELECT country_name, country_area FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.country_names_area where country_area > 25000) size ON age.country_name = size.country_name ORDER BY 2 DESC /* Limit removed for Data Studio Visualization */ LIMIT 10

Sample Query 2

Which countries have the largest proportion of their population under 25? Over 40% of the world’s population is under 25 and greater than 50% of the world’s population is under 30! This query retrieves the countries with the largest proportion of young people by joining the age-specific population table with the midyear (total) population table.

standardSQL

SELECT age.country_name, SUM(age.population) AS under_25, pop.midyear_population AS total, ROUND((SUM(age.population) / pop.midyear_population) * 100,2) AS pct_under_25 FROM ( SELECT country_name, population, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.midyear_population_agespecific WHERE year =2017 AND age < 25) age INNER JOIN ( SELECT midyear_population, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.midyear_population WHERE year = 2017) pop ON age.country_code = pop.country_code GROUP BY 1, 3 ORDER BY 4 DESC /* Remove limit for visualization*/ LIMIT 10

Sample Query 3

The International Census dataset contains growth information in the form of birth rates, death rates, and migration rates. Net migration is the net number of migrants per 1,000 population, an important component of total population and one that often drives the work of the United Nations Refugee Agency. This query joins the growth rate table with the area table to retrieve 2017 data for countries greater than 500 km2.

SELECT growth.country_name, growth.net_migration, CAST(area.country_area AS INT64) AS country_area FROM ( SELECT country_name, net_migration, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.birth_death_growth_rates WHERE year = 2017) growth INNER JOIN ( SELECT country_area, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.country_names_area

Update frequency

Historic (none)

Dataset source

United States Census Bureau

Terms of use: This dataset is publicly available for anyone to use under the following terms provided by the Dataset Source - http://www.data.gov/privacy-policy#data_policy - and is provided "AS IS" without any warranty, express or implied, from Google. Google disclaims all liability for any damages, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of the dataset.

See the GCP Marketplace listing for more details and sample queries: https://console.cloud.google.com/marketplace/details/united-states-census-bureau/international-census-data

Historical dataset showing total population for the world by year from 1950 to 2025.

Midyear population estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world with a population of 5,000 or more // Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center// Note: Total population available from 1950 to 2100 for 227 countries and areas. Other demographic variables available from base year to 2100. Base year varies by country and therefore data are not available for all years for all countries. For the United States, total population available from 1950-2060, and other demographic variables available from 1980-2060. See methodology at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/idb.html

Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.

"Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.This dataset includes demographic data of 22 countries from 1960 to 2018, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Maldives, etc. Data fields include: country, year, population ratio, male ratio, female ratio, population density (km). Source: ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision. ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot ( various years ), ( 5 ) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and ( 6 ) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme. Periodicity: Annual Statistical Concept and Methodology: Population estimates are usually based on national population censuses. Estimates for the years before and after the census are interpolations or extrapolations based on demographic models. Errors and undercounting occur even in high-income countries. In developing countries errors may be substantial because of limits in the transport, communications, and other resources required to conduct and analyze a full census. The quality and reliability of official demographic data are also affected by public trust in the government, government commitment to full and accurate enumeration, confidentiality and protection against misuse of census data, and census agencies' independence from political influence. Moreover, comparability of population indicators is limited by differences in the concepts, definitions, collection procedures, and estimation methods used by national statistical agencies and other organizations that collect the data. The currentness of a census and the availability of complementary data from surveys or registration systems are objective ways to judge demographic data quality. Some European countries' registration systems offer complete information on population in the absence of a census. The United Nations Statistics Division monitors the completeness of vital registration systems. Some developing countries have made progress over the last 60 years, but others still have deficiencies in civil registration systems. International migration is the only other factor besides birth and death rates that directly determines a country's population growth. Estimating migration is difficult. At any time many people are located outside their home country as tourists, workers, or refugees or for other reasons. Standards for the duration and purpose of international moves that qualify as migration vary, and estimates require information on flows into and out of countries that is difficult to collect. Population projections, starting from a base year are projected forward using assumptions of mortality, fertility, and migration by age and sex through 2050, based on the UN Population Division's World Population Prospects database medium variant."

Historical dataset showing total population for China by year from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset showing total population for Japan by year from 1950 to 2025.

Population of Urban Agglomerations with 300,000 Inhabitants or more in 2014, by city, 1950-2030 (thousands). Data for 1,692 cities contained in the Excel file. Note: Each country has its own definition of what is 'urban' and therefore use exercise caution when comparing cities in different countries. Data available from the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. Further detail of population estimates, land area, and population density for world urban areas with over 500,000 people (924 areas) is available with Demographia's World Urban Areas report (2014). Much of this data is based on the UN urban agglomerations, though a range of other sources are also used.

Historical dataset showing total population for the United States by year from 1950 to 2025.

A computerized data set of demographic, economic and social data for 227 countries of the world. Information presented includes population, health, nutrition, mortality, fertility, family planning and contraceptive use, literacy, housing, and economic activity data. Tabular data are broken down by such variables as age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Data are organized as a series of statistical tables identified by country and table number. Each record consists of the data values associated with a single row of a given table. There are 105 tables with data for 208 countries. The second file is a note file, containing text of notes associated with various tables. These notes provide information such as definitions of categories (i.e. urban/rural) and how various values were calculated. The IDB was created in the U.S. Census Bureau''s International Programs Center (IPC) to help IPC staff meet the needs of organizations that sponsor IPC research. The IDB provides quick access to specialized information, with emphasis on demographic measures, for individual countries or groups of countries. The IDB combines data from country sources (typically censuses and surveys) with IPC estimates and projections to provide information dating back as far as 1950 and as far ahead as 2050. Because the IDB is maintained as a research tool for IPC sponsor requirements, the amount of information available may vary by country. As funding and research activity permit, the IPC updates and expands the data base content. Types of data include: * Population by age and sex * Vital rates, infant mortality, and life tables * Fertility and child survivorship * Migration * Marital status * Family planning Data characteristics: * Temporal: Selected years, 1950present, projected demographic data to 2050. * Spatial: 227 countries and areas. * Resolution: National population, selected data by urban/rural * residence, selected data by age and sex. Sources of data include: * U.S. Census Bureau * International projects (e.g., the Demographic and Health Survey) * United Nations agencies Links: * ICPSR: http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/studies/08490

Historical dataset showing total population for Thailand by year from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset showing total population for Bangladesh by year from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset showing total population for North America by year from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset of population level and growth rate for the Lexington-Fayette metro area from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset showing total population for Belgium by year from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset showing total population for France by year from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset showing total population for Mexico by year from 1950 to 2025.

Historical dataset showing total population for Germany by year from 1950 to 2025.