In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.84% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.02 points and is 0.73 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.71% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points, though it remains 0.41 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-24 about maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-29 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.39% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.08 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points and is 0.39 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield eased to 14.02% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.51 points and is 2.19 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.53% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.09 points, though it remains 0.69 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Rates have been trending downward in Canada for the last five years. The ebbs and flows are caused by changes in Canada’s bond yields (driven by Canadians economic developments and international rate movements, particularly U.S. rate fluctuations) and the overnight rate (which is set by the Bank of Canada). As of August 2022, there has been a 225 bps increase in the prime rate, since beginning of year 2022, from 2.45% to 4.70% as of Aug 24th 2022. The following are the historical conventional mortgage rates offered by the 6 major chartered banks in Canada in the past 20 years.

The yield on 5 Year TIPS Yield eased to 1.37% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.11 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.13 points and is 0.36 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 5 Year TIPS Yield.

The yield on South Africa 10Y Bond Yield eased to 9.62% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.21 points, though it remains 0.37 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. South Africa 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Zambia Government Bond 10y eased to 19.53% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.55 points, though it remains 5.99 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Zambia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.