The current US Census Bureau world population estimate in June 2019 shows that the current global population is 7,577,130,400 people on earth, which far exceeds the world population of 7.2 billion from 2015. Our own estimate based on UN data shows the world's population surpassing 7.7 billion.

China is the most populous country in the world with a population exceeding 1.4 billion. It is one of just two countries with a population of more than 1 billion, with India being the second. As of 2018, India has a population of over 1.355 billion people, and its population growth is expected to continue through at least 2050. By the year 2030, the country of India is expected to become the most populous country in the world. This is because India’s population will grow, while China is projected to see a loss in population.

The next 11 countries that are the most populous in the world each have populations exceeding 100 million. These include the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, Japan, Ethiopia, and the Philippines. Of these nations, all are expected to continue to grow except Russia and Japan, which will see their populations drop by 2030 before falling again significantly by 2050.

Many other nations have populations of at least one million, while there are also countries that have just thousands. The smallest population in the world can be found in Vatican City, where only 801 people reside.

In 2018, the world’s population growth rate was 1.12%. Every five years since the 1970s, the population growth rate has continued to fall. The world’s population is expected to continue to grow larger but at a much slower pace. By 2030, the population will exceed 8 billion. In 2040, this number will grow to more than 9 billion. In 2055, the number will rise to over 10 billion, and another billion people won’t be added until near the end of the century. The current annual population growth estimates from the United Nations are in the millions - estimating that over 80 million new lives are added each year.

This population growth will be significantly impacted by nine specific countries which are situated to contribute to the population growth more quickly than other nations. These nations include the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America. Particularly of interest, India is on track to overtake China's position as the most populous country by the year 2030. Additionally, multiple nations within Africa are expected to double their populations before fertility rates begin to slow entirely.

Global life expectancy has also improved in recent years, increasing the overall population life expectancy at birth to just over 70 years of age. The projected global life expectancy is only expected to continue to improve - reaching nearly 77 years of age by the year 2050. Significant factors impacting the data on life expectancy include the projections of the ability to reduce AIDS/HIV impact, as well as reducing the rates of infectious and non-communicable diseases.

Population aging has a massive impact on the ability of the population to maintain what is called a support ratio. One key finding from 2017 is that the majority of the world is going to face considerable growth in the 60 plus age bracket. This will put enormous strain on the younger age groups as the elderly population is becoming so vast without the number of births to maintain a healthy support ratio.

Although the number given above seems very precise, it is important to remember that it is just an estimate. It simply isn't possible to be sure exactly how many people there are on the earth at any one time, and there are conflicting estimates of the global population in 2016.

Some, including the UN, believe that a population of 7 billion was reached in October 2011. Others, including the US Census Bureau and World Bank, believe that the total population of the world reached 7 billion in 2012, around March or April.

The world population surpassed eight billion people in 2022, having doubled from its figure less than 50 years previously. Looking forward, it is projected that the world population will reach nine billion in 2038, and 10 billion in 2060, but it will peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before it then goes into decline. Regional variations The global population has seen rapid growth since the early 1800s, due to advances in areas such as food production, healthcare, water safety, education, and infrastructure, however, these changes did not occur at a uniform time or pace across the world. Broadly speaking, the first regions to undergo their demographic transitions were Europe, North America, and Oceania, followed by Latin America and Asia (although Asia's development saw the greatest variation due to its size), while Africa was the last continent to undergo this transformation. Because of these differences, many so-called "advanced" countries are now experiencing population decline, particularly in Europe and East Asia, while the fastest population growth rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, the roughly two billion difference in population between now and the 2080s' peak will be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, which will rise from 1.2 billion to 3.2 billion in this time (although populations in other continents will also fluctuate). Changing projections The United Nations releases their World Population Prospects report every 1-2 years, and this is widely considered the foremost demographic dataset in the world. However, recent years have seen a notable decline in projections when the global population will peak, and at what number. Previous reports in the 2010s had suggested a peak of over 11 billion people, and that population growth would continue into the 2100s, however a sooner and shorter peak is now projected. Reasons for this include a more rapid population decline in East Asia and Europe, particularly China, as well as a prolonged development arc in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Context

In demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living, and was estimated to have reached 7,800,000,000 people as of March 2020. It took over 2 million years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion, and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion. The world population has experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was near 370 million. The highest global population growth rates, with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975 – peaking to 2.1% between 1965 and 1970.[7] The growth rate declined to 1.2% between 2010 and 2015 and is projected to decline further in the course of the 21st century. However, the global population is still increasing[8] and is projected to reach about 10 billion in 2050 and more than 11 billion in 2100.

Content

Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. Annual population growth rate. Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.

Statistical Concept and Methodology

Total population growth rates are calculated on the assumption that rate of growth is constant between two points in time. The growth rate is computed using the exponential growth formula: r = ln(pn/p0)/n, where r is the exponential rate of growth, ln() is the natural logarithm, pn is the end period population, p0 is the beginning period population, and n is the number of years in between. Note that this is not the geometric growth rate used to compute compound growth over discrete periods. For information on total population from which the growth rates are calculated, see total population (SP.POP.TOTL).

Acknowledgements

Derived from total population. Population source: ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision, ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot ( various years ), ( 5 ) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and ( 6 ) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.

The USGS’s FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for the Prairie Potholes region of the northern Great Plains of the United States. The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (29 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial extent (covering much of the Great Plains), 4) use of real land ownership boundaries to ensure realistic representation of landscape patterns, and 5) representation of both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation change. A variety of scenarios were modeled from 2014 to 2100, with decadal timesteps (i.e., 2014, 2020, 2030, etc.). Modeled land use and natural vegetation classes were responsive to projected future changes in environmental conditions, including changes in groundwater and water access. Eleven primary land-use scenarios were modeled, from four different scenario families. The land-use scenarios focused on socioeconomic impacts on anthropogenic land use (demographics, energy use, agricultural economics, and other socioeconomic considerations). The following provides a brief summary of the 11 major land-use scenarios. 1) Business-as-usual - Based on an extrapolation of recent land-cover trends as derived from remote-sensing data. Overall trends were provided by 2001 to 2011 change in the National Land Cover Database, while change in crop types were extrapolated from 2008 to 2014 change in the Cropland Data Layer. Overall the scenario is marked by expansion of high-value traditional crops (corn, soybeans, cotton), with a concurrent decline in dryland wheat and some other lower-value crops. 2) Billion Ton Update scenario ($40 farmgate price) - This scenario is based on US Department of Energy biofuel scenarios from the Billion Ton Update (BTU). The $40 scenario represents likely agricultural conditions under an assumed farmgate price of $40 per dry ton of biomass (for the production of biofuel). This is the least aggressive BTU scenario for placing "perennial grass" (for biofuel feedstock) on the landscape. 3) Billion Ton Update scenario ($60 farmgate price) - This scenario is based on US Department of Energy biofuel scenarios from the Billion Ton Update. The $60 scenario represents likely agricultural conditions under an assumed farmgate price of $60 per dry ton of biomass (for the production of biofuel). At the higher farmgate price, the perennial grass class expands dramatically. 4) Billion Ton Update scenario ($80 farmgate price) - This scenario is based on US Department of Energy biofuel scenarios from the Billion Ton Update. The $80 scenario represents likely agricultural conditions under an assumed farmgate price of $80 per dry ton of biomass (for the production of biofuel). With the high farmgate price, this scenario shows the highest expansion of perennial grass among the 11 modeled scenarios. 5) GCAM Reference scenario - Based on global-scale scenarios from the GCAM model, the "reference" scenario provides a likely landscape under a world without specific carbon or climate mitigation efforts. As such, it's another form of a "business-as-usual" scenario. 6) GCAM 4.5 scenario - Based on global-scale scenarios from the GCAM model, the GCAM 4.5 model represents a mid-level mitigation scenario, where carbon payments and other mitigation efforts result in a net radiative forcing of ~4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Agriculture becomes even more concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwestern US, resulting in substantial increases in cropland (including perennial grass used as feedstock for cellulosic biofuel production). 7) GCAM 2.6 scenario - Based on global-scale scenarios from the GCAM model, the GCAM 2.6 model represents a very aggressive mitigation scenario, where carbon payments and other mitigation efforts result in a net radiative forcing of only ~2.6 W/m2 by 2100. Agriculture becomes even more concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwestern US, resulting in substantial increases in cropland (including perennial grass used as feedstock for cellulosic biofuel production). 8) SRES A1B scenario - A scenario consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC's) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B storyline. In the A1B scenario, economic activity is prioritized over environmental conservation. Agriculture expands substantially, including use of perennial grasses for biofuel production. 9) SRES A2 scenario - A scenario consistent with the IPCC's SRES A2 storyline. In the A2 scenario, global population levels reach 15 billion by 2100. Economic activity is prioritized over environmental conservation. This scenario has the highest overall expansion of traditional cropland, given the very high demand for foodstuffs and other agricultural commodities. 10) SRES B1 scenario - A scenario consistent with the IPCC's SRES B1 storyline. In the B1 scenario, environmental conservation is valued, as is regional cooperation. Much less agricultural expansion occurs as compared to the A1B or A2 scenarios. 11) SRES B2 scenario - A scenario consistent with the IPCC's SRES B2 storyline. In the B2 scenario, environmental conservation is highly valued. Of the eleven modeled scenarios, the B2 scenarios has the smallest overall agricultural footprint (traditional cropland, hay/pasture, perennial grasses). For each of the eleven land-use scenarios, three alternative climate / vegetation scenarios were modeled, resulting in 33 unique scenario combinations. The alternative vegetation scenarios represent the potential changes in quantity and distribution of the major vegetation classes that were modeled (grassland, shrubland, deciduous forest, mixed forest, and evergreen forest), as a response to potential future climate conditions. The three alternative vegetation scenarios correspond to climate conditions consistent with 1) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC's) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario (a scenario of high climate change), 2) the RCP 4.5 scenario (a mid-level climate change scenario), and 3) a mid-point climate that averages RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 conditions Data are provided here for each of the 33 possible scenario combinations. Each scenario file is provided as a zip file containing 1) starting 2014 land cover for the region, and 2) decadal timesteps of modeled land-cover from 2020 through 2100. The "attributes" section of the metadata provides a key for identifying file names associated with each of the 33 scenario combinations.

Mitigation strategies: Health and economic outcomes from intervention programs that reach 20%* of affected adults per million total population.