Context

Data is extracted from Bloomberg and I used it mainly for the kernel: "Is a recession coming? US Yield Curves can tell us". Yield Curves are presumed to be very good predictors of economic recessions. This analysis assesses how accurate they can actually forecast this event and when they say the next economic recession will take place.

Data Yield Curve:

• Date - daily information from 1977 to 2019
• 1yr - Yield Curve value for 1 year maturity
• 30YR - Yield Curve value for 30 years maturity
• SPREAD - is the difference between the 30yr and 1yr maturities (it is negative when the yield curve inverted)
• SP500 - stock market index that tracks the stocks of 500 large-cap U.S. companies
• GOLD - price of gold
• OIL - price of oil
• CHFUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and swiss franc
• JPYUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen

Yield-curve-inverted

• Maturities - the type of maturity (from 1 month to 30 years)
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date (showing the invertion)

Abstract Unusual interest rate behavior has become increasingly frequent in developed economies. Even though intuitively unlikely, government bond yields in negative territory are found in most European countries, and inverted yield curves for Treasury bonds in the United States occurred during some months. This paper presents the influence of conventional and non-conventional monetary policy instruments over the previously mentioned phenomena, and an interpretation based on the Liquidity Preference Theory proposed by Keynes. This interpretation explains, based on agents’ behavior, why public and private asset purchase programs, yield curve control and communication based on forward guidance used by central banks could persist and influence financial markets. This situation has enabled the occurrence of atypical phenomena regarding interest rates.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.52% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.03 points and is 0.24 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.