By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Feb 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

In September 2024, the global PMI amounted to 47.5 for new export orders and 48.8 for manufacturing. The manufacturing PMI was at its lowest point in August 2020. It decreased over the last months of 2022 after the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and rising inflation hit the world economy, and remained around 50 since.

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performances to those of a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results highlight the importance of using high-frequency values of the EPU, and not averaging them to obtain quarterly values, when forecasting recessionary regimes for the U.S. economy.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Hong Kong expanded 0.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada expanded 0.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Canada GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Italy expanded 0.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Italy GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan expanded 0.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Japan GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Austria contracted 0.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Austria GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Taiwan expanded 2.90 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - Taiwan GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Puerto Rico expanded 0.70 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - Puerto Rico GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Sri Lanka expanded 5.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sri Lanka GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.