By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Milton Friedman’s plucking model of business cycles hypothesizes that deeper recessions forecast larger booms while stronger booms do not necessarily forecast deeper recessions. This paper tests the plucking model using Maddison Project growth data for 169 countries across several centuries. We find 56.9% of the per capita GDP growth magnitude in the last year of a downturn forecasts the per capita GDP growth magnitude of the subsequent first recovery year while only 16.2% of the last boom year per capita GDP growth magnitude forecasts the per capita GDP growth magnitude of the first year in the subsequent downturn, suggesting that the plucking model holds up relatively well. Combining our finding that first post-recession boom year per capita GDP growth rate is typically is 0.7% higher than later boom years suggests that recoveries generally exhibit “reverse square root” shapes.

We estimate a DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model where rare large shocks can occur, by replacing the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student's t-distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (American Economic Review 2007; 97: 586-606) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that (i) the Student's t specification is strongly favored by the data even when we allow for low-frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks, and (ii)) the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for several shocks that drive US business cycles, implying an important role for rare large shocks. This result holds even if we exclude the Great Recession period from the sample. We also show that inference about low-frequency changes in volatility-and, in particular, inference about the magnitude of Great Moderation-is different once we allow for fat tails.

This dataset is about book subjects, has 5 rows. and is filtered where the books includes The bubble bursts : capitalism in crisis : the global recession, how it affects you and what should be done. It features 10 columns including book subject, number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date. The preview is ordered by number of books (descending).

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 6 rows and is filtered where the books is Corporate dreams : big business in American democracy from the Great Depression to the great recession. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan stagnated 0 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Japan GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the leading indicator. Estimation and model selection procedures allow us to estimate and identify time-varying non-linearity in a VAR. The structural break threshold VAR (SBTVAR) predicts better the timing of recessions than models with constant threshold or with only a break. Using real-time data, the SBTVAR with spread as leading indicator is able to anticipate correctly the timing of the 2001 recession.

We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor market matching process with a focus on the Great Recession. We conduct our analysis in the context of an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and equilibrium search unemployment that features a shock to the matching efficiency (or mismatch shock). We find that this shock is not important for unemployment fluctuations in normal times. However, it plays a somewhat larger role during the Great Recession when it contributes to raise the actual unemployment rate by around 1.3 percentage points and the natural rate by around 2 percentage points. The mismatch shock is the dominant driver of the natural rate of unemployment and explains part of the recent shift of the Beveridge curve.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Austria expanded 0.10 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Austria GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Italy expanded 0.30 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Italy GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This dataset is about book series. It has 1 row and is filtered where the books is Unlucky cohorts : estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.

Note: Updates to this data product are discontinued. Over 1 in 4 rural children are living in families that are poor, according to the official poverty measure, up from 1 in 5 in 1999, but this change was uneven across the rural landscape. Counties with high vulnerability to child poverty, those with both low young adult education levels and high proportions of children in single-parent families, were generally the most hard-hit by the recession of the past decade and experienced substantial increases in their already high child poverty rates. Along with the recession, an increase in rural children in single-parent households, continuing from the 1990s, was a major contributor to the rise in child poverty after 2000. Three factors that shape the geography of high and increasing rural child poverty are explored below: economic conditions, young adult education levels, and family structure. This collection of maps complements the July 2015 Amber Waves feature, Understanding the Geography of Growth in Rural Child Poverty.

We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically, we show that the X-11 adjustment filter both reduces the magnitude of change at turning points and reduces the depth of recessions, with specific effects depending on the length of the recession. A Monte Carlo analysis using Markov-switching models confirms these properties, with particularly undesirable effects in delaying the recognition of the end of a recession. However, seasonal adjustment can help to clarify the true regime when this is well underway. These results continue to hold when a seasonally non-stationary process with regime-dependent mean is misspecified as one with deterministic seasonal effects. The empirical findings, based on four coincident US business cycle indicators, reinforce the analytical and simulation results by showing that seasonal adjustment leads to the identification of longer and shallower recessions than obtained using unadjusted data.

ATT of suicide for BFP participation in the original cohort from 2004–2015.

Spanish Chief Executive Officer’s personality traits are measured by two psychometric tests (LOT-R and DOSPERT) in order to monitor its influence on corporate financial decisions during economic expansion and recession periods.

The research examined the data from both the Spanish firm CEOs’ personal traits and the economic financial situation of certain firms. In order to obtain these data, firstly we determined the set of necessary previous conditions required to the selected firm: the business ownership, the firm size (large) and the continuity of the CEO in the company during the two economic periods. Secondly, we define the population of companies from the database SABI which is a source of economic and financial information of Spanish and Portuguese firms. The number of firms which met the former requirements were 1,020 where we excluded the financial firms whose balance sheets had a structure different from non-financial companies. From the population, a simple random sample of 720 firms. The economic and financial data correspond to the period from 2001 to 2014. This sample period is divided into two subperiods: from 2001 to 2007, a period of economic expansion, and from 2008 to 2014 or the economic recession period.

Long Term Unemployment Rate in the United States decreased to 0.85 percent in May from 0.98 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Long Term Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 1 row and is filtered where the books is Job deprivation and job security : some evidence of the ambiguous position of wage labour in a market economy in recession. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 3 rows and is filtered where the books is Navigating policy and practice in the Great Recession. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 1 row and is filtered where the books is How to get a job in a recession. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 3 rows and is filtered where the books is A cycle of recession and recovery AD 1200-1900 : archaeological investigations at Much Park Street, Coventry 2007 to 2010. It features 10 columns including number of authors, number of books, earliest publication date, and latest publication date.