Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Jul 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Data was collected from the FRED website.

Contains economic indicators often associated with recessions along with recession status data. Data collected on smallest time unit and earliest time date available for each indicator which results in many nulls but increased flexibility for the users of this dataset.

• recession: "1" recessionary period, "0" non-recessionary period (Monthly)
• cpi: CPI (1982-1984=INDEX 100) (Monthly)
• gdp: Real GDP Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars (Quarterly)
• unemployment: Unemployment Rate (Monthly)
• m2: M2 Billions of Dollars (Monthly)
• fed_funds: Federal Funds Rate (Monthly)
• ten_two: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (Monthly)
• residential: Real Residential Property Price Rate (Quarterly)

Comprehensive description of each variable can be found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Recession Probabilities, Academic Data dataset contains the series for the following categories Recession Probabilities, Economic Policy Uncertainty

This dataset is about books. It has 1 row and is filtered where the book is Corporate dreams : big business in American democracy from the Great Depression to the great recession. It features 7 columns including author, publication date, language, and book publisher.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 3.30 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Replication data for "Effects of the Great Recession on American Attitudes Toward Trade."

MLE and GoFT for GuGRP parameters of American recessions.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data was reported at -0.105 Basis Point in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.060 Basis Point for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data is updated monthly, averaging -0.056 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.539 Basis Point in Oct 2008 and a record low of -1.026 Basis Point in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for Real gross domestic product per capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q2 2025 about per capita, real, GDP, and USA.

Eo, Yunjong, and Morley, James, (2022) “Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?.” Review of Economics and Statistics 104:2, 246–258.

Consumer Confidence in the United States decreased to 58.20 points in August from 61.70 points in July of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

Attitude of Americans to West Germany and economic questions. Topics: Assessment of personal economic situation in comparison over time; judgement on the regional, national and international economic situation; assessment of the world political situation; trust in economic development; price development; recession; development of unemployment; judgement on social security and provision for one´s old age; attitude to the FRG and Germans; judgement on the reliability of the Germans in the western alliance; attitude to the division of Germany and the Berlin problem; attitude to purchase of products from Germany, France and Japan; party preference; actual and desired number of children. Demography: age; marital status; number of children; religious denomination; religiousness; school education; vocational training; occupation; employment; income; household income; size of household; head of household; possession of durable economic goods. Interviewer rating: race of respondent; housing situation and neighborhood. Einstellung der Amerikaner zu Westdeutschland und zu wirtschaftlichen Fragen. Themen: Einschätzung der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Situation im Zeitvergleich; Beurteilung der regionalen, nationalen und internationalen ökonomischen Situation; Einschätzung der weltpolitischen Lage; Vertrauen in die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung; Preisentwicklung; Rezession; Entwicklung der Arbeitslosigkeit; Beurteilung der Sozialversicherung und Altersversorgung; Einstellung zur BRD und zu Deutschen; Beurteilung der Zuverlässigkeit der Deutschen in der westlichen Allianz; Einstellung zur Teilung Deutschlands und zum Berlin-Problem; Einstellung zum Kauf von Produkten aus Deutschland, Frankreich und Japan; Parteipräferenz; tatsächliche und gewünschte Kinderzahl. Demographie: Alter; Familienstand; Kinderzahl; Konfession; Religiosität; Schulbildung; Berufsausbildung; Beruf; Berufstätigkeit; Einkommen; Haushaltseinkommen; Haushaltsgröße; Haushaltungsvorstand; Besitz langlebiger Wirtschaftsgüter. Interviewerrating: Rasse des Befragten; Wohnsituation und Nachbarschaft. Multi-stage random sample Mehrstufige Zufallsauswahl

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performances to those of a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results highlight the importance of using high-frequency values of the EPU, and not averaging them to obtain quarterly values, when forecasting recessionary regimes for the U.S. economy.

Business Confidence in the United States decreased to 48 points in July from 49 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.