By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Jul 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

This project will assess the equality impact of the recent recession on the labour utilisation and position of women and men in the labour market, and on the employment of lone parents. These impacts will be considered against the backcloth of longer term demographic and policy developments leading up to and during the recent economic downturn. An important question to be considered is whether as a result of surplus labour, increased labour market competition, and intensified business conditions, recession acts to heighten the employment penalties experienced by women. This could occur through increased sex discrimination, or fewer efforts by employers to apply equality and diversity policy as a means of recruiting and retaining staff. To explore this question we will use recent innovations in statistical matching techniques to form comparison groups of men matched to women to explore whether women and men who are comparable in terms of their individual characteristics differ in their labour market outcomes. Secondary analysis. Analysis of trends in unemployment, economic activity and time related underemployment by NUTS 2 geographical level, comparing trends in Northern England counties against National and regional trends. The data was used to produce data tables for part of an appraisal of current modelling strategies used by local governments for labour market projections, which require re-evaluation in the context of the recent economic crisis.

Commercial paper, in the global financial market, is an unsecured promissory note with a fixed maturity of not more than 270 days.

Commercial paper is a money-market security issued (sold) by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations (for example, payroll), and is backed only by an issuing bank or company promise to pay the face amount on the maturity date specified on the note. Since it is not backed by collateral, only firms with excellent credit ratings from a recognized credit rating agency will be able to sell their commercial paper at a reasonable price. Commercial paper is usually sold at a discount from face value, and generally carries lower interest repayment rates than bonds due to the shorter maturities of commercial paper. Typically, the longer the maturity on a note, the higher the interest rate the issuing institution pays. Interest rates fluctuate with market conditions, but are typically lower than banks' rates.

Commercial paper – though a short-term obligation – is issued as part of a continuous rolling program, which is either a number of years long (as in Europe), or open-ended (as in the U.S.)

Acknowledgements

This dataset was made available by the Federal Reserve. You can find the original dataset, updated daily, here.

Inspiration

• Based solely on this dataset, when would you say the Great Recession financial crisis started? How does that compare with media reports?

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Sample data for HESS-2019-205 submission

Description: This file contains the event magnitudes and spacing for Cases 1 & 3 presented in the submitted manuscript to HESS titled "Recession analysis 42 years later - work yet to be done".

CVS File: This file is an ordered set of the normalized event magnitude [-] and the start date fo the event (Time/Timescale [-])

Matlab File: The file is presented is in a .mat file extension created in Matlab. The data is divided into 3 columns: mag, value, and start_locs. The column of "Mag" defines the event magnitudes, which are log-normally distributed with a mean 1 of a standard deviation of 1. The column of "value" defines the event duration which has a mean of 2.5 and a standard deviation of 1. The "start_locs" column as the cumulative event durations that identify the start time of each event. Below is the associated Matlab code used to create the file: %% Matlab Code %% mag= lognrnd(1,1[number_of_events,1]); %create log-normally distributed dataset of event magnitudes for a defined number of events mag(mag<0)=1; %remove any negative magnitudes value=round(lognrnd(2.5,1,[number_of_events,1])); %create log-normally distributed dataset of event durations for a defined number of events value(value<=0)=1; %remove any negative durations start_locs=[2;cumsum(value)]; %create cumulative event start time-series

The Long-Term Monitoring at the East and West Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary 2002-2006 data include biological and oceanographic measurements collected to satisfy the MMS and NOAA contracts 1435-01-02-CT-85088 and 1435-01-04-CT-33137 through the monitoring year 2006. The Flower Garden Banks are located in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and are unique within the region. The Flower Garden Banks are coral reefs with biological assemblages typical of Caribbean coral reefs, including approximately 23 Caribbean scleractinian coral species, a low abundance and diversity of sponges, and reef fishes. These data are the result of yearly monitoring events and are used for comparison purposes required to complete technical reports and presentations. Statistical analyses, photographs, and videography are not included in this submission. On the East and West Flower Garden Banks there are 100 m by 100m study sites within which monitoring is conducted every year. The data included in this submission are from these study sites and include the following: (1) random transect benthic cover data obtained using videography (2002-2006), still photographs (2002-2003) and linear point intercept observer data (2002-2003). Random transect data include the proportional cover of benthic components including coral species, sponges, algae, and other groups. (2) Sclerochronology data are taken during odd years to look at short-term (10 years) change in coral growth rates. (3) Photographs of marked Diploria strigosa colony margins are taken annually to track lateral growth or recession of colony margins over time. Data within this dataset start with comparisons between 2001 and 2002. (4) Repetitive 8m2 quadrat planimetry data follow specific coral colonies over time. Coral colonies are traced each year to measure lateral growth, loss, and/or replacement within a continuously monitored 8m2 area. Data within this dataset start with comparisons between 2001 and 2002. (5) Abiotic water quality parameters are recorded on a continual basis using YSI datasondes. Data include temperature, specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen concentration, dissolved oxygen charge, pressure, depth, pH, pHmV, par1, par2, turbidity, and salinity. Additionally, HoboTemp thermographs are used as a back-up to record temperature. On YSI datasonde changeout cruises water samples are taken at surface, mid-water and at the benthos for nutrient and chlorophyll analysis. (6) Fish population surveys are completed to monitor fish species abundance and size from year to year.

During the Great Recession, exceptionally harsh economic conditions were often countered by austerity policies that, according to many, further worsened and protracted the negative conjuncture. Both elements, the poor state of the economy and the contractionary manoeuvers, are supposed to reduce the electoral prospects for incumbents. In this article, we compare the relative explanatory powers of these two theories before and during the economic crisis. We demonstrate that in normal times citizens are fiscally responsible, whereas during the Great Recession, and under certain conditions, austerity policies systematically reduced the support for incumbents on top of the state of the economy. This happened when the burdens of the manoeuvers were shared by many, in more equal societies, when the country was constrained by external conditionalities and when readjustments were mostly based on tax increases.

This dataset is the basis of the work titled “The short-run relationship between inequality and growth: evidence from OECD regions during the Great Recession”, published in Regional Studies (DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2018.1476752). This paper provides evidence on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) regions during the decade 2003–13. It combines household survey data and macroeconomic databases, covering over 200 comparable regions in 15 OECD countries. The econometric results, based on two alternative sets of instruments, highlight a general negative association between inequalities and economic growth since the start of the economic crisis. This relationship is sensitive to the type of urban structure. Higher inequalities seem to be more detrimental for growth in regions characterized by medium to large-sized cities, while regions characterized by small cities and rural areas are less affected.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India expanded 7.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides - India GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada expanded 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Canada GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Austria expanded 0.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Austria GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.30 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.