This is a late July 2013 YouGov political tracker survey combining data on attitudes to race and immigration with questions on mobility history as well as voting intention, media consumption and other background variables. Data is also geocoded to ward level and ward-level census variables appended. The quantitative research will be based on ONS longitudinal survey and census data, as well the large-scale Citizenship Surveys and Understanding Society surveys. We will identify individual respondents from the quantitative research and explore their responses through qualitative work, in the form of three focus groups - two in Greater London, one in Birmingham. These will probe connections between respondents' local and national identities, their intentions to move neighbourhood, and their opinions on immigration, interethnic relations, community cohesion and voting behaviour.In the past decade in Britain, the 'white working-class' has been the focus of unprecedented media and policy attention. While class is a longstanding discursive category, the prefix 'white' is an important rider. We live in an era of global migration. Population pressure from the global South, and demand for workers in the developed North, will power what some term a 'third demographic transition' involving significant declines in the white majority populations of the western world (Coleman 2010). In the UK, the upsurge in diversity arguably presents a greater challenge for the working-class part of the white British population than for the middle class. Why? First, because for lower-status members of dominant groups, their ethnic identity tends to be their most prestigious social identity (Yiftachel 1999). Second, minorities tend to be from disadvantaged backgrounds and are therefore more likely to compete for housing and jobs with the white working class. Finally, because the white working-class is less comfortable navigating the contours of the new global knowledge economy than the middle class, it is more attached to existential securities rooted in the local and national context (Skey 2011). How might the white working class respond to increasing diversity? Drawing upon Albert O. Hirschman's classic book Exit, Voice and Loyalty (1970), we posit three possible responses: 'exit', 'voice' and 'accommodation.' The first possibility is white 'exit': geographic segregation, or, in the extreme, 'white flight'. A second avenue is 'voice': spearheading an identity politics based on opposition to immigration and voting for white nationalist parties. A third possibility is accommodation, in which members of the white working-class become more comfortable with elevated levels of ethnic diversity in their neighbourhood and nation. From exploratory research and existing literature, we suggest that a three-stage pattern of voice, exit and accommodation may be a useful way of thinking about white working-class responses to diversity in the UK. In other words, initial diversity meets strong white working-class resistance, expressed in attitudes and voting. This is followed by a degree of white out-migration, and then by a decline in anti-immigration sentiment and far right voting. Yet these broad patterns require finer-grained analysis that takes both individual characteristics and local context into account. This project will test these propositions through quantitative and qualitative research. There are three major dimensions of white working class attitudes and behaviour we seek to explain. Namely, whether members of the white working-class: 1) are more likely than other groups to leave or avoid areas with large or growing minority populations; 2) oppose immigration more strongly if they reside in diverse or ethnically changing wards and local authorities; and 3) support far right parties more if they reside in diverse or ethnically changing wards and local authorities. A central question we seek to answer is whether inter-ethnic contact reduces white working-class antagonism toward minorities (the contact hypothesis), or whether increased diversity leads to white flight, leaving relatively tolerant whites remaining in diverse neighbourhoods. The latter, 'hydraulic' process mimics the contact hypothesis but does not signify increased accommodation. Telephone interview of 1869 individuals (YouGov) in Britain. Further details available in the YouGov Archive Birbeck results pdf which is available in the related resources section of this project record.

The data collection contains population projections for UK ethnic groups and all local area by age (single year of age up to 100+) and sex. Included in the data set are also input data to the cohort component model that was used to project populations into the future-fertility rates, mortality rates, international migration flows and internal migration probabilities. Also included in data set are output data: Number of deaths, births and internal migrants. All data included are for the years 2011 to 2061. We have produced two ethnic population projections for UK local authorities, based on information on 2011 Census ethnic populations and 2010-2011-2012 ethnic components. Both projections align fertility and mortality assumptions to ONS assumptions. Where they differ is in the migration assumptions. In LEEDS L1 we employ internal migration rates for 2001 to 2011, including periods of boom and bust. We use a new assumption about international migration anticipating that the UK may leave the EU (BREXIT). In LEEDS L2 we use average internal migration rates for the 5 year period 2006-11 and the official international migration flow assumptions with a long term balance of +185 thousand per annum. This project aims to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition in the United Kingdom's population at national and sub-national levels. The ethnic transition is the change in population composition from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. In the decade 2001-2011 the UK population grew strongly as a result of high immigration, increased fertility and reduced mortality. Both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Leeds University estimated the growth or decline in the sixteen ethnic groups making up the UK's population in 2001. The 2011 Census results revealed that both teams had over-estimated the growth of the White British population and under-estimated the growth of the ethnic minority populations. The wide variation between our local authority projected populations in 2011 and the Census suggested inaccurate forecasting of internal migration. We propose to develop, working closely with ONS as our first external partner, fresh estimates of mid-year ethnic populations and their components of change using new data on the later years of the decade and new methods to ensure the estimates agree in 2011 with the Census. This will involve using population accounting theory and an adjustment technique known as iterative proportional fitting to generate a fully consistent set of ethnic population estimates between 2001 and 2011. We will study, at national and local scales, the development of demographic rates for ethnic group populations (fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration). The ten year time series of component summary indicators and age-specific rates will provide a basis for modelling future assumptions for projections. We will, in our main projection, align the assumptions to the ONS 2012-based principal projection. The national assumptions will need conversion to ethnic groups and to local scale. The ten years of revised ethnic-specific component rates will enable us to study the relationships between national and local demographic trends. In addition, we will analyse a consistent time series of local authority internal migration. We cannot be sure, at this stage, how the national-local relationships for each ethnic group will be modelled but we will be able to test our models using the time series. Of course, all future projections of the population are uncertain. We will therefore work to measure the uncertainty of component rates. The error distributions can be used to construct probability distributions of future populations via stochastic projections so that we can define confidence intervals around our projections. Users of projections are always interested in the impact of the component assumptions on future populations. We will run a set of reference projections to estimate the magnitude and direction of impact of international migrations assumptions (net effect of immigration less emigration), of internal migration assumptions (the net effect of in-migration less out-migration), of fertility assumptions compared with replacement level, of mortality assumptions compared with no change and finally the effect of the initial age distribution (i.e. demographic potential). The outputs from the project will be a set of technical reports on each aspect of the research, journal papers submitted for peer review and a database of projection inputs and outputs available to users via the web. The demographic inputs will be subject to quality assurance by Edge Analytics, our second external partner. They will also help in disseminating these inputs to local government users who want to use them in their own ethnic projections. In sum, the project will show how a wide range of secondary data sources can be used in theoretically refined demographic models to provide us with a more reliable picture of how the UK population is going to change in ethnic composition. Base year data (2011) are derived from the 2011 census, vital statistics and ONS migration data. Subsequent population data are computed with a cohort component model.