Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at 5.38 percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at four percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at 1.75 percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to 3.5 percent, the ECB refi rate to 2.65 percent, the Bank of England bank rate to 3.33 percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to 0.75 percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

Credit unions have experienced growth in recent years, stemming from increased membership and elevated interest rates throughout the period. The industry experienced improving macroeconomic conditions over the past five years, credit unions benefitted from increased consumer borrowing. Although at the onset of the period the industry was negatively impacted by economic volatility. Economic uncertainty led consumers to limit spending, while interest rates declined because the Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds Rate to the zero-bound range. Revenue climbed marginally by 0.2% in 2020. However, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in an attempt to curb inflation in 2022, industry revenue benefited. The industry experienced greater interest income demand although loan volumes were limited. However, in the latter part of the period the Fed slashed interest rates as inflationary pressures eased, hindering interest income but boosting loan demand volumes. Overall, industry revenue swelled at a CAGR of 2.1% to $113.1 billion over the past five years, including a 1.6% jump in 2025 alone. Industry profit has also climbed due to greater interest income revenue and will comprise 19.9% of revenue in 2025. Changes in the regulatory environment have and will continue to shape the direction of this industry. Greater demand for credit unions increases their systemic importance to the overall economy. These intermediaries are federally insured, so any liquidity crisis requiring federal intervention would burden taxpayers. Legislation dictating stricter capital requirements has been passed under the National Credit Union Association's Risk-Based Capital Final Rule despite lobbying and opposition. Despite an intensified regulatory landscape, industry revenue is expected to expand at a CAGR of 0.8% to $118.0 billion over the five years to 2030. As the economy settles back to normal, consumer borrowing activity is expected to mount. The industry is also likely to endure greater competition from commercial banks, as their improving customer satisfaction threatens credit union membership. Despite this challenge, credit unions are expected to continue to receive strong demand for mortgages as the rate of a 30-year conventional mortgage is expected to decline over the next five years.

The benchmark interest rate in Pakistan was last recorded at 12 percent. This dataset provides - Pakistan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Revenue growth for the Finance and Insurance sector has varied in recent years, as a result of differing economic trends. The sector plays a vital role in facilitating necessary financial transactions between consumers, businesses and government agencies. The core services provided by operators in this sector include providing insurance products needed by businesses and consumers to legally operate corporations and assets; offering, borrowing and depository services needed to finance new projects and safely save money; and investing to create and preserve investors' assets. A wide range of operators in the sector benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions over the past five years. For example, In 2022, the Fed increased interest rates in an effort to curb historically high inflation. Although higher interest rates increased investment income from fixed-income securities for the finance and insurance sector. Recently in 2024, the Fed cut interest rates as inflationary pressured have eased. Reduced interest rates will enable consumers to borrow money at lower interest rates which will increase loan demand although reduced rates will hinder investment income from fixed-income securities for the sector. The Fed is anticipated to cut rates further in 2025, boosting loan demand but hindering interest income from each loan. In addition, the growing prevalence of emerging technologies such as AI and data analytic tools has streamlined operations and helped reduce operational costs. These tools help industry companies identify trends and potential risks more efficiently. Also the growth of mobile and digital platforms has increased customer satisfaction and accessibility, boosting demand for finance and insurance products and services. Over the past five years, industry revenue grew at a CAGR of 3.8% to $7.4 trillion, including a 2.9% jump in 2025 alone, with profit climbing to 23.6% in the same year. Sector revenue will increase at a CAGR of 2.5% to $8.4 trillion over the five years to 2030. As the economy continues to improve, per capita disposable income is expected to increase. This will likely lead to increased financial activity by consumers, which will likely be processed and facilitated by operators in the sector. The Federal Reserve is also anticipated to cut interest rates further. Reduced interest rates will reduce interest income for operators but will increase the volume of loans. In addition, the acquisition of financial technology start-ups to compete in a changing technological and financial environment will increase.

Just as in many other countries, the housing market in the UK grew substantially during the coronavirus pandemic, fueled by robust demand and low borrowing costs. Nevertheless, high inflation and the increase in mortgage rates has led to house price growth slowing down. According to the forecast, 2024 is expected to see house prices decrease by three percent. Between 2024 and 2028, the average house price growth is projected at 2.7 percent. A contraction after a period of continuous growth In June 2022, the UK's house price index exceeded 150 index points, meaning that since 2015 which was the base year for the index, house prices had increased by 50 percent. In just two years, between 2020 and 2022, the index surged by 30 index points. As the market stood in December 2023, the average price for a home stood at approximately 284,691 British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2024 and slow down in the period between 2025 and 2028. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Central London slightly outperforming Greater London.

US loan brokers enjoyed significant revenue growth through much of the five years to 2024 as interest rates hit record lows in the early years and consumer confidence soared. Interest rates have remained artificially low since the 2008 global financial crisis. Low interest rates offered in the period and increased consumer spending spurred demand for mortgage and nonmortgage loan brokerage services, resulting in a surge in revenue of 33.8% in 2020 alone. These interest rates have steadily risen after the pandemic, bringing back a compressed lending environment in the latter half of the period. However, interest rates were cut in 2024, with additional rate cuts expected. Loan brokers also continue to contend with educated consumers attracted to the easy lending processes popularized by online lenders. Overall, industry revenue is set to increase at a CAGR of 12.5% to $26.6 billion over the five years to 2024. In 2024, revenue will climb by 2.1% as interest rate cuts increase mortgage demand. Loan originations for new homes and remodeling skyrocketed despite the adverse macroeconomic effects of the pandemic. Low interest rates and stay-at-home restrictions initially encouraged consumers to take on new loans, even amid a skeptical economic outlook. Since loan brokers generate revenue through commission or on a fee basis, the increase in loan originations contributed to revenue generation and profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes. Profit has been under pressure as industry wages have begun to outpace revenue growth. As this trend continues into the outlook period, profit will be constrained. Revenue for loan brokers is set to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% to $30.5 billion over the five years to 2029. Rekindling consumer confidence and greater access to credit will be the predominant drivers of industry growth over the coming years. In addition, the growth rate will climb as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to make further rate cuts at the onset of the outlook period. Demand for new loans will be strong, with the lending market being accommodating by historical standards.

The industry has a strong run of year-over-year growth through the end of 2024 up until the onset of the pandemic. Normally, a financially distressed Agricultural sector would cause industry revenue to climb, but the Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to near-zero in response to the pandemic and the staggering amount of fiscal aid provided to farmers via the United States Department of Agriculture Emergency Food Purchasing Plan and the Paycheck Protection Plan had greatly reduced farmers' demand for agricultural loans. This simultaneously caused revenue to decline in 2020. Following the pandemic, the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 to tackle rampant inflation which increased borrowing costs for farmers and reduced loan volumes for the industry. In 2024, as inflationary pressures eased, the Fed slashed interest rates, which will likely boost loan volumes but reduce interest income on each loan. Overall, industry revenue shrank at a CAGR of 1.4% to $20.4 billion over the past five years, including an expected decrease of 0.9% in 2024 alone. Because of such strong increases in governmental aid as a share of total farm income, net farm income has risen strongly in the past 18 months, which has reduced the sector's reliance on bank loans, with the industry exhibiting a revenue slide in 2020 as a result of a surprising fiscal stability agricultural sector, barring difficulties in the live-cattle segments because of strong increases in government transfer payments. Moreover, industry profitability has climbed due to the high interest rate environment in the latter part of the period which increased interest income on each loan. However, the high interest rate environment hindered loan volumes for the industry. The industry is expected to continue sliding through the end of 2029 as the farm economy is expected to exhibit declines. With declining agricultural prices and returns to farmers, it's expected that the sector will need to increasingly rely on this industry. Also, the anticipation of further rate cuts as inflationary pressures ease will reduce borrowing costs which will enable farmers to increase their loan demand. However, the industry is anticipated to decline at a CAGR of 0.9% to $19.5 billion over the five years to 2029.

The Multi-Unit Apartment and Townhouse Construction industry has displayed extreme annual demand fluctuations in recent years. The industry has benefited from favourable demand across the residential building market, supported by a combination of historically low interest rates, strong population growth before the COVID-19 outbreak and rising housing prices. A residential property price escalation over recent years has encouraged first-home buyers to opt for higher density apartments and townhouses as a lower cost alternative to traditional house and land packages. In addition, higher housing costs forced many New Zealanders to rent rather than buy, which encouraged property developers to invest in higher density apartment and townhouse construction. The industry has steadily captured an increased share of the total residential building market. Over the five years through 2023-24, industry revenue is expected to rise an annualised 9.6% to total $3.19 billion. However, revenue is anticipated to contract by 3.4% in 2023-24 in response to a mortgage interest rate upswing, the scaling back of some of the Central Government’s (Te Kāwanatanga o Aotearoa) COVID-19 pandemic stimulus, the phasing out of property tax deductions and tightening bank lending practices. However, the government has boosted stimulus towards developing affordable housing options, which is likely to support industry activity. Industry performance is forecast to deteriorate over the next five years, including further declining short-term housing investment and dwelling consent due to scaled-back government stimulus measures and higher interest rates. Industry revenue is projected to grow marginally at an annualised 0.2% over the five years through 2028-29, to $3.22 billion. Despite this downward trend, multi-unit apartments and townhouse construction is projected to continue capturing an increasing share of total residential building construction.

Auto leasing, loans and sales financing is comprised of establishments that provide sales financing or leasing in combination with sales financing for automobiles. During the period, growth in consumer spending drove demand for these services, while a rising prime rate drove up the cost of (and therefore revenue generated by) industry services, resulting in revenue growth. The industry experienced declines in revenue at the onset of the period as it faced depressed consumer demand and a lower prime rate due to the pandemic. The industry returned to growth in 2023 as consumer spending climbed and the prime rate was raised to combat inflation. Key economic indicators, particularly strong demand to replace aging vehicles, boded well for financiers over the past couple of years. The economic downturn at the onset of the period caused consumers to postpone large capital purchases like automobiles, which reduced demand for industry services in the same year. Revenue rebounded in 2023 as access to credit climbed. Higher interest rates in the latter part of the period limited the growth in demand for auto loans. Although in 2024, the Fed cut interest rates as inflationary pressures eased, which will boost loan demand for automobiles. In addition, the Fed is anticipated to cut rates further in 2025 which will further boost demand for automobile loans. Overall, over the past five years, industry revenue has grown at a CAGR of 2.1% to reach $172.0 billion, including a 1.5% decline in 2025 alone. Industry profit has declined over the past five years and will account for 23.9% of revenue in 2025. Growth at the onset of the outlook period will likely be limited. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates further in the latter part of the period as inflationary pressures continue to ease. Lower interest rates will provide a boost for industry services as demand for new auto loans and leases is expected to jump. In addition, the improving economic trends in access to credit, consumer confidence and rising levels of disposable income levels will provide a boost to industry revenue as consumers will be better able to afford higher-priced automobiles and new cars. Overall, industry revenue is expected to climb at a CAGR of 1.5% to $185.0 billion over the five years to 2030.

Hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2024 to reach €155.8 billion. Private spending on home renovation and maintenance, construction activity, environmental awareness and the number of households each play their part in determining sales. The EU and the UK enjoyed a housing market boom prior to 2023, when soaring mortgage rates deterred many from buying a new house. While demand for outfitting new houses is down, more Europeans are turning to repair, maintenance and renovation work on their existing properties, helping to raise sales of hardware and home improvement products. This trend accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people confined to their homes looked to refresh their surroundings and found themselves with more time to dedicate to DIY projects. Hardware and home improvement stores were deemed by many governments as essential businesses, allowing them to remain open during the lockdowns. In 2024, revenue growth is expected to be constrained by the cost-of-living crisis. Shoppers are increasingly price-sensitive and many are thinking twice before spending in response to intense inflationary pressures, cutting sales for many hardware and home improvement stores. Price inflation is expected to outweigh falling sales volumes, leading to revenue growth of 1% in 2024. Over the five years through 2029, hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is slated to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.5% to reach €168 billion. Ever-growing levels of environmental awareness among Europeans will drive strong demand for sustainably sourced and energy-efficient products, like reclaimed wood and lithium-ion battery-powered hand tools. Competition from online-only retailers will continue to heat up, forcing hardware and home improvement stores to expand their in-store offerings to attract customers – augmented reality stations where shoppers can visualise their new products in their homes are one way retailers can try to do this.

Over the five years through 2024-25, UK banks' revenue is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.7% to £128.6 billion, including anticipated hike of 2% in 2024-25. After the financial crisis, low interest rates limited banks' interest in loans, hitting income. At the same time, a stricter regulatory environment, including increased capital requirements introduced under the Basel III banking reforms and ring-fencing regulations, constricted lending activity. To protect their profitability, banks have shut the doors of many branches and made substantial job cuts. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, the Bank of England adopted aggressive tightening of monetary policy, hiking interest rates to rein in spiralling inflation. The higher base rate environment lifted borrowing costs, driving interest income for banks, which reported skyrocketing profits in 2023-24. Although profit grew markedly, pressure to pass on higher rates to savers and fierce competition weighed on net interest income at the tail end of the year, the difference between interest paid and interest received. UK banks are set to continue performing well in 2024-25 as the higher interest rate environment maintains healthy interest income, aiding revenue growth. However, net interest income is set to dip marginally due to higher deposit costs and narrow margins on mortgage loans. With further rate cuts priced into markets, savings rates will drop in 2024-25, stemming the drop in net interest income. Over the five years through 2029-30, industry revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 3.3% to reach £151.1 billion. Regulatory restrictions, tougher stress tests and stringent lending criteria will also hamper revenue growth. Competition is set to remain fierce — both internally from lenders that deliver their services exclusively via digital channels and externally from alternative finance providers, like peer-to-peer lending platforms. The possibility of legislation like the Edinburgh reforms will drive investment and lending activity in the coming years, if introduced. However, concerns surrounding the repercussions of less stringent capital requirements and the already fragile nature of the UK financial system pose doubt as to whether any significant changes will be made.

Hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2024 to reach €155.8 billion. Private spending on home renovation and maintenance, construction activity, environmental awareness and the number of households each play their part in determining sales. The EU and the UK enjoyed a housing market boom prior to 2023, when soaring mortgage rates deterred many from buying a new house. While demand for outfitting new houses is down, more Europeans are turning to repair, maintenance and renovation work on their existing properties, helping to raise sales of hardware and home improvement products. This trend accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people confined to their homes looked to refresh their surroundings and found themselves with more time to dedicate to DIY projects. Hardware and home improvement stores were deemed by many governments as essential businesses, allowing them to remain open during the lockdowns. In 2024, revenue growth is expected to be constrained by the cost-of-living crisis. Shoppers are increasingly price-sensitive and many are thinking twice before spending in response to intense inflationary pressures, cutting sales for many hardware and home improvement stores. Price inflation is expected to outweigh falling sales volumes, leading to revenue growth of 1% in 2024. Over the five years through 2029, hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is slated to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.5% to reach €168 billion. Ever-growing levels of environmental awareness among Europeans will drive strong demand for sustainably sourced and energy-efficient products, like reclaimed wood and lithium-ion battery-powered hand tools. Competition from online-only retailers will continue to heat up, forcing hardware and home improvement stores to expand their in-store offerings to attract customers – augmented reality stations where shoppers can visualise their new products in their homes are one way retailers can try to do this.

The high interest rate environment experienced over the five years to 2025, along with overall economic growth, has benefitted the Commercial Banking industry in Canada. Banks have done an exceptional job diversifying revenue streams, due to higher interest rates and increasing regulations. The industry primarily generates revenue through interest income sources, such as business loans and mortgages, but it also generates income through noninterest sources, which include fees on a variety of services and commissions. Industry revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 13.9% to $490.4 billion over the past five years, with an expected decrease of 0.3% in 2025 alone. In addition, profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, is anticipated to climb throughout 2025 due to the decreased provisions for credit losses (PCL). Industry revenue generated by interest income sources depends on demand for loans by consumers and the interest banks can charge on that capital it lends out. Therefore, high interest rates have enabled banks to increasingly charge for loans. However, the recent rate cuts in the latter part of the period have limited the price banks can charge for loans, hindering the interest income from these loans, although, with lower rates, commercial banks are anticipated to encounter growing loan volumes. Also, technological innovations have disrupted traditional banking features. The growing trends of online and mobile banking have increased customer engagement and loyalty, which has further aided the industry's expansion. Over the five years to 2030, projected interest rate declines and improvements in corporate profit are still anticipated to boost interest income from lending products. However, the remarkable debt levels of Canadian households make it increasingly likely that a period of deleveraging will begin over the next five years. Quicker growth rates in household debt and consumer spending are expected to increase interest income. In addition, improving macroeconomic conditions, such as unemployment and private investment, are expected to further boost revenue. Nonetheless, industry revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% to $532.5 billion over the five years to 2030.

Hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2024 to reach €155.8 billion. Private spending on home renovation and maintenance, construction activity, environmental awareness and the number of households each play their part in determining sales. The EU and the UK enjoyed a housing market boom prior to 2023, when soaring mortgage rates deterred many from buying a new house. While demand for outfitting new houses is down, more Europeans are turning to repair, maintenance and renovation work on their existing properties, helping to raise sales of hardware and home improvement products. This trend accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people confined to their homes looked to refresh their surroundings and found themselves with more time to dedicate to DIY projects. Hardware and home improvement stores were deemed by many governments as essential businesses, allowing them to remain open during the lockdowns. In 2024, revenue growth is expected to be constrained by the cost-of-living crisis. Shoppers are increasingly price-sensitive and many are thinking twice before spending in response to intense inflationary pressures, cutting sales for many hardware and home improvement stores. Price inflation is expected to outweigh falling sales volumes, leading to revenue growth of 1% in 2024. Over the five years through 2029, hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is slated to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.5% to reach €168 billion. Ever-growing levels of environmental awareness among Europeans will drive strong demand for sustainably sourced and energy-efficient products, like reclaimed wood and lithium-ion battery-powered hand tools. Competition from online-only retailers will continue to heat up, forcing hardware and home improvement stores to expand their in-store offerings to attract customers – augmented reality stations where shoppers can visualise their new products in their homes are one way retailers can try to do this.

Hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2024 to reach €155.8 billion. Private spending on home renovation and maintenance, construction activity, environmental awareness and the number of households each play their part in determining sales. The EU and the UK enjoyed a housing market boom prior to 2023, when soaring mortgage rates deterred many from buying a new house. While demand for outfitting new houses is down, more Europeans are turning to repair, maintenance and renovation work on their existing properties, helping to raise sales of hardware and home improvement products. This trend accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people confined to their homes looked to refresh their surroundings and found themselves with more time to dedicate to DIY projects. Hardware and home improvement stores were deemed by many governments as essential businesses, allowing them to remain open during the lockdowns. In 2024, revenue growth is expected to be constrained by the cost-of-living crisis. Shoppers are increasingly price-sensitive and many are thinking twice before spending in response to intense inflationary pressures, cutting sales for many hardware and home improvement stores. Price inflation is expected to outweigh falling sales volumes, leading to revenue growth of 1% in 2024. Over the five years through 2029, hardware and home improvement stores’ revenue is slated to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.5% to reach €168 billion. Ever-growing levels of environmental awareness among Europeans will drive strong demand for sustainably sourced and energy-efficient products, like reclaimed wood and lithium-ion battery-powered hand tools. Competition from online-only retailers will continue to heat up, forcing hardware and home improvement stores to expand their in-store offerings to attract customers – augmented reality stations where shoppers can visualise their new products in their homes are one way retailers can try to do this.

The industry has experienced increased volatility during the current period due to fluctuations in demand from industrial and construction markets. Demand from the construction market is estimated to have declined during the period, which, however, was fully offset by growth in demand from the consumer market. Demand from the industrial market has remained largely unchanged. Volatility in interest and mortgage rates, as well as changes in consumer and business confidence during the period, have been the major drivers of changing demand and profit during the period. Additionally, pandemic-driven supply chain disruptions contributed to elevated price volatility for industry products. Overall, industry revenue is projected to stagnate during the period, with revenue remaining at slightly less than $3.0 billion. Most domestic demand is fulfilled by imported pottery, ceramics and plumbing fixtures. China, in particular, accounts for half of industry imports due to relatively low production costs and the established pottery and ceramics industry in China. However, Mexico has increased its dominance in the US as a major exporter of ceramics and pottery products to the US, taking advantage of the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. While imports from Canada are limited, Canada represents the second-largest foreign market for US-based industry operators due to Canada’s geographic proximity and strong trade relationships between the US and Canada. The industry is expected to grow over the projection period, driven by growing demand from construction and industrial markets, which are expected to benefit from expected declines in interest rates early in the outlook period. Additionally, anticipated depreciation in the US dollar is expected to make US-manufactured goods more affordable overseas, stimulating growth from foreign markets and contributing to overall industry growth. As a result, industry revenue is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 0.9%, reaching $3.1 billion by 2029.