1. Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets.
2. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modeling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain.
3. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34–64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structures to changes in short- and long-term population growth rates using transient life table response experiments (LTREs).
4. Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or non-breeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period.
5. We show that both short- and longer-term population changes of British-breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in non-breeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them. Methods Data collection protocols are described in the paper, and further references provided therein. Raw data were harmonised and converted to a standard format by SPI-Birds (https://spibirds.org/) and then collated into the input data provided here using code deposited on https://github.com/SPI-Birds/SPI-IPM. Details on this step of data processing will be added to https://spi-birds.github.io/SPI-IPM/. The MCMC sample data files are the outputs of the integrated population models fitted in the study. Please refer to the published article and material deposited on the associated GitHub repository for more details.

Isolation caused by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation can destabilize populations. Populations relying on the inflow of immigrants can face reduced fitness due to inbreeding depression as fewer new individuals arrive. Empirical studies of the demographic consequences of isolation are critical to understanding how populations persist through changing conditions. We used a 34-year demographic and environmental dataset from a population of cooperatively-breeding Florida Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) to create mechanistic models linking environmental and demographic factors to population growth rates. We found that the population has not declined despite both declining immigration and increasing inbreeding, owing to a coinciding response in breeder survival. We find evidence of density-dependent immigration, breeder survival, and fecundity, indicating that interactions between vital rates and local density play a role in buffering the population against change. Our study elucidates..., All work was approved by the Cornell University Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC 2010-0015) and authorized by permits from the US Fish and Wildlife Service (TE824723-8), the US Geological Survey (banding permit 07732), and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (LSSC-10-00205)., , # Density dependence maintains long-term stability despite increased isolation and inbreeding in the Florida Scrub-Jay

https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.p2ngf1vz3

This dataset contains raw census data (FullLOI.txt), derived vital rates (vr_clean_F_4stageDemo.rdata, vr_clean_M_4stageDemo.rdata), ecological metrics (reqsoi_update.txt, acorns_update.txt, TerrYrBurnArea.txt, TerrMap.txt, TerrsToKeep.txt, densityCalcDemo.rdata, env_var_updateDemo.txt, envFac_annual.txt), pedigree information (pedInbr.txt, kinship_coef_Demo.rdata), and demographic models created using these data (vr_modelsDemo_revision_20240518.rdata, vr_modelsDemo.rdata, Demo_LTRE_results_20240518.rdata), including model validation results (vr_modelsDemo_validation_revisions_20240518.rdata).

Description of the data and file structure

FullLOI.txt

• USFWS: Individual ID
• Year: Year of census
• TerrYr: Te...

United States US: Population: Growth data was reported at 0.713 % in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.734 % for 2016. United States US: Population: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.979 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.702 % in 1960 and a record low of 0.711 % in 2013. United States US: Population: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.; ; Derived from total population. Population source: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision, (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average;

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the Lee County population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of Lee County across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2023, the population of Lee County was 834,573, a 1.48% increase year-by-year from 2022. Previously, in 2022, Lee County population was 822,391, an increase of 3.98% compared to a population of 790,888 in 2021. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2023, population of Lee County increased by 390,670. In this period, the peak population was 834,573 in the year 2023. The numbers suggest that the population has not reached its peak yet and is showing a trend of further growth. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2023

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2023)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the Lee County is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in Lee County population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Lee County Population by Year. You can refer the same here

1. Mutual reinforcement between abiotic and biotic factors can drive small populations into a catastrophic downward spiral to extinction – a process known as the 'extinction vortex.' However, empirical studies investigating extinction dynamics in relation to species' traits have been lacking.
2. We assembled a database of 35 vertebrate populations monitored to extirpation over a period of at least ten years, represented by 32 different species, including 25 birds, five mammals and two reptiles. We supplemented these population time series with species-specific mean adult body size to investigate whether this key intrinsic trait affects the dynamics of populations declining towards extinction.
3. We performed three analyses to quantify the effects of adult body size on three characteristics of population dynamics: time to extinction, population growth rate, and residual variability in population growth rate.
4. Our results provide support for the existence of extinction vortex dynamics in extirpated populations. We show that populations typically decline non-linearly to extinction, while both the rate of population decline, and variability in population growth rate increase as extinction is approached. Our results also suggest that smaller-bodied species are particularly prone to the extinction vortex, with larger increases in rates of population decline and population growth rate variability when compared to larger-bodied species.
5. Our results reaffirm and extend our understanding of extinction dynamics in real-life extirpated populations. In particular, we suggest that smaller-bodied species may be at greater risk of rapid collapse to extinction than larger-bodied species, and thus management of smaller-bodied species should focus on maintaining higher population abundances as a priority.

Bumble bees (Bombus) are vitally important pollinators of wild plants and agricultural crops worldwide. Fragmentary observations, however, have suggested population declines in several North American species. Despite rising concern over these observations in the United States, highlighted in a recent National Academy of Sciences report, a national assessment of the geographic scope and possible causal factors of bumble bee decline is lacking. Here, we report results of a 3-y interdisciplinary study of changing distributions, population genetic structure, and levels of pathogen infection in bumble bee populations across the United States. We compare current and historical distributions of eight species, compiling a database of >73,000 museum records for comparison with data from intensive nationwide surveys of >16,000 specimens. We show that the relative abundances of four species have declined by up to 96% and that their surveyed geographic ranges have contracted by 23–87%, some within the last 20 y. We also show that declining populations have significantly higher infection levels of the microsporidian pathogen Nosema bombi and lower genetic diversity compared with co-occurring populations of the stable (nondeclining) species. Higher pathogen prevalence and reduced genetic diversity are, thus, realistic predictors of these alarming patterns of decline in North America, although cause and effect remain uncertain. Bumble bees (Bombus) are integral wild pollinators within native plant communities throughout temperate ecosystems, and recent domestication has boosted their economic importance in crop pollination to a level surpassed only by the honey bee. Their robust size, long tongues, and buzz-pollination behavior (high-frequency buzzing to release pollen from flowers) significantly increase the efficiency of pollen transfer in multibillion dollar crops such as tomatoes and berries. Disturbing reports of bumble bee population declines in Europe have recently spilled over into North America, fueling environmental and economic concerns of global decline. However, the evidence for large-scale range reductions across North America is lacking. Many reports of decline are unpublished, and the few published studies are limited to independent local surveys in northern California/southern Oregon, Ontario, Canada, and Illinois. Furthermore, causal factors leading to the alleged decline of bumble bee populations in North America remain speculative. One compelling but untested hypothesis for the cause of decline in the United States entails the spread of a putatively introduced pathogen, Nosema bombi, which is an obligate intracellular microsporidian parasite found commonly in bumble bees throughout Europe but largely unstudied in North America. Pathogenic effects of N. bombi may vary depending on the host species and reproductive caste and include reductions in colony growth and individual life span and fitness. Population genetic factors could also play a role in Bombus population decline. For instance, small effective population sizes and reduced gene flow among fragmented habitats can result in losses of genetic diversity with negative consequences, and the detrimental impacts of these genetic factors can be especially intensified in bees. Population genetic studies of Bombus are rare worldwide. A single study in the United States identified lower genetic diversity and elevated genetic differentiation (FST) among Illinois populations of the putatively declining B. pensylvanicus relative to those of a codistributed stable species. Similar patterns have been observed in comparative studies of some European species, but most investigations have been geographically restricted and based on limited sampling within and among populations. Although the investigations to date have provided important information on the increasing rarity of some bumble bee species in local populations, the different survey protocols and limited geographic scope of these studies cannot fully capture the general patterns necessary to evaluate the underlying processes or overall gravity of declines. Furthermore, valid tests of the N. bombi hypothesis and its risk to populations across North America call for data on its geographic distribution and infection prevalence among species. Likewise, testing the general importance of population genetic factors in bumble bee decline requires genetic comparisons derived from sampling of multiple stable and declining populations on a large geographic scale. From such range-wide comparisons, we provide incontrovertible evidence that multiple Bombus species have experienced sharp population declines at the national level. We also show that declining populations are associated with both high N. bombi infection levels and low genetic diversity. This data was used in the paper "Patterns of widespread decline in North American bumble bees" published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of United States of America. For more information about this dataset contact: Sydney A. Cameron: scameron@life.illinois.edu James Strange: James.Strange@ars.usda.gov Resources in this dataset:Resource Title: Data from: Patterns of Widespread Decline in North American Bumble Bees (Data Dictionary). File Name: meta.xmlResource Description: This is an XML data dictionary for Data from: Patterns of Widespread Decline in North American Bumble Bees.Resource Title: Patterns of Widespread Decline in North American Bumble Bees (DWC Archive). File Name: occurrence.csvResource Description: File modified to remove fields with no recorded values.Resource Title: Patterns of Widespread Decline in North American Bumble Bees (DWC Archive). File Name: dwca-usda-ars-patternsofwidespreaddecline-bumblebees-v1.1.zipResource Description: Data from: Patterns of Widespread Decline in North American Bumble Bees -- this is a Darwin Core Archive file. The Darwin Core Archive is a zip file that contains three documents.

The occurrence data is stored in the occurrence.txt file. The metadata that describes the columns of this document is called meta.xml. This document is also the data dictionary for this dataset. The metadata that describes the dataset, including author and contact information for this dataset is called eml.xml.

Find the data files at https://bison.usgs.gov/ipt/resource?r=usda-ars-patternsofwidespreaddecline-bumblebees

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the Plains population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of Plains across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2023, the population of Plains was 552, a 0.90% decrease year-by-year from 2022. Previously, in 2022, Plains population was 557, a decline of 1.24% compared to a population of 564 in 2021. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2023, population of Plains decreased by 311. In this period, the peak population was 863 in the year 2000. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2023

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2023)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the Plains is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in Plains population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Plains Population by Year. You can refer the same here

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development, reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute < 1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa.

Methods For each mammal species i with available life-history information, we searched SCOPUS for studies (published before 2018) where the title, abstract, or keywords contained the following search terms:

Scientific species namei AND (demograph* OR population OR life-history OR "life history" OR model) AND (climat* OR precipitation OR rain* OR temperature OR weather) AND (surv* OR reprod* OR recruit* OR brood OR breed* OR mass OR weight OR size OR grow* OR offspring OR litter OR lambda OR birth OR mortality OR body OR hatch* OR fledg* OR productiv* OR age OR inherit* OR sex OR nest* OR fecund* OR progression OR pregnan* OR newborn OR longevity).

We used the R package taxize (Chamberlain and Szöcs 2013) to resolve discrepancies in scientific names or taxonomic identifiers and, where applicable, searched SCOPUS using all scientific names associated with a species in the Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS; http://www.itis.gov).

We did not extract information on demographic-rate-climate relationships if:

A study reported on single age or stage-specific demographic rates (e.g., Albon et al. 2002; Rézoiki et al. 2016)
A study used an experimental design to link demographic rates to climate variation (e.g., Cain et al. 2008)
A study considered the effects of climate only indirectly or qualitatively. In most cases, this occurred when demographic rates differed between seasons (e.g., dry vs. wet season) but were not linked explicitly to climatic factors (e.g., varying precipitation amount between seasons) driving these differences (e.g., de Silva et al. 2013; Gaillard et al. 2013).

We included several studies of the same population as different studies assessed different climatic variables or demographic rates or spanned different years (e.g., for Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, Albon et al. 2017; Douhard et al. 2016).

We note that we can miss a potentially relevant study if our search terms were not mentioned in the title, abstract, or keywords. To our knowledge, this occurred only once, for Mastomys natalensis (we included the relevant study [Leirs et al. 1997] into our review after we were made aware that it assesses climate-demography relationships in the main text).

Lastly, we checked for potential database bias by running the search terms for a subset of nine species in Web of Science. The subset included three species with > three climate-demography studies published and available in SCOPUS (Rangifer tarandus, Cervus elaphus, Myocastor coypus); three species with only one climate-demography study obtained from SCOPUS (Oryx gazella, Macropus rufus, Rhabdomys pumilio); and another three species where SCOPUS did not return any published study (Calcochloris obtusirostris, Cynomops greenhalli, Suncus remyi). Species in the three subcategories were randomly chosen. Web of Science did not return additional studies for the three species where SCOPUS also failed to return a potentially suitable study. For the remaining six species, the total number of studies returned by Web of Science differed, but the same studies used for this review were returned, and we could not find any additional studies that adhered to our extraction criteria.

Description of key collected data

From all studies quantitatively assessing climate-demography relationships, we extracted the following information:

Geographic location - The center of the study area was always used. If coordinates were not provided in a study, we assigned coordinates based on the study descriptions of field sites and data collection.
Terrestrial biome - The study population was assigned to one of 14 terrestrial biomes (Olson et al. 2001) corresponding to the center of the study area. As this review is focused on general climatic patterns affecting demographic rates, specific microhabitat conditions described for any study population were not considered.
Climatic driver - Drivers linked to demographic rates were grouped as either local/regional precipitation & temperature values or derived indices (e.g., ENSO, NAO). The temporal extent (e.g., monthly, seasonal, annual, etc.) and aggregation type (e.g., minimum, maximum, mean, etc.) of drivers was also noted.
Demographic rate modeled - To facilitate comparisons, we grouped the demographic rates into either survival, reproductive success (i.e., whether or not reproduction occurre, reproductive output (i.e., number or rate of offspring production), growth (including stage transitions), or condition that determines development (i.e., mass or size). 
Stage or sex modeled - We retrieved information on responses of demographic rates to climate for each age class, stage, or sex modeled in a given study.
Driver effect - We grouped effects of drivers as positive (i.e., increased demographic rates), negative (i.e., reduced demographic rate), no effect, or context-dependent (e.g., positive effects at low population densities and now effect at high densities). We initially also considered nonlinear effects (e.g., positive effects at intermediate values and negative at extremes of a driver), but only 4 studies explicitly tested for nonlinear effects, by modelling squared or cubic climatic drivers in combination with driver interactions. We therefore considered nonlinear demographic effects as context dependent.  
Driver interactions - We noted any density dependence modeled and any non-climatic covariates included (as additive or interactive effects) in the demographic-rate models assessing climatic effects.
Future projections of climatic driver - In studies that indicated projections of drivers under climate change, we noted whether drivers were projected to increase, decrease, or show context-dependent trends. For studies that provided no information on climatic projections, we quantified projections as described in Detailed description of climate-change projections below (see also climate_change_analyses_mammal_review.R).

In the year 1975 the death rate has been higher than the birth rate for the first time since the end of the war. This means that our country has now the same problem as the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic namely a declining population. A decline in the birth rate is a phenomenon that could be observed in many industrialised countries since the 60s. This resulted in questions and problems that concern many areas of the economic an social development. The need for kindergartens, class rooms, apartments and workplaces has to be evaluated anew constantly as well as the necessary number of foreign workers or the financial burden for the contributors to the public pension scheme. In the developing countries on the other hand, it is the population boom in connection with the unemployment rate and the shortage of food that causes immense problems - which in return has an impact on the rich countries. Therefore, worldwide measures are taken understand the factors that influence the population growth and the birth rate so that decisions can be made for the future. The International Statistic Institute conducts, commissioned by the United Nations, a World-Fertility-Survey (WFS) in numerous countries; the up until now largest research on fertility and its conditions. The title birth-biography implies that this special survey collects information that cannot be gained from the existing birth statistic; the reports from the registrar’s offices to the Central Statistical Office cannot be merged with data from previous reports and also can not be evaluated together. To a limited extent, special question on children born alive had already been posed in the Mikrozensus in 1971 (Mikrozensus MZ7102). Since the number of answers was quite high, important partial results had already been gained. This special survey also concentrates on question on regional and social origin, occupation of the women in connection with the birth of their children and previous marriages. It is also noted if and at what age a child died. This is necessary for research on social conditions of infant mortality which is still quite high in Austria. Probability: Stratified: Disproportional Face-to-face interview

The Costa Rica Bird Observatories is a nationwide monitoring initiative created and managed through partnerships among the National Institute of Biodiversity (INBio), US Forest Service, Klamath Bird Observatory, and many other collaborators, both private and public. The Observatories’ primary objective includes the promotion of bird conservation and education in Costa Rica through scientific monitoring.

Humans and birds depend on intact ecosystems for food resources, shelter and other broad environmental processes such as carbon sequestration and atmospheric regulation. Human enterprise routinely degrades ecosystems causing the global decline of many bird populations. To manage and conserve bird species in peril we must identify factors preventing population-level recovery, thereby moving beyond estimates of mere population size to demographics and to the underlying causes of population changes.

Tiger (Panthera tigris) is an indicator species of ecological health and conservation efforts. Due to excessive poaching, the tiger was locally extinct in Panna Tiger Reserve, central India. Subsequent successful reintroduction efforts have brought the species back from the verge of extinction and have demonstrated the success of conservation translocations in response to such critical situations. To understand the demographic characteristics of the tigers reintroduced to Panna Tiger Reserve, we used an ensemble approach of different sampling techniques and direct observations from a long-term data-set spanning more than 10 years. We evaluated different demographic indicators (population status, growth rate, mean litter size, inter-birth interval, and survival probability). Since reintroduction in 2009, 18 females have recruited 120 cubs from 45 litters. This led to 59 individuals in 2021 with a growth rate of ~26%. The mean litter size was 2.66 (SE 0.1), and the inter-birth interval was 19.16 months (SE 0.5). The high survival rate of the reintroduced population (0.82±0.2) helped to achieve the success of reintroduction. We observed non-constant mortality trajectories for both sexes (higher survival probabilities for females) with a moderately higher risk of death in younger (<1 year) and older (>10 years) individuals. Our results showed the effectiveness of translocation and conservation efforts. The recovered population can be used as a founder for augmentation in other recovering tiger populations. A long-term tiger-centric management plan should be implemented in the area adjacent to Panna Tiger Reserve to conserve and secure the habitat of the entire landscape for the long-term survival of the reintroduced population in a metapopulation framework. Methods Data Collection Radio telemetry A total of 25 tigers (7 males and 18 females; Table S1) were radio-collared between March 2009 and June 2020 as a part of the long-term project entitled “Tiger Reintroduction and Recovery Programme in Panna Tiger Reserve, Madhya Pradesh.” Animals were captured and collared under the permission of the Madhya Pradesh Forest Department (MPFD Letter No./Exp./2009/1205 dated 31/8/09) following the capture rule and regulation of the Wildlife Protection Act, 1972 Section 11 (1A). Animals were tracked and immobilized, using a ‘Hellabrunn mixture’ (125 mg xylazine + 100 mg ketamine/ml) (Hafner et al., 1989) injected through a Tele-inject projector (Model 4V.31). The target individuals were chemically immobilized. The entire process took place under the supervision of a veterinarian. Tigers were fitted with Very High Frequency transmitters (15 individuals; Telonics® Inc) and VHF/ GPS/ UHF collars (10 individuals; African Wildlife Tracking® Inc and Vetronic Aerospace®). All collared tigers were monitored very intensively with UHF and satellite tools. Staff and researchers jointly monitored VHF collared individuals and tracked the animals 24 hours per day, 7 days per week for the duration of the study. Camera trapping Grid-based systematic camera trap sampling was carried out from 2012-2016 in a 4km2 grid cell size; a more intensive effort took place from 2017-2021 with a 2km2 grid cell size (Jhala et al., 2019). The entire PTR was sampled systematically by placing a pair of camera traps (531 locations) on either side of dirt roads, animal trails, or dry river beds to maximize the chances of capturing tigers on camera. Camera traps were active for at least 30 days during the winter season. In addition to the double-sided camera traps, a single-sided continuous camera trap monitoring system (CCMS) was adapted to monitor the movement of non-collared tigers throughout the year. We used a grid-based approach (same 2km2 grid cell size) for CCMS to sample throughout PTR. Simultaneously, camera traps were also placed opportunistically at vantage points, kills, and nearby den sites. Cameras were checked every 5-7 days. Individually identifiable tiger pictures, including both flanks, were updated every year. Newly captured tiger images were compared manually by using their respective unique stripe patterns. The intensive use of radio-telemetry and camera trapping helped us to document the emigration of tigers from PTR. As there are no other source populations around PTR, we did not record any immigration events during 2009-2021. Routine patrolling with elephants, camera traps, and intensive radio-telemetry helped us to quantify the IBI, initial litter size and cub survival. Analytical methods Population status and growth rate All adult and sub-adult tigers were radio-collared during the initial days after reintroduction. With a growing tiger population, all individuals were not radio-tagged; therefore, the camera trap-based survey method was adapted to understand the movement of non-collared animals. To calculate the growth rate of tigers, we used the software Vortex version 10 (Lacy & Pollak, 2014) with 100 iterations. Vortex is appropriate for modelling species with low fecundity and long life spans and is the most commonly used software in published reintroduction models (Armstrong & Reynolds, 2012). The growth rate (r) of r > 0 indicates the population grows, while r < 0 indicates a population decline. Similarly, the annual multiplicative growth rate (λ) indicates a positive population growth if λ > 1.0 (Nt+1 > Nt), while λ < 1.0 (Nt+1 < Nt) indicates a population decline. Litter size and inter-birth interval Tiger individuals were identified by their unique stripe patterns (McDougal, 1977; Karanth, 1995) on their left and right flanks. Recording and documenting actual litter size at birth for any free-ranging elusive large carnivores is difficult; therefore, we determined the litter size of the tiger at the first sighting. Once the first sight or photo captured of the female with cubs was recorded, the approximate date of birth of the cubs was estimated by deducting two months from the first appearance (Smith et al., 1987). However, for collared females, the litter size or date of birth of cubs was confirmed by the direct sighting, using radio-telemetry tracking. The IBI was calculated when the same female produced second or consecutive successful litters. We assumed the cubs were dead, if not photo captured or found to be moving with mothers for more than six months. Usually, females conceive and give birth to another litter within 4-10 months after losing all cubs of the previous litter; such instances were discarded for IBI calculations (Singh et al., 2013). Since our monitoring was intensive, we had a high detection of tigers during the study period, except for when the individuals dispersed outside the PTR. Survivorship The detection non-detection matrix was prepared by compiling camera trap, CCMS, and radio-telemetry (to ensure whether the individual was within the PTR or not) data, and data were analyzed in the Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) framework (Table S1); since the detection probability of an animal within its home range was not involved in our study, imperfect detection was intentionally not addressed in our analysis. We used the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS; Pledger et al., 2003) method to estimate the survival rate from one sampling period to the next; the survival rate is calculated as a proportion of animals alive at time ti versus time ti+1. Survival (ϕ) and recapture probability (p) depend on marked individuals' re-observation. Sex of each tiger, an intrinsic factor, and time (extrinsic factor) were included as covariates in the model of survival rate. As males and females have different life history traits, their survival probabilities might differ (Smith, 1993). Males show a lower survival probability than females in most mammalian species (Krebs, 1972). We modelled the survival probability using the ‘marked’ package (Laake et al., 2013) in R Core Team (2022). The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value was calculated for every model to determine the best fit model.

Database of 6,771 dated Iron Age burials from South Norway This study examines population dynamics in South Norway during the Iron Age, focusing on the mid-6th century crisis and its aftermath. Analysis of nearly 7,000 dated burials reveals a substantial decline of over 75 per cent post-6th century compared with the preceding period. Set against other archaeological data, this indicates a decline in the population of South Norway. The period of societal turmoil and decline may have started earlier, but was likely catalysed by the volcanic eruptions of 536 and 540 CE and the following colder period, and possible also by plague pandemics. The ramifications of the mid-6th century crisis were exacerbated by the population increase in the preceding periods, where the population may have been nearing its regional carrying capacity. Although devastating, the 6th century crisis may also have opened up new possibilities for those who made it through, perhaps initiating a brief period of relative social and economic equality, similar to the initial consequences of the Black Death. Contrasting with the 6th century, South Norway’s Viking Age saw ample burials, attributed to factors including a warmer climate, advanced agriculture, surplus production, trade expansion and increased slavery. The shift highlights complex interactions between environmental, economic and social factors in the shaping of population dynamics in Iron Age South Norway.

Many species show range expansions or contractions due to climate-change-induced changes in habitat suitability. In cold climates, many species that are limited by snow are showing range expansions due to reduced winter severity. The European polecat (Mustela putorius) occurs over large parts of Europe with its northern range limit in southern Fennoscandia. However, it is to date unknown what factors limit polecat distribution. We thus investigated whether climate or land-use variables are more important in determining the habitat suitability for polecats in Sweden. We hypothesized that 1) climatic factors, especially the yearly number of snow days, drive habitat suitability for polecats, and that, 2) as the number of snow days is predicted to decline in the near future, habitat suitability in northern Sweden will increase. We used a combination of sightings data and a selection of national maps of environmental factors to test these hypotheses using MaxEnt models. We also used maps of future climate predictions (2021–2050 and 2063–2098) to predict future habitat suitability. The number of snow days was the most important factor, negatively determining habitat suitability for polecats, as expected. Consequently, the predictions showed an increase in suitable habitat both in the current distribution range and in northern Sweden, especially along the coast of the Baltic Sea. Our results suggest that the polecat distribution is limited by snow and that reduced snow cover will likely result in a northward range expansion. However, the exact mechanisms for how snow limits polecats are still poorly understood. Consequently, we expect the Scandinavian polecat population to increase in numbers, in contrast to many populations elsewhere in Europe, where numbers are declining. Due to polecat predation, the expansion of the species might have cascading effects on other wildlife populations.

The 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) is a nationally representative sample survey covering 14,213 households, 13,220 women age 15-49, and 3,092 men age 15-54. The 2000 MDHS is similar, but much expanded in size and scope, to the 1992 MDHS. The survey was designed to provide information on fertility trends, family planning knowledge and use, early childhood mortality, various indicators of maternal and child health and nutrition, HIV/AIDS, adult and maternal mortality, and malaria control programme indicators. Unlike earlier surveys in Malawi, the 2000 MDHS sample was sufficiently large to allow for estimates of certain indicators to be produced for 11 districts in addition to estimates for national, regional, and urban-rural domains. Twenty-two mobile survey teams, trained and supervised by the National Statistical Office, conducted the survey from July to November 2000. The principal aim of the 2000 MDHS project is to provide up-to-date information on fertility and childhood mortality levels, nuptiality, fertility preferences, awareness and use of family planning methods, use of maternal and child health services, and knowledge and behaviours related to HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections. It was designed as a follow-on to the 1992 MDHS survey, a national-level survey of similar scope. The 2000 MDHS survey also strived to collect data that would be comparable to those collected under the international Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), sponsored by UNICEF. In broad terms, the 2000 MDHS survey aimed to : Assess trends in Malawi's demographic indicators-principally, fertility and mortality Assist in the evaluation of Malawi's health, population, and nutrition programmes Advance survey methodology in Malawi and contribute to national and international databases. In more specific terms, the 2000 MDHS survey was designed to provide data on the family planning and fertility behaviour of the Malawian population and to thereby enable policymakers to evaluate and enhance family planning initiatives in the country. Measure changes in fertility and contraceptive prevalence and at the same time, study the factors that affect these changes, such as marriage patterns, desire for children, availability of contraception, breastfeeding habits, and important social and economic factors. Examine basic indicators of maternal and child health and welfare in Malawi, including nutritional status, use of antenatal and maternity services, treatment of recent episodes of childhood illness, and use of immunisation services. A particular emphasis was placed on the area of malaria programmes, including prevention activities and treatment of episodes of fever. Describe levels and patterns of knowledge and behaviour related to the prevention of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections. Measure the level of adult and maternal mortality at the national level. Assess the status of women in the country. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FERTILITY Fertility Decline. The 2000 MDHS data indicate that there has been a modest decline in fertility since the 1992 MDHS. Large Fertility Differentials. Fertility levels remain high in Malawi, especially in rural parts of the country. The total fertility rate among rural women is 6.7 births per woman compared with 4.5 births in urban areas. Childbearing at Young Ages. One-third of adolescent females (age 15-19) have either already had a child or are currently pregnant. FAMILY PLANNING Increasing Use of Contraception. A principle cause of the fertility decline in Malawi is the steady increase in contraceptive use over the last decade. Changing Method Mix. Currently, the most widely used methods among married women are injectable contraceptives (16 percent), female sterilisation (5 percent), and the pill (3 percent). Source of Family Planning Methods. The survey results show that government-run facilities remain the major source for contraceptives in Malawi-providing family planning methods to 68 percent of the current users. CHILD HEALTH AND SURVIVAL Progress in Reducing Early Childhood Mortality. The 2000 MDHS data indicate that mortality of children under age 5 has declined since the early 1990s. Childhood Vaccination Coverage Declines. The 2000 MDHS results show that 70 percent of children age 12-23 months are fully vaccinated. Improved Breastfeeding Practices. The 2000 MDHS results show that exclusive breast-feeding of children under 4 months of age has increased to 63 percent from only 3 percent in the 1992 MDHS. Nutritional Status of Children. The results show no appreciable change in the nutritional status of children in Malawi since 1992; still, nearly half (49 percent) of the children under age five are chronically malnourished or stunted in their growth. MALARIA CONTROL PROGRAMME INDICATORS Bednets. The use of insecticide-treated bednets (mosquito nets) is a primary health intervention proven to reduce malaria transmission. Treatment of Fever in Children Under Age Five. The survey found that 42 percent of children under age five had a fever in the two weeks preceding the survey. WOMEN'S HEALTH Maternal Health Care. The survey findings indicate that use of antenatal services remains high in Malawi. Constraints to Use of Health Services. Women in the 2000 MDHS were asked whether certain circumstances constrain their access to and use of health services for themselves. Rising Maternal Mortality. The survey collected data allowing measurement of maternal mortality. For the period 1994-2000, the maternal mortality ratio was estimated at 1,120 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. This represents a rise from 620 maternal deaths per 100,000 estimated from the 1992 MDHS for the period 1986-1992. HIV/AIDS Impact of the Epidemic on Adult Mortality. All-cause mortality has risen by 76 percent among men and 74 percent among women age 15-49 during the 1990s. The age patterns of the increase are consistent with causes related to HIV/AIDS. Improved Knowledge of AIDS Prevention Methods. The 2000 MDHS results indicate that practical AIDS prevention knowledge has improved since the 1996 MKAPH survey. Condom Use. One of the main objectives of the National AIDS Control Programme is to encourage consistent and correct use of condoms, especially in high-risk sexual encounters. The HIV-testing Experience. The 2000 MDHS data show that 9 percent of women and 15 percent of men have been tested for HIV. However, more than 70 percent of both men and women, while not yet tested, said that they would like to be tested.

Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species – little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) – in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999–2011.Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus has wide applicability for evaluating population trajectories in other wildlife species.

Summary of GLMMs fixed effects of socio-economic factors and species traits on the probability of mammal decline in PAs.

As with many areas in Africa, Kenya has witnessed rapid human development in recent decades, including an increase in urbanization and an intensification of agriculture. The impact of these land use changes on wildlife populations have, however, rarely been examined. The Augur Buzzard is a widespread raptor species, thought to adapt relatively well to human alterations of habitat. In this study, we explore trends in Augur Buzzard (Buteo augur) territory occupancy over nearly two decades around Lake Naivasha, Kenya, in relation to land-use changes, particularly expansion in human housing and flower farms. We hypothesized that these changes would cause population declines in this species within our study area. Using remote-sensed satellite imagery, we found that human development (agriculture and human settlement) increased from 9 to 24% of the study area from 1995 to 2014. We found a 47% decline in active territories over this same time period, representing an annualized decline of 3.1%. Based on the length of three generations this would qualify this species to be uplisted to at least Vulnerable in our study area, raising our concerns that the same pattern may be occurring across the species’ range. We then explored whether abandonment of individual territories was associated with either (i) the current amount or (ii) the change in human development within a range of buffer circles of varying radii (0.1–5.0 km). Contrary to our expectations, no associations were found between human development and territorial abandonment, and thus we could not attribute specific territorial abandonment to these broad scale anthropogenic land cover changes. We encourage further research to investigate whether territorial abandonment may be associated with either finer resolution (habitat specific) changes, or sources of direct mortality, for example human persecution or electrocutions. These factors might explain the decline in this population better than broader scale increases in anthropogenic land cover.

Description of the terms under methods extracted from the reviewed papers reported in Fig 2.

BackgroundThe global population aging trend has intensified concerns regarding pancreatic cancer (PC), a leading cause of cancer-related mortality with a 5-year survival rate of 13%. This study evaluates the global burden, temporal trends, and socioeconomic disparities of PC among individuals aged ≥55 years using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.MethodsAge-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed across 204 countries. Joinpoint regression identified temporal trends (1990–2021), while Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) modeling projected future burden. Socioeconomic disparities were assessed via the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and risk factor contributions were quantified using decomposition analysis.ResultsIn 2021, Finland, Germany, and Japan exhibited the highest age-standardized PC prevalence (ASPR: 64.42–66.17 per 100,000 population), contrasting sharply with Mozambique (ASPR: 2.85 per 100,000 population). Mortality peaked in Greenland (age-standardized death rate, ASDR: 81.85 per 100,000 population) and Monaco (ASDR: 71.75 per 100,000 population). Males showed elevated burden across incidence, prevalence, and mortality (peak age: 70–74 years), with global trends persistently rising (average annual percentage change, AAPC >0, 1990–2021). China experienced a transient mortality decline (AAPC = −0.93, 2011–2015), linked to healthcare reforms. High SDI regions (e.g., Japan) faced amplified burdens driven by aging and metabolic risks, while smoking (15.4–28.5% of deaths and years lived with disability, YLDs) and hyperglycemia (37.8% of YLDs in the U.S.) dominated modifiable risks. Projections diverge significantly: China’s age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) burden is projected to increase from 27.96 (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 25.76, 30.16) in 2022 to 36.94 (UI: 0, 79.46) by 2045. In contrast, the global ASIR is expected to decline from 31.07 (UI: 30.06, 32.08) to 27.11 (UI: 8.73, 45.57).ConclusionPersistent socioeconomic and gender disparities underscore the need for targeted interventions, including tobacco control, glycemic management, and lifestyle modifications. Prioritizing aging populations in high-SDI regions and addressing underreported risks in low-SDI areas are critical for mitigating the growing PC burden.

Maize (Zea mays) is the most produced crop worldwide and the second most important bio-energy plant. Huge maize monoculture is considered a threat to biodiversity in agricultural landscapes and may also contribute to the decline of European brown hares (Lepus europaeus, Pallas 1778). Indeed, the intensification of agriculture has been identified as one of the main factors responsible for the decline of brown hare populations. A reason why large maize cultures can be particularly detrimental to animals consuming this plant is its poor nutritional value with respect to niacin. In this study, we investigated the effects of the proportion of area under maize crops on liver concentrations of niacin in free-living hares, on the reproductive output of does (females), and on the development of local populations, at nine study sites in Lower Austria. Hare numbers were estimated from spotlight counts in spring and autumn. Liver samples and uteri were obtained from hares shot in the same areas during regular autumn hunts. Number of offspring born to an individual female during the preceding reproductive period was determined by counting placental scars. Our results show a significant negative effect of the area under maize crops on liver concentrations of niacin of does and on their reproductive output. Further, we found a significant negative effect of the area under maize on the development of a population. Altogether, our findings indicate that high proportions of the area under maize crops contribute to the decline of brown hares by reduced fecundity of does and impaired development of local populations.