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Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure - Supplementary spatial data
Authors: Johan Meijer, Mark Huijbregts, Kees Schotten, Aafke Schipper
Research paper summary: Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world's last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.
Contents: The GRIP dataset consists of global and regional vector datasets in ESRI filegeodatabase and shapefile format, and global raster datasets of road density at a 5 arcminutes resolution (~8x8km). The GRIP dataset is mainly aimed at providing a roads dataset that is easily usable for scientific global environmental and biodiversity modelling projects. The dataset is not suitable for navigation. GRIP4 is based on many different sources (including OpenStreetMap) and to the best of our ability we have verified their public availability, as a criteria in our research. The UNSDI-Transportation datamodel was applied for harmonization of the individual source datasets. GRIP4 is provided under a Creative Commons License (CC-0) and is free to use. The GRIP database and future global road infrastructure scenario projections following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are described in the paper by Meijer et al (2018). Due to shapefile file size limitations the global file is only available in ESRI filegeodatabase format.
Regional coding of the other vector datasets in shapefile and ESRI fgdb format:
Road density raster data:
Keyword: global, data, roads, infrastructure, network, global roads inventory project (GRIP), SSP scenarios
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United States US: Population Density: People per Square Km data was reported at 35.608 Person/sq km in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 35.355 Person/sq km for 2016. United States US: Population Density: People per Square Km data is updated yearly, averaging 26.948 Person/sq km from Dec 1961 (Median) to 2017, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 35.608 Person/sq km in 2017 and a record low of 20.056 Person/sq km in 1961. United States US: Population Density: People per Square Km data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population density is midyear population divided by land area in square kilometers. Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship--except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of their country of origin. Land area is a country's total area, excluding area under inland water bodies, national claims to continental shelf, and exclusive economic zones. In most cases the definition of inland water bodies includes major rivers and lakes.; ; Food and Agriculture Organization and World Bank population estimates.; Weighted average;
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Heatwaves are a global issue that threaten microbial populations and deteriorate ecosystems. However, how river microbial communities respond to heatwaves and whether and how high temperatures exceed microbial adaptation remain unclear. In this study, we proposed four types of pulse temperature-induced microbial responses and predicted the possibility of microbial adaptation to high temperature in global rivers using ensemble machine learning models. Our findings suggest that microbial communities in parts of South American (e.g., Brazil and Chile) and Southeast Asian (e.g., Vietnam) countries are likely to change due to heatwave disturbance from 25 °C to 37 °C for consecutive days. Furthermore, the microbial communities in approximately 48.4% of the global river gauge stations are prone to fast stress inadaptation, with approximately 76.9% of these stations expected to exceed microbial adaptation after heatwave disturbances. If emissions of particulate matter with sizes not more than 2.5 μm (PM2.5, an indicator of human activities) increase by 2-fold, the number of global rivers associated with the fast stress adaptation type will decrease by ~13.7% after heatwave disturbances. Understanding microbial responses is crucially important for effective ecosystem management, especially for fragile and sensitive rivers facing heatwave events. All data and code aim to repeat the above findings.Other public data sourceFor global prediction, the physical and chemical properties of global rivers from the “GEMStat” website (https://gemstat.org/) were analyzed. A total of 6101 stations were extracted, including all physical and chemical river parameters mentioned in Table S3. Due to the scarcity of the data, their high resolution and the large extent of population shifts, human parameters were extracted at the national scale. The extracted human-related information and river parameters are provided in Table S3. Information from the nearest station calculated by the spherical distance was used to replenish the missing data. Net growth rates (number of rivers=5308) were obtained for global rivers.Population of the countries of the world: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/(Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics)Per capita GDP: http://data.worldbank.org.cn (World Bank Database)Forest cover and education index (HDI): http://hdr.undp.org/en/data (United Nations Development Programme Human Development Reports)Carbon emissions: https://stats.oecd.org/The average annual PM2.5 concentration: healtheffects.org/https://www.stateofglobalair.org/data/#/health/mapGlobal emissions of polluting gases: https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ap50 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR))Population density: http://data.un.org/Total number of tourists: https://www.unwto.org/(World Tourism Organization (UNWTO))Total in-use vehicles: https://www.oica.net/production-statistics/(World Automobile Organization)Coal consumption: https://www.iea.org/(World Energy Organization)https://unstats.un.org/unsd/mbs/app/DataSearchTable.aspxhttps://data.wto.org/(World Trade Organization)Total amount of goods transported by road: https://d.qianzhan.com/xdata/list/x2HvyF-3.html (Qianzhan website; data from China's National Bureau of Statistics)UN Environment: https://wesr.unep.org/downloaderSocioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC): https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/gpw-v3-population-density-futureestimates/data-download
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BackgroundNinety-eight percent of documented cases of the zoonotic disease human monkeypox (MPX) were reported after 2001, with especially dramatic global spread in 2022. This longitudinal study aimed to assess spatiotemporal risk factors of MPX infection and predict global epidemiological trends.MethodTwenty-one potential risk factors were evaluated by correlation-based network analysis and multivariate regression. Country-level risk was assessed using a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model and a risk-factor-driven k-means clustering analysis.ResultsBetween historical cases and the 2022 outbreak, MPX infection risk factors changed from relatively simple [human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and population density] to multiple [human mobility, population of men who have sex with men, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection, and socioeconomic factors], with human mobility in the context of COVID-19 being especially key. The 141 included countries classified into three risk clusters: 24 high-risk countries mainly in West Europe and Northern America, 70 medium-risk countries mainly in Latin America and Asia, and 47 low-risk countries mainly in Africa and South Asia. The modified SEIR model predicted declining transmission rates, with basic reproduction numbers ranging 1.61–7.84 in the early stage and 0.70–4.13 in the current stage. The estimated cumulative cases in Northern and Latin America may overtake the number in Europe in autumn 2022.ConclusionsIn the current outbreak, risk factors for MPX infection have changed and expanded. Forecasts of epidemiological trends from our modified SEIR models suggest that Northern America and Latin America are at greater risk of MPX infection in the future.
Population estimates and 95% credible intervals for each country were derived from hierarchical combination of the best fitting jaguar occurrence and density models based on anthropogenic and environmental variables. Calculations were performed for the area of current jaguar range (Figs 1 and 6).
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Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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