The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 wiped out US$37 trillions across global financial markets, this value is equivalent to the combined GDPs of the United States and the European Union in 2014. The defining moment of this crisis was the failure of Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the October 2008 crash and the Asian Correction (March 2009). Had the Federal Reserve seen these crashes coming, they might have bailed out Lehman Brothers, and prevented the crashes altogether. In this paper, we show that some of these market crashes (like the Asian Correction) can be predicted, if we assume that a large number of adaptive traders employing competing trading strategies. As the number of adherents for some strategies grow, others decline in the constantly changing strategy space. When a strategy group grows into a giant component, trader actions become increasingly correlated and this is reflected in the stock price. The fragmentation of this giant component will leads to a market crash. In this paper, we also derived the mean-field market crash forecast equation based on a model of fusions and fissions in the trading strategy space. By fitting the continuous returns of 20 stocks traded in Singapore Exchange to the market crash forecast equation, we obtain crash predictions ranging from end October 2008 to mid-February 2009, with early warning four to six months prior to the crashes.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

ABSTRACT This article examines three models for pricing risky assets, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) from Sharpe and Lintner, the three factor model from Fama and French, and the four factor model from Carhart, in the Brazilian mark et for the period from 2002 to 2013. The data is composed of shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA) on a monthly basis, excluding financial sector shares, those with negative net equity, and those without consecutive monthly quotations. The proxy for market return is the Brazil Index (IBrX) and for riskless assets savings accounts are used. The 2008 crisis, an event of immense proportions and market losses, may have caused alterations in the relationship structure of risky assets, causing changes in pricing model results. Division of the total period into pre-crisis and post-crisis sub-periods is the strategy used in order to achieve the main objective: to analyze the effects of the crisis on asset pricing model results and their predictive power. It is verified that the factors considered are relevant in the Brazilian market in both periods, but between the periods, changes occur in the statistical relevance of sensitivities to the market premium and to the value factor. Moreover, the predictive ability of the pricing models is greater in the post-crisis period, especially for the multifactor models, with the four factor model able to improve predictions of portfolio returns in this period by up to 80%, when compared to the CAPM.

Asset-backed Securities Market Outlook 2032

The global asset-backed securities market size was USD 2,060.97 Million in 2023 and is likely to reach USD 4,431.66 Million by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 7.5% during 2024–2032. The market is driven by the increasing financial awareness among the consumers worldwide.



Increasing demand for higher yield in a low-interest-rate environment is expected to drive the asset-backed securities (ABS) market, during the forecast period. ABS are financial securities backed by a loan, lease, or receivables against assets other than real estate and mortgage-backed securities. They are a way to raise money for companies and a means of investment for investors, offering a diverse range of investment opportunities with varying risk and return profiles.

Growing awareness and understanding of ABS among investors are contributing to their popularity. These securities provide a way to invest in a wide range of income-generating assets, from credit card receivables and auto loans to student loans and other services. The ability to tailor ABS to meet specific investment objectives, such as risk tolerance and return requirements, makes them an attractive option for many investors.



Rising regulatory scrutiny and the need for transparent and robust structures are shaping the ABS market. The financial crisis of 2008 highlighted the risks associated with these securities, leading to significant changes in the market. Today, issuers are focusing on creating transparent, straightforward, and robust structures, which is expected to further boost investor confidence and drive the growth of the ABS market.

Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Asset-backed Securities Market

The use of artificial intelligence is likely to boost the asset-backed securities market. AI's "https://dataintelo.com/report/global-advanced-analytics-market" style="color:#0563c1; " target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US"

The unemployment rate in fiscal year 2204 rose to 3.9 percent. The unemployment rate of the United States which has been steadily decreasing since the 2008 financial crisis, spiked to 8.1 percent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual unemployment rate of the U.S. since 1990 can be found here. Falling unemployment The unemployment rate, or the part of the U.S. labor force that is without a job, fell again in 2022 after peaking at 8.1 percent in 2020 - a rate that has not been seen since the years following the 2008 financial crisis. The financial crash caused unemployment in the U.S. to soar from 4.6 percent in 2007 to 9.6 percent in 2010. Since 2010, the unemployment rate had been steadily falling, meaning that more and more people are finding work, whether that be through full-time employment or part-time employment. However, the affects of the COVID-19 pandemic created a spike in unemployment across the country. U.S. unemployment in comparison Compared to unemployment rates in the European Union, U.S. unemployment is relatively low. Greece was hit particularly hard by the 2008 financial crisis and faced a government debt crisis that sent the Greek economy into a tailspin. Due to this crisis, and the added impact of the pandemic, Greece still has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2024 amounted to around 29.18 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.

The gross domestic product (GDP) in current prices in Spain amounted to about 1.72 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024. Between 1980 and 2024, the GDP rose by approximately 1.49 trillion U.S. dollars, though the increase followed an uneven trajectory rather than a consistent upward trend. The GDP will steadily rise by around 478.98 billion U.S. dollars over the period from 2024 to 2030, reflecting a clear upward trend.This indicator describes the gross domestic product at current prices. The values are based upon the GDP in national currency converted to U.S. dollars using market exchange rates (yearly average). The GDP represents the total value of final goods and services produced during a year.

This statistic shows the average inflation rate in Indonesia from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the average inflation rate in Indonesia amounted to about 2.3 percent compared to the previous year. The global financial crisis and economic consequences The global economy underwent a drastic slump due to the global financial crisis in 2008, which caused a continued increase in the general level of prices of goods and services; the highest recorded global inflation of the past decade took place in 2008, when the global inflation rate increased by more than 6.4 percent in comparison with the previous year. As for Indonesia, the country's inflation rate amounted to around 9.8 percent in comparison to the previous year. The financial crisis also impacted the global unemployment rate. In 2009, the global unemployment rate jumped to around 6.2 percent, and it is not expected to recover to pre-crisis levels anytime soon. The financial crisis impact on the Indonesian economy was slightly more severe: In 2008, the unemployment rate in Indonesia was around 8.4 percent, much higher than the global unemployment rate for the same year. It has, however, now decreased significantly, even though it is still not below the global level, the country itself has reached lower levels than before the crisis. After the financial crisis, the Indonesian government implemented several economic reforms and increased exports in order to strengthen the economy. In 2011, Indonesia exported goods with a value of more than 200 billion U.S. dollars. The main export partners of Indonesia are Japan, China and Singapore. As a result of increased exports, the Indonesian economy was able to grow, making Indonesia one of the twenty nations in the world with the largest gross domestic product in 2015.

This statistic shows the growth of the real gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is an important indicator of the economic strength of a country. Real GDP is adjusted for price changes and is therefore regarded as a key indicator for economic growth. Spain's real GDP growth in 2043 was about 3.15 percent compared to the previous year. Spain's recovering economy Spain maintains a relatively important role as a member of the European Union as well as the World Trade Organization. Spain’s economy has been recognized as one of the most paramount in the world, however has been bogged down by multiple crisis’s over the past several years. Economical disasters such as the global financial crisis of 2008 and the euro debt crisis left the Spanish economy with long-term obstacles that the Spanish government has yet to overcome. One of the nation’s main economic struggles resides in unemployment, which was not only considerably high to start the decade but continued to grow to precarious volumes, most notably since 2008. Despite similar economical conflicts in neighboring countries, Spain suffers from one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe, only surpassed by Greece. The Spanish economy prospers from a low import-high export method which was initially implemented after the global financial crisis in order to help the country become more profitable. The country’s exports reached pre-crisis levels and saw continuous growth over the years, to the point that Spain became one of the world’s top exporters. Despite the economic slump due to the crisis, Spain now seems to recover slowly and forecasts are rather optimistic, in 2014, Spain was even among the countries with the largest GDP worldwide.

The Ibex 35 is Spain’s main stock market index, featuring 35 of the companies with the most liquid assets that are traded in the Madrid Stock Exchange or Bolsa de Madrid in Spanish. Out of the 35 entities, the real estate company Merlin Prop. had the expected highest dividend yield at the time of consideration, at 10.92 percent. The insurance firm Mapfre came in second, with an expected dividend yield of 8.9 percent.

The Ibex 35 development and performance

The Spanish benchmark stock index developed positively up to 2007, when due to the financial crisis the Ibex 35 rapidly fell to approximately 9,196 index points down from 15,182 the previous year. For this reason, the performance of the stock market index plummeted to 39.43 percent in 2008, which is the sharpest drop registered in recent years. As for the volatility of the Ibex 35 it decreased significantly from 2017 onwards after a decade of a highly volatile stock market. The Spanish market seems to be recovering from the impact caused by the 2008 financial crash, although it has not yet reached the levels prior to the recession.

Telefónica: leader in Spanish communication

Telefónica is one of the largest telecommunication companies in the world, offering mobile and fixed services, broadband network and pay-TV services as well as other digital solutions. Telefónica, Movistar, O2 and Vivo are Telefónica’s major brands. Telefónica is the corporate brand, Movistar targets the Spanish-speaking public, O2 is mainly used in Germany and the UK, and Vivo is the brand present in Brazil. Telefónica has a strong presence in its home country; Spain is the largest single source of revenue for the company, generating 12.4 billion euros in the country during 2020.

In 2018, Germany’s GDP peaked at around four billion U.S. dollars, the highest GDP the country has reported in decades. It is predicted to grow towards 5.57 billion by 2030. Germany has the fourth-largest GDP in the world, after the United States, China, and Japan. The national debt of Germany has steadily been falling since 2012 and is now about a quarter of the size of Japan’s and half that of the United States. Development of GDP per capita Gross domestic product per capita in Germany has been increasing since 2015 and experienced its last period of decline between the mid-nineties and early noughties. In 2001, GDP per capita was the lowest it had been since the early nineties, but more than doubled by the time of the financial crisis in 2008. GDP per capita fluctuated throughout the subsequent decade, before reaching around 48,000 U.S. dollars in 2018. Largest economic sectors The service sector generates the highest share of GDP in Germany at nearly 70 percent. Finance and telecommunications are a large part of the service sector, as well as tourism – including hospitality and accommodation. Roughly a quarter of GDP currently comes from the production industry, not including construction. Agriculture, fishing, and forestry make up less than one percent.

For most of the past two decades, China had the highest GDP growth of any of the BRICS countries, although it was overtaken by India in the mid-2010s, and India is predicted to have the highest growth in the 2020s. All five countries saw their GDP growth fall during the global financial crisis in 2008, and again during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020; China was the only economy that continued to grow during both crises, although India's economy also grew during the Great Recession. In 2014, Brazil experienced its own recession due to a combination of economic and political instability, while Russia also went into recession due to the drop in oil prices and the economic sanctions imposed following its annexation of Crimea.

The statistic shows the inflation rate in the Netherlands from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2024, the average inflation rate in the Netherlands was about 3.22 percent compared to the previous year. Economy of the Netherlands The Netherlands has an open economy, which implies that the country is highly dependent on foreign activities, such as imports and exports. The country’s economic policies and regulations have allowed for the country to highly benefit from strong international relations, however have increased the chances of economic struggles that correspond with the economic situations in other countries as well. The Netherlands is one of the main countries for foreign direct investments in Europe due to its strategic location, superior technological infrastructure as well as international business environment, a reputation that has all but grown more formidable over the years. Additionally, the country’s tourism industry makes up a rather large part of its GDP. Despite feeling the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 as well as the Eurozone crisis, many aspects of the Dutch economy are highly prosperous, most notably with its low inflation rates. Unemployment within the country, in spite of a slight increase over the past several years, has remained relatively low in comparison many other European countries that were equally as affected by recession.

This statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) in the Netherlands from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is an important indicator of the economic strength of a country. In 2024, the GDP in the Netherlands was around 1,227.17 billion U.S. dollars. Economy of the Netherlands As of 2014, the Netherlands have maintained a relatively stable gross domestic product (GDP), after experiencing a drop off in 2009. GDP per capita also followed a similar trend, reaching a decade high in 2008, before dwindling due to the global economic crisis. GDP per capita is useful when comparing economical situations of different countries and often illustrates each country’s productivity as well as the standard of living. In 2014, the Netherlands sufficient economic performance earned them a spot as one of the top 20 countries with the highest GDP per capita. From an employment standpoint, the Netherlands maintained a low unemployment rate, with its percentage hovering roughly around 5 percent or lower. In 2008, the Netherlands had its lowest unemployment rate over a 10 year span from 2004 to 2014; however like with many other countries around the world, the financial crisis had a negative affect on work opportunities around the country, causing considerable unemployment spikes in the following years.