Context

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to promote conditions that achieve the mandate set by the Congress — high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and moderate long-term interest rates. Interest rates set by the Fed directly influence the cost of borrowing money. Lower interest rates encourage more people to obtain a mortgage for a new home or to borrow money for an automobile or for home improvement. Lower rates encourage businesses to borrow funds to invest in expansion such as purchasing new equipment, updating plants, or hiring more workers. Higher interest rates restrain such borrowing by consumers and businesses.

Content

This dataset includes data on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate is determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate; the target rate transitioned to a target range with an upper and lower limit in December 2008. The real gross domestic product is calculated as the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the gross domestic product based on chained 2009 dollars. The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force. The inflation rate reflects the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index of products excluding food and energy.

Acknowledgements

The interest rate data was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal. The gross domestic product data was provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the unemployment and consumer price index data was provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inspiration

How does economic growth, unemployment, and inflation impact the Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions? How has the interest rate policy changed over time? Can you predict the Federal Reserve's next decision? Will the target range set in March 2017 be increased, decreased, or remain the same?

The interest rate set by the Federal Reserve is a crucial tool for promoting economic conditions that meet the mandate established by the United States Congress, which includes high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and the moderation of long-term interest rates. The interest rates determined by the Fed directly influence the cost of credit, making financing either more accessible or more restrictive. When interest rates are low, there is a greater incentive for consumers to purchase homes through mortgages, finance automobiles, or undertake home renovations. Additionally, businesses are encouraged to invest in expanding their operations, whether by purchasing new equipment, modernizing facilities, or hiring more workers. Conversely, higher interest rates tend to curb such activity, discouraging borrowing and slowing economic expansion.

The dataset analyzed contains information on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954, including the federal funds rate, which represents the percentage at which financial institutions trade reserves held at the Federal Reserve with each other in the interbank market overnight. This rate is determined by the market but is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the established target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate target, which has been defined within a range with upper and lower limits since December 2008.

Furthermore, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is calculated based on the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the economy, using chained 2009 dollars as a reference. The unemployment rate represents the seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Meanwhile, the inflation rate is determined by the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy prices for a more stable analysis of core inflation.

The interest rate data was sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal, while GDP information was provided by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and unemployment and inflation data were made available by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The analysis of this data helps to understand how economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Additionally, it allows for a study of the evolution of interest rate policies over time and raises the question of how predictable the Fed’s future decisions may be. Based on observed trends, it is possible to speculate whether the target range set in March 2017 will be maintained, lowered, or increased, considering the prevailing economic context and the challenges faced in conducting U.S. monetary policy.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Sweden was last recorded at 1.75 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Sweden Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This dataset provides values for INTEREST RATES reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

A dataset of mentions, growth rate, and total volume of the keyphrase 'High Interest Rates' over time.

Monthly and long-term United States Interest Rate data: historical series and analyst forecasts curated by FocusEconomics.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Interest is charged if payment is not received by the due date. Remember: if the due date falls on a weekend or holiday, your payment is due the next working day.

The Ministry of Finance also applies interest to amounts the ministry owes to individuals and corporations.

Tax interest is compounded daily and interest rates are reset every 3 months.

Note: Provincial land tax interest rates are not reset every three months. Provincial land tax interest rates are summarized on the "https://www.ontario.ca/document/provincial-land-tax">provincial land tax webpage.

Note: Interest rates do not apply to the Estate Administration Tax Act, 1998.

Current interest rates (October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025):

• 8% on taxes you owe to the ministry
• 2% on taxes you overpaid
• 5% on taxes or refunds you are eligible for as a result of a successful appeal or objection
• 6% on late International Fuel Tax Agreement payments
• 6% on International Fuel Tax Agreement refunds the ministry has not paid you within 90 days

You can download the dataset to view the historical tax interest rates.

Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST)

(1) Interest on tax you overpaid begins to accrue 40 business days after a complete NRST rebate or refund application is received by the Ministry of Finance to the date the rebate or refund is paid.

(2) On refunds you are eligible for as a result of a successful appeal or objection of a NRST refund/rebate disallowance, the interest rate is the same rate as though you had overpaid and will begin to accrue 40 business days after a complete NRST rebate or refund application is received by the Ministry of Finance to the date the rebate or refund is paid. Refunds as a result of a successful appeal or objection of NRST that was paid pursuant to a Notice of Assessment, interest will accrue at the higher appeals/objection rate, beginning to accrue from the date of payment to the date the rebate or refund is paid.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Monthly and long-term Argentina Interest Rate data: historical series and analyst forecasts curated by FocusEconomics.

The benchmark interest rate in Venezuela was last recorded at 58.66 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Venezuela Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

TraditionData’s Interest Rate Options service offers a comprehensive dataset of interest rate option premiums and implied volatilities across multiple currencies.

• Provides real-time data related to interest rate option premiums, selected Greeks, and implied volatility.
• Useful for financial services professionals for risk management, portfolio returns enhancement, and income generation.

For more details, visit Interest Rate Options Data.

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

30 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States decreased to 6.23 percent in November 26 from 6.26 percent in the previous week. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 30 Year Mortgage Rate.

An important indicator of the financial strength of a governmental entity is its bond rating. The bond rating is similar to the credit score of an individual – the higher the score, the better the ability to borrow money to finance purchases at a lower interest rate. Similarly, the higher the bond rating for a governmental entity, the more opportunities to borrow money for capital needs at lower interest rates. A high bond rating is an excellent indicator of the overall financial health of a government.This measure is obtained each year when the city seeks to issue bonds to finance its’ projects. As part of this process, bond ratings are always obtained from the rating agencies: Standard & Poor’s. Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investor Service. This page provides data for the Bond Rating performance measure. Bond ratings are a reflection of the financial strength of an entity. A high rating means an entity can issue bonds to finance capital projects at lower interest rates; lower rates result in less interest to be paid on the repayment of the bonds. Ultimately, this lowers the costs of our capital projects to our taxpayers. The performance measure dashboard is available at 5.04 Bond Rating. Additional Information Source: Standard & Poors, Moody's Investor Service, and Fitch Ratings are the major bond rating agencies in the United States and are widely used by governmental and non-governmental entities throughout the country.Contact: Jerry HartContact E-Mail: Jerry_Hart@tempe.govData Source Type: ExcelPreparation Method: ManualPublish Frequency: AnnuallyPublish Method: ManualData Dictionary

Index Time Series for WisdomTree Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond Fund. The frequency of the observation is daily. Moving average series are also typically included. Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the fund"s total assets (exclusive of collateral held from securities lending) will be invested in the constituent securities of the index and investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the economic characteristics of such constituent securities. The index is comprised of long and short positions. The fund is non-diversified.

The 3-months interest rate is a representative short-term interest rate series for the domestic money market. From January 1999, the euro area rate is the 3-month "EURo InterBank Offered Rate" (EURIBOR) EURIBOR is the benchmark rate of the large euro money market that has emerged since 1999. It is the rate at which euro InterBank term deposits are offered by one prime bank to another prime bank. The contributors to EURIBOR are the banks with the highest volume of business in the euro area money markets. The panel of banks consists of banks from EU countries participating in the euro from the outset, banks from EU countries not participating in the euro from the outset, and large international banks from non-EU countries but with important euro area operations. Monthly data are calculated as averages of daily values. Data are presented in raw form. Source: European Central Bank (ECB)

Current Deposit & Loan Rates - These rates are compiled from information reported by the commercial banks to the Economic Information and Publications Department. The rates of interest being offered on time deposits relate to amounts J$100,000 and over. The savings rate represents an average range of rates offered on all categories of savings deposits. The average lending rate is a simple average of the range of interest rates offered on demand loans only.

Domestic Interest Rates (Commercial Banks Weighted Deposit Rates) - Compiled from monthly reports submitted by the commercial banks. These rates are based on actual volumes of all local currency deposits and loans extended at non zero rates of interest.

Domestic Interest Rates (Commercial Banks Weighted Time Deposit Rates) - Compiled from monthly reports submitted by the commercial banks. These rates are based on actual volumes of all local currency deposits and loans extended at non zero rates of interest.

Domestic Interest Rates (Commercial Banks Weighted Loan Rates) - Compiled from monthly reports submitted by the commercial banks. These rates are based on actual volumes of all local currency deposits and loans extended at non zero rates of interest.

Foreign Currency Interest Rates (Commercial Banks Weighted Time Deposit Rates) - Compiled from monthly reports submitted by the commercial banks. These rates are based on actual volumes of all foreign currency deposits and loans extended at non zero rates of interest.

Foreign Currency Interest Rates (Commercial Banks Weighted Loan Rates) - Compiled from monthly reports submitted by the commercial banks. These rates are based on actual volumes of all foreign currency deposits and loans extended at non zero rates of interest.

Comparative Bank Rates & Treasury Bill Rates - The average discount rate on three-month Treasury Bills or six month Treasury Bills in the case of Jamaica. The average discount rates for respective countries are sourced from the International Financial Statistics, an International Monetary Fund publication.

Private Money Markets Interest Rates

BOJ Interest Rates On Lending Facilities For DTI's - These interest rates fall under the Enhanced Liquidity Management Framework (ELMF), which was implemented by the Bank in 2013, for DTI.

Source: http://boj.org.jm/statistics/econdata/stats_list.php?type=5