The Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Density Grid, Future EstimatesFuture Estimates consists of estimates of human population for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 by 2.5 arc-minute grid cells. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing more than 300,000 national and sub-national administrative Units, is used to assign population values to grid cells. The future estimate population values are extrapolated based on a combination of subnational growth rates from census dates and national growth rates from United Nations statistics. All of the grids have been adjusted to match United Nations national level population estimates. The population density grids are derived by dividing the population count grids by the land area grid and represent persons per square kilometer. The grids are available in various GIS-compatible data formats and geographic extents (global, continent [Antarctica not included], and country levels). GPWv3 is produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in collaboration with Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT).

Until 2100, the world's population is expected to be ageing. Whereas people over 60 years made up less than 13 percent of the world's population in 2024, this share is estimated to reach 28.8 percent in 2100. On the other hand, the share of people between zero and 14 years was expected to decrease by almost ten percentage points over the same period.

Global Population of the World (GPW) translates census population data to a latitude-longitude grid so that population data may be used in cross-disciplinary studies. There are three data files with this data set for the reference years 1990 and 1995. Over 127,000 administrative units and population counts were collected and integrated from various sources to create the gridded data. In brief, GPW was created using the following steps: * Population data were estimated for the product reference years, 1990 and 1995, either by the data source or by interpolating or extrapolating the given estimates for other years. * Additional population estimates were created by adjusting the source population data to match UN national population estimates for the reference years. * Borders and coastlines of the spatial data were matched to the Digital Chart of the World where appropriate and lakes from the Digital Chart of the World were added. * The resulting data were then transformed into grids of UN-adjusted and unadjusted population counts for the reference years. * Grids containing the area of administrative boundary data in each cell (net of lakes) were created and used with the count grids to produce population densities.As with any global data set based on multiple data sources, the spatial and attribute precision of GPW is variable. The level of detail and accuracy, both in time and space, vary among the countries for which data were obtained.

The Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11 consists of estimates of human population density (number of persons per square kilometer) based on counts consistent with national censuses and population registers, for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing approximately 13.5 million national and sub-national administrative units, was used to assign population counts to 30 arc-second grid cells. The population density rasters were created by dividing the population count raster for a given target year by the land area raster. The data files were produced as global rasters at 30 arc-second (~1 km at the equator) resolution.

Purpose: To provide estimates of population density for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, based on counts consistent with national censuses and population registers, as raster data to facilitate data integration.

Recommended Citation(s)*: Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/H49C6VHW. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR.

The statistic shows the global population as of mid-2022, sorted by age. In mid-2022, approximately two thirds of the global population were aged between 15 and 64 years.

Mogadishu in Somalia led the ranking of cities with the highest population density in 2023, with ****** residents per square kilometer. When it comes to countries, Monaco is the most densely populated state worldwide.

This layer contains WorldPop's 100m resolution annual estimates of population density from the year 2000 to 2020. Usage notes: This layer is configured to be viewed only at a scale range for large-scale maps, i.e., zoomed into small areas of the world. Because the underlying data for this layer is relatively large and because raster pyramids cannot accurately represent aggregated population density, there are no pyramids. Thus, this layer may at times require 10 to 15 seconds to draw. We recommend using this layer in conjunction with WorldPop's 1-km resolution Population Density layer to create web maps that allow users to pan and zoom to wider areas; this web map contains an example of this combination. The population estimates in this layer are derived WorldPop's total population data, which use a Top-down unconstrained method which estimates the total population for each cell with a Random Forest-based dasymetric model (Stevens, F. R., Gaughan, A. E., Linard, C., & Tatem, A. J. (2015). Disaggregating census data for population mapping using random forests with remotely-sensed and ancillary data. PloS one, 10(2), e0107042) and converts these values to population density by dividing the number of people in each pixel by the pixel surface area. This diagram visually describes this model that uses known populated locations to analyze imagery to find similarly populated locations. The DOI for the original WorldPop.org total population population data is 10.5258/SOTON/WP00645.Recommended Citation: WorldPop (www.worldpop.org - School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton; Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of Louisville; Departement de Geographie, Universite de Namur) and Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University (2018). Global High Resolution Population Denominators Project - Funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Accessed from https://worldpop.arcgis.com/arcgis/rest/services/WorldPop_Total_Population_100m/ImageServer, which was acquired from WorldPop in December 2021.

Population density per pixel at 100 metre resolution. WorldPop provides estimates of numbers of people residing in each 100x100m grid cell for every low and middle income country. Through ingegrating cencus, survey, satellite and GIS datasets in a flexible machine-learning framework, high resolution maps of population counts and densities for 2000-2020 are produced, along with accompanying metadata. DATASET: Alpha version 2010 and 2015 estimates of numbers of people per grid square, with national totals adjusted to match UN population division estimates (http://esa.un.org/wpp/) and remaining unadjusted. REGION: Africa SPATIAL RESOLUTION: 0.000833333 decimal degrees (approx 100m at the equator) PROJECTION: Geographic, WGS84 UNITS: Estimated persons per grid square MAPPING APPROACH: Land cover based, as described in: Linard, C., Gilbert, M., Snow, R.W., Noor, A.M. and Tatem, A.J., 2012, Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010, PLoS ONE, 7(2): e31743. FORMAT: Geotiff (zipped using 7-zip (open access tool): www.7-zip.org) FILENAMES: Example - AGO10adjv4.tif = Angola (AGO) population count map for 2010 (10) adjusted to match UN national estimates (adj), version 4 (v4). Population maps are updated to new versions when improved census or other input data become available. Taiwan data available from WorldPop here. Data and Resources TIFF Taiwan - Population density (2015) DATASET: Alpha version 2010 and 2015 estimates of numbers of people per grid...

Estimates of human population for the year 2015 by 2.5 arc-minute grid cells. 2015 global population density from CIESIN Gridded Population of the World version 4. Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University. 2016. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). http://dx.doi.org/10.7927/H4NP22DQ Accessed 5 April 2017.

Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) Population Density, Revision 10 consists of estimates of human population density (number of persons per square kilometer) based on counts consistent with national censuses and population registers, for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. A proportional allocation gridding algorithm, utilizing approximately 13.5 million national and sub-national administrative units, was used to assign population counts to 30 arc-second grid cells. The population density rasters were created by dividing the population count raster for a given target year by the land area raster. The data files were produced as global rasters at 30 arc-second (~1 km at the equator) resolution. To enable faster global processing, and in support of research communities, the 30 arc-second count data were aggregated to 2.5 arc-minute, 15 arc-minute, 30 arc-minute and 1 degree resolutions to produce density rasters at these resolutions.For more information, visit the GPW homepage here: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v4

WorldPop produces different types of gridded population count datasets, depending on the methods used and end application. Please make sure you have read our Mapping Populations overview page before choosing and downloading a dataset.

Datasets are available to download in Geotiff and ASCII XYZ format at a resolution of 30 arc-seconds (approximately 1km at the equator)

-Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020: Population density datasets for all countries of the World for each year 2000-2020 – derived from the corresponding Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020 population count datasets by dividing the number of people in each pixel by the pixel surface area. These are produced using the unconstrained top-down modelling method.
-Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020 UN adjusted: Population density datasets for all countries of the World for each year 2000-2020 – derived from the corresponding Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020 population UN adjusted count datasets by dividing the number of people in each pixel, adjusted to match the country total from the official United Nations population estimates (UN 2019), by the pixel surface area. These are produced using the unconstrained top-down modelling method.

Data for earlier dates is available directly from WorldPop.

WorldPop (www.worldpop.org - School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton; Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of Louisville; Departement de Geographie, Universite de Namur) and Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University (2018). Global High Resolution Population Denominators Project - Funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1134076). https://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/WP00674

Contained within the 5th Edition (1978 to 1995) of the National Atlas of Canada is a map that shows the density of population in continuously settled area of Canada using ten density classes based on 1976 Census data.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1805, and reached eight billion in 2022, and will peak at almost 10.2 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two-thirds of the world's population lives in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a few years later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

Population density per pixel at 100 metre resolution. WorldPop provides estimates of numbers of people residing in each 100x100m grid cell for every low and middle income country. Through ingegrating cencus, survey, satellite and GIS datasets in a flexible machine-learning framework, high resolution maps of population counts and densities for 2000-2020 are produced, along with accompanying metadata. DATASET: Alpha version 2010 and 2015 estimates of numbers of people per grid square, with national totals adjusted to match UN population division estimates (http://esa.un.org/wpp/) and remaining unadjusted. REGION: Africa SPATIAL RESOLUTION: 0.000833333 decimal degrees (approx 100m at the equator) PROJECTION: Geographic, WGS84 UNITS: Estimated persons per grid square MAPPING APPROACH: Land cover based, as described in: Linard, C., Gilbert, M., Snow, R.W., Noor, A.M. and Tatem, A.J., 2012, Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010, PLoS ONE, 7(2): e31743. FORMAT: Geotiff (zipped using 7-zip (open access tool): www.7-zip.org) FILENAMES: Example - AGO10adjv4.tif = Angola (AGO) population count map for 2010 (10) adjusted to match UN national estimates (adj), version 4 (v4). Population maps are updated to new versions when improved census or other input data become available. Rwanda data available from WorldPop here.

The Global Human Footprint Data Set of the Last of the Wild Project, Version 2, 2005 (LWP-2) presents the Human Influence Index (HII) normalized by biome and realm. The HII is a global dataset of 1-kilometer grid cells created from nine global data layers covering human population pressure (population density population settlements), human land use and infrastructure (built up areas, nighttime lights, land use/land cover), and human access (coastlines, roads, railroads, navigable rivers). The data set can be downloaded in Band Interleaf (BIL) format. The data set was produced by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). The purpose is to provide an upgrade to existing maps of wild areas, which in turn can be used in modeling efforts, wildlife conservation planning, natural resource management, policy-making, biodiversity studies and human-environment interactions.

This map shows population density of the United States. Areas in darker magenta have much higher population per square mile than areas in orange or yellow. Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics. The map's layers contain total population counts by sex, age, and race groups for Nation, State, County, Census Tract, and Block Group in the United States and Puerto Rico. From the Census:"Population density allows for broad comparison of settlement intensity across geographic areas. In the U.S., population density is typically expressed as the number of people per square mile of land area. The U.S. value is calculated by dividing the total U.S. population (316 million in 2013) by the total U.S. land area (3.5 million square miles).When comparing population density values for different geographic areas, then, it is helpful to keep in mind that the values are most useful for small areas, such as neighborhoods. For larger areas (especially at the state or country scale), overall population density values are less likely to provide a meaningful measure of the density levels at which people actually live, but can be useful for comparing settlement intensity across geographies of similar scale." SourceAbout the dataYou can use this map as is and you can also modify it to use other attributes included in its layers. This map's layers contain total population counts by sex, age, and race groups data from the 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics. This is shown by Nation, State, County, Census Tract, Block Group boundaries. Each geography layer contains a common set of Census counts based on available attributes from the U.S. Census Bureau. There are also additional calculated attributes related to this topic, which can be mapped or used within analysis.Vintage of boundaries and attributes: 2020 Demographic and Housing Characteristics Table(s): P1, H1, H3, P2, P3, P5, P12, P13, P17, PCT12 (Not all lines of these DHC tables are available in this feature layer.)Data downloaded from: U.S. Census Bureau’s data.census.gov siteDate the Data was Downloaded: May 25, 2023Geography Levels included: Nation, State, County, Census Tract, Block GroupNational Figures: included in Nation layer The United States Census Bureau Demographic and Housing Characteristics: 2020 Census Results 2020 Census Data Quality Geography & 2020 Census Technical Documentation Data Table Guide: includes the final list of tables, lowest level of geography by table and table shells for the Demographic Profile and Demographic and Housing Characteristics.News & Updates This map is ready to be used in ArcGIS Pro, ArcGIS Online and its configurable apps, Story Maps, dashboards, Notebooks, Python, custom apps, and mobile apps. Data can also be exported for offline workflows. Please cite the U.S. Census Bureau when using this data. Data Processing Notes: These 2020 Census boundaries come from the US Census TIGER geodatabases. These are Census boundaries with water and/or coastlines erased for cartographic and mapping purposes. For Census tracts and block groups, the water cutouts are derived from a subset of the 2020 Areal Hydrography boundaries offered by TIGER. Water bodies and rivers which are 50 million square meters or larger (mid to large sized water bodies) are erased from the tract and block group boundaries, as well as additional important features. For state and county boundaries, the water and coastlines are derived from the coastlines of the 2020 500k TIGER Cartographic Boundary Shapefiles. These are erased to more accurately portray the coastlines and Great Lakes. The original AWATER and ALAND fields are unchanged and available as attributes within the data table (units are square meters).  The layer contains all US states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico. Census tracts with no population that occur in areas of water, such as oceans, are removed from this data service (Census Tracts beginning with 99). Block groups that fall within the same criteria (Block Group denoted as 0 with no area land) have also been removed.Percentages and derived counts, are calculated values (that can be identified by the "_calc_" stub in the field name). Field alias names were created based on the Table Shells file available from the Data Table Guide for the Demographic Profile and Demographic and Housing Characteristics. Not all lines of all tables listed above are included in this layer. Duplicative counts were dropped. For example, P0030001 was dropped, as it is duplicative of P0010001.To protect the privacy and confidentiality of respondents, their data has been protected using differential privacy techniques by the U.S. Census Bureau.

In 2023, there were around ***** inhabitants per square kilometer living in Singapore. In comparison, there were approximately two inhabitants per square kilometer living in Mongolia that year.

Population density per pixel at 100 metre resolution. WorldPop provides estimates of numbers of people residing in each 100x100m grid cell for every low and middle income country. Through ingegrating cencus, survey, satellite and GIS datasets in a flexible machine-learning framework, high resolution maps of population counts and densities for 2000-2020 are produced, along with accompanying metadata. DATASET: Alpha version 2010 and 2015 estimates of numbers of people per grid square, with national totals adjusted to match UN population division estimates (http://esa.un.org/wpp/) and remaining unadjusted. REGION: Africa SPATIAL RESOLUTION: 0.000833333 decimal degrees (approx 100m at the equator) PROJECTION: Geographic, WGS84 UNITS: Estimated persons per grid square MAPPING APPROACH: Land cover based, as described in: Linard, C., Gilbert, M., Snow, R.W., Noor, A.M. and Tatem, A.J., 2012, Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010, PLoS ONE, 7(2): e31743. FORMAT: Geotiff (zipped using 7-zip (open access tool): www.7-zip.org) FILENAMES: Example - AGO10adjv4.tif = Angola (AGO) population count map for 2010 (10) adjusted to match UN national estimates (adj), version 4 (v4). Population maps are updated to new versions when improved census or other input data become available. Pakistan data available from WorldPop here.

WorldPop produces different types of gridded population count datasets, depending on the methods used and end application. Please make sure you have read our Mapping Populations overview page before choosing and downloading a dataset. Datasets are available to download in Geotiff and ASCII XYZ format at a resolution of 30 arc-seconds (approximately 1km at the equator) -Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020: Population density datasets for all countries of the World for each year 2000-2020 – derived from the corresponding Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020 population count datasets by dividing the number of people in each pixel by the pixel surface area. These are produced using the unconstrained top-down modelling method. -Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020 UN adjusted: Population density datasets for all countries of the World for each year 2000-2020 – derived from the corresponding Unconstrained individual countries 2000-2020 population UN adjusted count datasets by dividing the number of people in each pixel, adjusted to match the country total from the official United Nations population estimates (UN 2019), by the pixel surface area. These are produced using the unconstrained top-down modelling method. Data for earlier dates is available directly from WorldPop. WorldPop (www.worldpop.org - School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton; Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of Louisville; Departement de Geographie, Universite de Namur) and Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University (2018). Global High Resolution Population Denominators Project - Funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1134076). https://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/WP00674

Context

This is a dataset of the most highly populated city (if applicable) in a form easy to join with the COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) dataset. You can see how to use it in this kernel

Content

There are four columns. The first two correspond to the columns from the original COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) dataset. The other two is the highest population density, at city level, for the given country/state. Note that some countries are very small and in those cases the population density reflects the entire country. Since the original dataset has a few cruise ships as well, I've added them there.

Acknowledgements

Thanks a lot to Kaggle for this competition that gave me the opportunity to look closely at some data and understand this problem better.

Inspiration

Summary: I believe that the square root of the population density should relate to the logistic growth factor of the SIR model. I think the SEIR model isn't applicable due to any intervention being too late for a fast-spreading virus like this, especially in places with dense populations.

After playing with the data provided in COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 1) (and everything else online or media) a bit, one thing becomes clear. They have nothing to do with epidemiology. They reflect sociopolitical characteristics of a country/state and, more specifically, the reactivity and attitude towards testing.

The testing method used (PCR tests) means that what we measure could potentially be a proxy for the number of people infected during the last 3 weeks, i.e the growth (with lag). It's not how many people have been infected and recovered. Antibody or serology tests would measure that, and by using them, we could go back to normality faster... but those will arrive too late. Way earlier, China will have experimentally shown that it's safe to go back to normal as soon as your number of newly infected per day is close to zero.

https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F197482%2F429e0fdd7f1ce86eba882857ac7a735e%2Fcovid-summary.png?generation=1585072438685236&alt=media" alt="">

My view, as a person living in NYC, about this virus, is that by the time governments react to media pressure, to lockdown or even test, it's too late. In dense areas, everyone susceptible has already amble opportunities to be infected. Especially for a virus with 5-14 days lag between infections and symptoms, a period during which hosts spread it all over on subway, the conditions are hopeless. Active populations have already been exposed, mostly asymptomatic and recovered. Sensitive/older populations are more self-isolated/careful in affluent societies (maybe this isn't the case in North Italy). As the virus finishes exploring the active population, it starts penetrating the more isolated ones. At this point in time, the first fatalities happen. Then testing starts. Then the media and the lockdown. Lockdown seems overly effective because it coincides with the tail of the disease spread. It helps slow down the virus exploring the long-tail of sensitive population, and we should all contribute by doing it, but it doesn't cause the end of the disease. If it did, then as soon as people were back in the streets (see China), there would be repeated outbreaks.

Smart politicians will test a lot because it will make their condition look worse. It helps them demand more resources. At the same time, they will have a low rate of fatalities due to large denominator. They can take credit for managing well a disproportionally major crisis - in contrast to people who didn't test.

We were lucky this time. We, Westerners, have woken up to the potential of a pandemic. I'm sure we will give further resources for prevention. Additionally, we will be more open-minded, helping politicians to have more direct responses. We will also require them to be more responsible in their messages and reactions.