Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.
The earliest point where scientists can make reasonable estimates for the population of global regions is around 10,000 years before the Common Era (or 12,000 years ago). Estimates suggest that Asia has consistently been the most populated continent, and the least populated continent has generally been Oceania (although it was more heavily populated than areas such as North America in very early years). Population growth was very slow, but an increase can be observed between most of the given time periods. There were, however, dips in population due to pandemics, the most notable of these being the impact of plague in Eurasia in the 14th century, and the impact of European contact with the indigenous populations of the Americas after 1492, where it took almost four centuries for the population of Latin America to return to its pre-1500 level. The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, which also coincided with a spike in population growth, due to the onset of the demographic transition. This wave of growth first spread across the most industrially developed countries in the 19th century, and the correlation between demographic development and industrial or economic maturity continued until today, with Africa being the final major region to begin its transition in the late-1900s.
The region of present-day China has historically been the most populous region in the world; however, its population development has fluctuated throughout history. In 2022, China was overtaken as the most populous country in the world, and current projections suggest its population is heading for a rapid decline in the coming decades. Transitions of power lead to mortality The source suggests that conflict, and the diseases brought with it, were the major obstacles to population growth throughout most of the Common Era, particularly during transitions of power between various dynasties and rulers. It estimates that the total population fell by approximately 30 million people during the 14th century due to the impact of Mongol invasions, which inflicted heavy losses on the northern population through conflict, enslavement, food instability, and the introduction of bubonic plague. Between 1850 and 1870, the total population fell once more, by more than 50 million people, through further conflict, famine and disease; the most notable of these was the Taiping Rebellion, although the Miao an Panthay Rebellions, and the Dungan Revolt, also had large death tolls. The third plague pandemic also originated in Yunnan in 1855, which killed approximately two million people in China. 20th and 21st centuries There were additional conflicts at the turn of the 20th century, which had significant geopolitical consequences for China, but did not result in the same high levels of mortality seen previously. It was not until the overlapping Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) and Second World War (1937-1945) where the death tolls reached approximately 10 and 20 million respectively. Additionally, as China attempted to industrialize during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), economic and agricultural mismanagement resulted in the deaths of tens of millions (possibly as many as 55 million) in less than four years, during the Great Chinese Famine. This mortality is not observable on the given dataset, due to the rapidity of China's demographic transition over the entire period; this saw improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and infrastructure result in sweeping changes across the population. The early 2020s marked some significant milestones in China's demographics, where it was overtaken by India as the world's most populous country, and its population also went into decline. Current projections suggest that China is heading for a "demographic disaster", as its rapidly aging population is placing significant burdens on China's economy, government, and society. In stark contrast to the restrictive "one-child policy" of the past, the government has introduced a series of pro-fertility incentives for couples to have larger families, although the impact of these policies are yet to materialize. If these current projections come true, then China's population may be around half its current size by the end of the century.
It is estimated that the largest cities in Western Europe in 1330 were Paris and Granada. At this time, Paris was the seat of power in northern France, while Granada had become the largest multicultural city in southern Spain, controlled by the Muslim, Nasrid Kingdom during Spain's Reconquista period. The next three largest cities were Venice, Genoa and Milan, all in northern Italy, renowned as important trading cities during the middle ages. In October 1347, the first wave of the Black Death had arrived in Sicily and then began spreading throughout Europe, decimating the population.
The 2018 Dhaka Low Income Area Gender, Inclusion, and Poverty (DIGNITY) survey attempts to fill in the data and knowledge gaps on women's economic empowerment in urban areas, specifically the factors that constrain women in slums and low-income neighborhoods from engaging in the labor market and supplying their labor to wage earning or self-employment. While an array of national-level datasets has collected a wide spectrum of information, they rarely comprise all of the information needed to study the drivers of Female Labor Force Participation (FLFP). This data gap is being filled by the primary data collection of the specialized DIGNITY survey; it is representative of poor urban areas and is specifically designed to address these limitations. The DIGNITY survey collected information from 1,300 urban households living in poor areas of Dhaka in 2018 on a range of issues that affect FLFP as identified through the literature. These range from household composition and demographic characteristics to socioeconomic characteristics such as detailed employment history and income (including locational data and travel details); and from technical and educational attributes to issues of time use, migration history, and attitudes and perceptions.
The DIGNITY survey was designed to shed light on poverty, economic empowerment, and livelihood in urban areas of Bangladesh. It has two main modules: the traditional household module (in which the head of household is interviewed on basic information about the household); and the individual module, in which two respondents from each household are interviewed individually. In the second module, two persons - one male and one female from each household, usually the main couple, are selected for the interview. The survey team deployed one male and one female interviewer for each household, so that the gender of the interviewers matched that of the respondents. Collecting economic data directly from a female and male household member, rather than just the head of the household (who tend to be men in most cases), was a key feature of the DIGNITY survey.
The DIGNITY survey is representative of low-income areas and slums of the Dhaka City Corporations (North and South, from here on referred to as Dhaka CCs), and an additional low-income site from the Greater Dhaka Statistical Metropolitan Area (SMA).
Sample survey data [ssd]
The sampling procedure followed a two-stage stratification design. The major features include the following steps (they are discussed in more detail in a copy of the study's report and the sampling document located in "External Resources"):
FIRST STAGE: Selection of the PSUs
Low-income primary sampling units (PSUs) were defined as nonslum census enumeration areas (EAs), in which the small-sample area estimate of the poverty rate is higher than 8 percent (using the 2011 Bangladesh Poverty Map). The sampling frame for these low-income areas in the Dhaka City Corporations (CCs) and Greater Dhaka is based on the population census of 2011. For the Dhaka CCs, all low-income census EAs formed the sampling frame. In the Greater Dhaka area, the frame was formed by all low-income census EAs in specific thanas (i.e. administrative unit in Bangladesh) where World Bank project were located.
Three strata were used for sampling the low-income EAs. These strata were defined based on the poverty head-count ratios. The first stratum encompasses EAs with a poverty headcount ratio between 8 and 10 percent; the second stratum between 11 and 14 percent; and the third stratum, those exceeding 15 percent.
Slums were defined as informal settlements that were listed in the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics' slum census from 2013/14. This census was used as sampling frame of the slum areas. Only slums in the Dhaka City Corporations are included. Again, three strata were used to sample the slums. This time the strata were based on the size of the slums. The first stratum comprises slums of 50 to 75 households; the second 76 to 99 households; and the third, 100 or more households. Small slums with fewer than 50 households were not included in the sampling frame. Very small slums were included in the low-income neighborhood selection if they are in a low-income area.
Altogether, the DIGNITY survey collected data from 67 PSUs.
SECOND STAGE: Selection of the Households
In each sampled PSU a complete listing of households was done to form the frame for the second stage of sampling: the selection of households. When the number of households in a PSU was very large, smaller sections of the neighborhood were identified, and one section was randomly selected to be listed. The listing data collected information on the demographics of the household to determine whether a household fell into one of the three categories that were used to stratify the household sample:
i) households with both working-age male and female members; ii) households with only a working-age female; iii) households with only a working-age male.
Households were selected from each stratum with the predetermined ratio of 16:3:1. In some cases there were not enough households in categories (ii) and (iii) to stick to this ratio; in this case all of the households in the category were sampled, and additional households were selected from the first category to bring the total number of households sampled in each PSU to 20.
The total sample consisted of 1,300 households (2,378 individuals).
The sampling for 1300 households was planned after the listing exercise. During the field work, about 115 households (8.8 percent) could not be interviewed due to household refusal or absence. These households were replaced with reserved households in the sample.
Computer Assisted Personal Interview [capi]
The questionnaires for the survey were developed by the World Bank, with assistance from the survey firm, DATA. Comments were incorporated following the pilot tests and practice session/pretest.
Collected data was entered into a computer by using the customized MS Access data input software developed by Data Analysis and Technical Assistance (DATA). Once data entry was completed, two different techniques were employed to check consistency and validity of data as follows:
In 1500, the largest city was Paris, with an estimated 225 thousand inhabitants, almost double the population of the second-largest city, Naples. As in 1330, Venice and Milan remain the third and fourth largest cities in Western Europe, however Genoa's population almost halved from 1330 until 1500, as it was struck heavily by the bubonic plague in the mid-1300s. In lists prior to this, the largest cities were generally in Spain and Italy, however, as time progressed, the largest populations could be found more often in Italy and France. The year 1500 is around the beginning of what we now consider modern history, a time that saw the birth of many European empires and inter-continental globalization.
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Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.