Of all the stocks included in the S&P 500 index, those belonging to companies heavily reliant on tourism suffered some of - if not - the worst losses over 2020. Cruise ship operators Carnival Corporation and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were two the of the three biggest losers of 2020, while the share price of all three major full-service U.S. airlines - American, Delta and United - also lost significant value during the year. This is directly connected to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which caused the global tourism industry to grind to a halt as the free movement of people between (and often within) countries was curtailed by many governments. The effect on tourism was also in part to blame for the collapse in energy stocks, with products like airline fuel seeing a collapse of demand in 2020.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index dropped around ***** points in the four weeks from February 12 to March 11, 2020, but has since recovered and peaked at ********* points as of November 24, 2024. In February 2020 - just prior to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the DJIA index stood at a little over ****** points. U.S. markets suffer as virus spreads The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a turbulent period for stock markets – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also recorded dramatic drops. At the start of February, some analysts remained optimistic that the outbreak would ease. However, the increased spread of the virus started to hit investor confidence, prompting a record plunge in the stock markets. The Dow dropped by more than ***** points in the week from February 21 to February 28, which was a fall of **** percent – its worst percentage loss in a week since October 2008. Stock markets offer valuable economic insights The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a stock market index that monitors the share prices of the 30 largest companies in the United States. By studying the performance of the listed companies, analysts can gauge the strength of the domestic economy. If investors are confident in a company’s future, they will buy its stocks. The uncertainty of the coronavirus sparked fears of an economic crisis, and many traders decided that investment during the pandemic was too risky.

Between March 2020 and August 2024, four of the biggest one-day losses on the Nasdaq Composite Index occurred in the first half of 2020. The worst day was March 16, 2020, when the index fell by ***** percent. The ** worst days in terms of losses were spread across 2020 and 2022. This index includes the Big Five tech giants - Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Microsoft - as well as many other technology-focused companies.

On March 1st 2020, the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BET) index registered a drop of -9.67 percent largely influenced by the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the country. By the 15th of March 2020, the Bucharest Stock Exchange already reached a drop of -17.6 percent on the stock market, being one of the lowest drops since the financial crisis in 2007. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Following the announcement of sweeping tariffs on all countries by Donald Trump, ************* became the day with the third-highest point losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in history. Worse than the loss experienced on that day were only the losses that occurred following the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted significant points losses due to the global impact of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. With stocks falling sharply, the Dow recorded its worst single-day points drop ever, plunging ***** points – nearly ** percent – on **************.

As the coronavirus spreads around the world, the impact on the Polish stock exchange is increasing. As of 4 March, the WIG20 index was at the level of 1,860.95 points. Since then, the index has been systematically decreasing, and it reached the level of 1,305.73 points on 12 March. The reason for the falls on the stock exchange is a coronavirus (COVID-19). Fear of the epidemic has been visible in the markets for three weeks. As of 27 March, WIG20 has lost over 31 percent since the beginning of the year. Most probably, the first quarter of 2020 will be the worst in the history of the index. Even worse than the end of the memorable 2008, when the financial crisis broke out. On June 29, WIG20 index reached the closing value of 1,769.47, which is a decrease of 17.70 percent compared to the beginning of 2020.

As of November 14, 2021, all S&P 500 sector indices had recovered to levels above those of January 2020, prior to full economic effects of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic taking hold. However, different sectors recovered at different rates to sit at widely different levels above their pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that the effect of the coronavirus on financial markets in the United States is directly affected by how the virus has impacted various parts of the underlying economy. Which industry performed the best during the coronavirus pandemic? Companies operating in the information technology (IT) sector have been the clear winners from the pandemic, with the IT S&P 500 sector index sitting at almost ** percent above early 2020 levels as of November 2021. This is perhaps not surprising given this industry includes some of the companies who benefitted the most from the pandemic such as ************** and *******. The reason for these companies’ success is clear – as shops were shuttered and social gatherings heavily restricted due to the pandemic, online services such shopping and video streaming were in high demand. The success of the IT sector is also reflected in the performance of global share markets during the coronavirus pandemic, with tech-heavy NASDAQ being the best performing major market worldwide. Which industry performed the worst during the pandemic? Conversely, energy companies fared the worst during the pandemic, with the S&P 500 sector index value sitting below its early 2020 value as late as July 2021. Since then it has somewhat recovered, and was around ** percent above January 2020 levels as of October 2021. This reflects the fact that many oil companies were among the share prices suffering the largest declines over 2020. A primary driver for this was falling demand for fuel in line with the reduction in tourism and commuting caused by lockdowns all over the world. However, as increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates throughout 2021 led to lockdowns being lifted and global tourism reopening, demand has again risen - reflected by the recent increase in the S&P 500 energy index.

Italy's main stock market index, the IT40, rose to 43038 points on August 22, 2025, gaining 0.06% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 5.75% and is up 27.90% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Italy. Italy Stock Market Index (IT40) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

Euro Area's main stock market index, the EU50, rose to 5483 points on August 22, 2025, gaining 0.38% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 2.60% and is up 11.70% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Euro Area. Euro Area Stock Market Index (EU50) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Preferred-Stock-and-Other-Adjustments Time Series for Byrna Technologies Inc. Byrna Technologies Inc., a less-lethal self-defense technology company, develops, manufactures, and sells less-lethal personal security solutions in the United States, South Africa, Europe, South America, Asia, and Canada. The companys products include handheld personal security devices and shoulder-fired launchers designed for use by consumers and professional security customers without the need for a background check or firearms license; projectiles, such as chemical irritant, kinetic, and inert rounds; self-defense aerosol products comprising Byrna Bad Guy Repellent; and accessories and related safety products, such as Byrna Banshee, Byrna Shield, compressed carbon dioxide canisters, sighting systems, holsters, and Byrna-branded apparel. It sells its products to the consumer market through its Byrna e-commerce store and Amazon storefront, Side Hustle dealer program, premier dealers, and a network of outdoor and sporting goods stores either directly or through distributors; and to the professional security market through Train the trainer program. The company was formerly known as Security Devices International, Inc. and changed its name to Byrna Technologies Inc. in March 2020. Byrna Technologies Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

Over the course of 2020, U.S. short sellers lost over 40 billion U.S. dollars to shorts of Tesla - a value significantly higher than other companies. While short selling can generate some very large profits in a small amount of time, the practice can also lead to some very large losses should stock prices rise, confounding investors' expectations. Short selling is a process whereby investors effectively borrow a certain number of shares for a period of time, with the aim of selling them when the price is high, then repurchasing at a lower price in order to return them.

France's main stock market index, the FR40, rose to 7970 points on August 22, 2025, gaining 0.40% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 1.52% and is up 5.18% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from France. France Stock Market Index (FR40) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

This table contains 25 series, with data for years 1956 - present (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 items: Canada ...), Toronto Stock Exchange Statistics (25 items: Standard and Poor's/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index; high; Standard and Poor's/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index; close; Toronto Stock Exchange; oil and gas; closing quotations; Standard and Poor's/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index; low ...).

Four Blue Chip Franchises

Enbridge as a single entity represents leading diversification in all aspects of energy. As a oil distributor is insulated costs of production, if oil is $5/barrel or $200/barrel Enbridge’s profits come from volume of distribution. As the world transitions to renewables, the Line 3 Replacement may be the last pipeline made in North America cementing their monopoly status for the duration of oil’s remaining life.

Resilience during the worst crisis of our lifetimes

Despite historically low demand for oil, due to the diversity of the businesses, Enbridge boasted an increase in EBITDA and a WACC value of 7.2% when all oil producers were selling bonds and cutting costs to avoid bankruptcy, according to the latest form 10 k. The customers of their products are investment grade, in Toronto 100% of natural gas used to heat homes, and hear food in restaurants comes from Enbridge. The renewables account for 5% of revenue, this will increase as Enbridge is spending 1b+ annually for the next 5 years and boost the DCF valuation to 63, this number may increase if governments hand out “green rebates” as part of a stimulus package (my investment thesis does not depend on this rebate, but if it happens ENB will pick up all of the Canadian rebates)

Increased Energy demand

As the world becomes more digitized and home devices become more "smart” coupled with increase in population, energy usage will continue to increase. Based on form 10q, most of the expensive infrastructure to deliver the energy has already been built. Future projects will be to improve efficiency, cut costs, renewable projects, and improve storage.

Future Growth

Going forward Enbridge projects 5-7% in cashflow growth which translates to 5-7% dividend and fundamental growth. Given the current 8% yield at the time of this writing, that results in 13-15% returns from fundamentals + the stock is trading 25% below historical levels. This should result in a solid intrinsic value and a comfortable 20% annualized return over the next 5 years assuming it reverts to historical levels, if it does not wellI will gladly settle for 13-15%.

The Energy sector is expected to mostly stay the same with renewables experiencing the highest % growth, but in absolute terms (net energy produced) they significantly lag fossil fuels. These projections are taken from form 8k. That said, Enbridge will do well in all energy demand environments as they are hedging their bets.

Renewables

Green energy projects have high upfront costs and will be dominated by the best funded and connected players. Enbridge has been in the energy business for 71 years and has access to capital + a proven record in execution. The combination of this will win them disproportionately more contracts than others. Based on value investing, I believe the most likely outcome over the next 20 years will be similar to the last 20, business as usual while using the money from fossil fuels to fund the socially responsible projects.

Position

Given the above, many of the best stock research websites recommend Enbridge, and I expect to hold it 20+ years unless something changes fundamentally or a better opportunity presents itself. At these levels I expect ~20% annualized for the next 5 years. Note the PEG is quite high at 3.56. PEG is a function of earnings (according to their SEC filings) and expenses so if a business makes 100k a year but choses to expand on the 5th year with a new store costing $80k, the earnings that year will be reported as $20k. Given the capital heavy nature of the energy business (unlike tech or banks) I look at operating and direct cashflows to evaluate the business, for which has grown in 2020 (the worst year for energy companies in my lifetime)

The value of the DJIA index amounted to ****** at the end of June 2025, up from ********* at the end of March 2020. Global panic about the coronavirus epidemic caused the drop in March 2020, which was the worst drop since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Dow Jones Industrial Average index – additional information The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is a price-weighted average of 30 of the largest American publicly traded companies on New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, and includes companies like Goldman Sachs, IBM and Walt Disney. This index is considered to be a barometer of the state of the American economy. DJIA index was created in 1986 by Charles Dow. Along with the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indices, it is amongst the most well-known and used stock indexes in the world. The year that the 2018 financial crisis unfolded was one of the worst years of the Dow. It was also in 2008 that some of the largest ever recorded losses of the Dow Jones Index based on single-day points were registered. On September 29, 2008, for instance, the Dow had a loss of ****** points, one of the largest single-day losses of all times. The best years in the history of the index still are 1915, when the index value increased by ***** percent in one year, and 1933, year when the index registered a growth of ***** percent.

The average for 2021 based on 87 countries was 32.21 percent. The highest value was in Venezuela: 991.39 percent and the lowest value was in Botswana: -6.38 percent. The indicator is available from 1984 to 2021. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

Gold fell to 3,324.13 USD/t.oz on August 22, 2025, down 0.46% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold's price has fallen 1.88%, but it is still 32.46% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gold - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

As of August 2020, the S&P 500 index had lost ** percent of its value due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Great Crash, which began with Black Tuesday, remains the most significant loss in value in its history. That market crash lasted for 300 months and wiped ** percent off the index value.

PDLB is a triple whammy on those three themes.ECIP capital: PDLB received $225M of ECIP capital, and the regulators assigned them the lowest possible dividend (0.5%) on this capital for the first year of payments (announced in June). If we assume PDLB continues to pay 0.5% on this preferred and they have a cost of preferred equity of 10%, then we can calculate the value of this $225M liability as just $11M, with the rest a write-up to equity.This adjustment brings P/TBV from 82% to 46%.Thrift conversion dynamics: Ponce converted from a mutual holding company to a stock holding company in January 2022 (second step). PDLB is an unprofitable and under-levered bank. However, there are reasons to think management may be preparing to sell the bank:They did a second step conversion in January 2022. Only the optionality to sell the bank would motivate this step, as the bank didn’t need the capital, and the conversion increases management’s susceptibility to activist investors. This is highly praised by the best stock analysis websites.Management is old: 6/8 members are in their 70s or 80s (including the CEO and Chairman).Together, the Directors and Officers own >2M shares of stock, worth ~$20M. The CEO owns 580,000 shares, worth ~$6M. His total compensation is ~$1.3M (and he'll need to retire soon anyway). Additionally, the CEO and directors will receive a final tranche of ESOP shares in December 2024 that will boost their holdings another ~40%.Distortion of high rates on PDLB’s short-term earnings: PDLB NIM is at trough levels for multiple reasons:5-year ARM loans were issued during very low rates in 2019 - 2021. 5-year treasury yields were between 0.2% and 1.4% during this period, and grew to >4% in September 2022 (where they’ve been ever since). Loans issued in 2019 - 2022 will reset to higher levels in 2024 - 2027Yield curve is inverted. Ponce lends based on the long end of the curve (five-year rates at 4.1%) and funds on the short-end of the curve (brokered deposits come in at ~5.3%). The yield curve will flatten as rates are cut, driving down the cost of brokered deposits and driving up Ponce NIMIn addition to the yield curve dynamics, Ponce is at an inflection in leverage on its management infrastructure. It built out management capabilities for a much larger bank, and is currently seeing decreasing Q/Q non-interest cost, while assets and interest income are growing nicely.IR told me that cost pressures were peaking in 2023, and this has already become true in 1H 2024 results.Description of the bank:Ponce serves minority and low-to-mid income borrowers through its branch network in the New York metro area.Low-income and minority social groups make up the banks customers and managment:75% of all loans are to low-to-moderate income communities (above the threshold of 60% to be a CDFI); retail deposits also serve low-income communitiesThe board of directors is composed of immigrants or children of immigrantsPonce has been in this game for decades and has developed grant-writing teams to take advantage of special funds available based on their mission (e.g. $4.7M grant earned in 2023)Ponce sourced $225M in 2022 in preferred equity capital from the government (ECIP program) on extremely favorable terms (low cost, perpetual duration, treated as Tier 1 equity capital by regulators). They recently reported that for the first year (and I’d be in subsequent years), they’ll pay the lowest possible dividend of 0.5% (the range is up to 2% for the program). This number is inline with the one quoted by the best stock websites.Ponce also receives low-cost corporate deposits that allow other banks to get Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) credit with regulators. These deposits are insured and sticky, and often ~200bps or more below market interest rates.Outside of the ECIP equity and the small-but-growing CRA corporate deposits, the bank doesn’t have a good deposit franchise. The blended total cost of interest-bearing liabilities in 2023 is 4.0%.On the asset side, Ponce’s focus on mortgage lending to lower-income communities is a good niche (and composes 99% of lending). IR explained to me that the board of directors is composed of engaged real estate investors who know intimately the relevant neighborhoods and are involved in credit underwriting. Ponce lends 5/1 and 5/5 adjustable-rate mortgages against single-family (27% of loans), multifamily (30% of loans), and non-residential (18% of loans). Construction (23% of loans) properties are 36-month fixed-rate loans. LTVs on all these segments are ~55% and debt service coverage ratio >1.25x. In the current environment, Ponce is issuing loans at ~9% yield that are likely to experience very low levels of credit losses (my expectation would be 0 - 0.1% per year in annual credit cost). Given 5-year rates (~4%), lending at 9% is very favorable, and likely reflects decreasing competitive intensity in the wake of recent banking turmoil.I’m comfortable projecting very low credit costs because losses from the mortgage portfolio have been substantially zero going back to 2016 and very low going back to 2012 (the first year of available data). Charge-offs seemed to peak in 2013 at 0.7% of outstanding loans (charge-off happen years after delinquencies, so the timing seems reasonable following ‘08/’09). Given the peak of 0.7% and the more common experience of 0.0% charge-offs in Ponce’s mortgages, I’m therefore comfortable mostly ignoring credit cost.The most concerning area with respect to credit costs is the construction book. Although they scaled the construction business in 2023, it's not a new business for PDLB (they've been doing construction loans on the order of ~100M per year since 2017, and on a smaller scale before that). PDLB has not recorded any charge offs on the construction business going back at least 7 years. PDLB had no new delinquencies on this book in 2023 (I.e. from loans made in 2020). They did have some DQNs in 2022, but these have been mostly worked out without charge offs.Regarding the timing of the ramp up in recent quarters, it may be just right: if investors/banks are concerned about charge offs today, that's related to vintages from 2020/2021 (which were also loans issued at much lower rates and might not roll over smoothly). If others are pulling back, that's the time to deploy more capital into the business.The bank is currently very under-leveraged: Tier-1 equity / RWA is 21% (vs. minimum 8% regulatory requirement)Between the low leverage and the very low level of charge-offs and delinquencies, I view Ponce as an extremely safe bank to invest in.Investment thesis:Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costsAs with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate upon 3-year anniversary (January)Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costs:Although the 2023 / 2024 rate environment has pressured NIMs, there are already signs that interest-rate spread / NIM have bottomed, even as no interest rate cuts have happened. Interest rate spreads have leveled out in the past three quarters at ~1.7%. Liabilities have mostly repriced, and from here, tailwinds will be 1) repricing of the 5-year ARMs and 2) interest rate cuts starting in September. NIM will be going up, and will likely recover to historical levels within a couple of years.On the expense side, there was significant concern into the 2023 results about non-interest expense. Compensation and benefits grew by 13% CAGR from 2019 - 2023. Growth was 10% in 2023, showing deceleration but still to a high level. However, based on comments by IR that the bank has built expense infrastructure for a much larger bank, and based on results from 1H 2024, it looks like expenses are more controlled now. Non interest cost was in the 17.0M - 17.9M range for the last four quarters (prior to recently announced Q2). Q2, on the other hand, showed non-interest expense at 16.1M. Meanwhile, interest earning assets continued to grow at ~12% Y/Y. The combination of flat / decreasing costs and double-digit asset growth is very favorable for expense leverage.Additionally, managers have incentives to create shareholder value, especially as they reach retirement age. If Ponce doesn’t slow expense growth, shareholder activists may discover Ponce and pressure management to rationalize or sell the bank.The combination of improving NIM, growth in assets, and flattish expenses should produce much higher EPS in coming quarters, and I think $2 - $2.50 in EPS by 2026 is likely (if the bank isn’t sold).As with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate:The three-year anniversary of the thrift conversion is in January. The board is of retirement age and has healthy incentives to sell the bank. A buyout is likely a home-run from today’s stock price of $10.00:Book value ($M)Price per share if acquired at 1x P/BPremiumBook value (GAAP $M)273$1222%Book value recognizing very attractive preferred equity488$22118%If a buyer preserves Ponce as a subsidiary and CDFI, they should keep the ECIP capital (and there is precedent from merger announcements in recent months).Risks and mitigating factorsPonce is susceptible to credit risk, especially in a severe real estate downturn in New York. However, from what we can see of the wake of 2008/2009 financial crash, realized losses on the portfolio were quite low. Additionally, current credit metrics are pristine. 90-day delinquencies are just 0.5% of loans. Construction loans were the worst performers at 1.6%, followed by (counter-intuitively) owner-occupied at 1.4%. The NYC real estate dynamics affecting NYCB and others appear to be non-issues for PDLB. However it’s worth keeping a close eye on credit metrics.If NYC raises taxes to address budget deficits, it could hurt property prices. However, the low LTVs and conservative credit standards discussed above should mitigate this