Abstract: Since the 1970s most state restrictions on carrying handguns in public have been eased or eliminated. Several of the early impact evaluations of these changes tended to support the belief that laws that facilitated gun carrying by private citizens deterred violent crime (while possibly increasing property crime). But more recent studies of the impacts of right to carry (RTC) laws conclude that the net effect is to increase state-level violent-crime rates relative to more restrictive regimes. This finding implies that the deterrence mechanism is swamped by other mechanisms, but there has been little evidence on which ones are important in practice. Using a novel data set of 217 large cities over 41 years, we confirm that violent crime increases following RTC adoption. We then document two mechanisms that may account for this result, finding a 50 percent increase in gun theft and a 9-18 percent reduction in violent crime clearance rates. Further analysis of city-level heterogeneity in RTC-induced effects is consistent with the hypothesis that gun theft is a likely cause of the RTC-induced increase in violent crime and more tentative evidence points to clearance as a potential driver.

The high-security padlock market, currently valued at $382 million in 2025, is experiencing robust growth, projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several key market drivers. Increasing concerns about security breaches and theft across various sectors – residential, commercial, and industrial – are driving demand for advanced locking mechanisms offering superior protection. The rising adoption of smart technologies, including keyless entry systems and biometric padlocks, is further boosting market expansion. Furthermore, the growing preference for durable and weather-resistant padlocks, particularly in harsh environments, contributes significantly to market growth. Leading players like ABUS, Master Lock, and Yale are investing heavily in research and development to enhance product features, expand their product portfolios, and cater to evolving customer needs. This competitive landscape is characterized by both innovation and consolidation, with mergers and acquisitions potentially shaping the future market structure. Despite the positive outlook, certain restraints are present. The relatively high cost of high-security padlocks compared to standard padlocks may limit adoption among price-sensitive consumers. Furthermore, the market faces challenges related to educating consumers about the benefits and features of advanced security padlocks and ensuring compatibility with existing security infrastructure. However, ongoing technological advancements and increasing awareness of security risks are expected to mitigate these constraints over the forecast period. The market segmentation is likely diverse, encompassing various padlock types (e.g., keyed, combination, electronic), materials (e.g., steel, brass), and application areas (e.g., industrial, residential). Geographic growth will likely be uneven, with regions experiencing higher crime rates or stricter security regulations exhibiting more significant growth.

The global market for card smart electronic door locks is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing security concerns, rising adoption of smart home technologies, and the convenience offered by keyless entry systems. While precise market size figures aren't provided, considering the presence of major players like Samsung, Bosch, and Yale, and the prevalence of smart home integration, a reasonable estimate for the 2025 market size could be around $2.5 billion. Assuming a conservative Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12% based on industry trends observed in related smart home sectors, the market is projected to reach approximately $5 billion by 2033. This growth is fueled by several factors: the increasing affordability of smart locks, improved integration with existing home automation systems, and the development of more sophisticated features such as biometric authentication and remote access capabilities. Furthermore, the growing demand for enhanced security in residential and commercial settings, particularly in light of rising crime rates, contributes significantly to market expansion. The market segmentation is likely diverse, encompassing various lock types (keypad, fingerprint, card reader combinations), price points, and functionalities. Key players are focusing on innovation to capture market share, introducing features such as enhanced encryption, cloud connectivity, and integration with voice assistants. However, restraints to growth include initial higher costs compared to traditional locks, concerns about data security and privacy, and the potential for technological vulnerabilities. Regional variations in adoption rates are expected, with developed economies leading in market penetration, while emerging markets show increasing potential for future growth, driven by rising disposable incomes and urbanization. The period between 2019-2024 represents a foundational period of market development where the adoption rates significantly increased. This is expected to continue through 2033.