US 2 Year Note Bond Yield was 3.99 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-03-24 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on two year U.S. treasury bonds started increasing since 2021, reaching a new peak of 5.08 percent in October 2023. This comes after the yields for two-year treasury bonds plummeted down to less than 0.2 for much of 2020 owing to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.34 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about 3-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS1MO) from 2001-07-31 to 2025-03-25 about 1-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The spread between 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.1 percent in November 2024. The 10-year minus two-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Japan 2 Year Bond Yield was 0.89 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 2 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

The yield on German two-year treasure notes was equal to 2.09 percent as of the end of December 2024. For short term debt traded on the capital market, the German federal government issues a two-year treasury note called a 'Schatz' in German. This is then followed by five-year treasure notes called 'Bobl', then federal bonds with a maturity of between 10 and 30 years ('Bund' in German).

China 2 Year Bond Yield was 1.48 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for China 2Y.

Graph and download economic data for Fitted Yield on a 2 Year Zero Coupon Bond (THREEFY2) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-03-21 about 2-year, bonds, yield, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity was 0.30% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity reached a record high of 2.91 in February of 2011 and a record low of -2.41 in March of 1980. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.

United States Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: MA: 2 Years data was reported at 2.861 % pa in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.768 % pa for Sep 2018. United States Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: MA: 2 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 5.352 % pa from Jun 1976 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 509 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.458 % pa in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.211 % pa in Sep 2011. United States Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: MA: 2 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M008: Treasury Securities Yields.

As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

US 3 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.02 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Canada 2 Year Bond Yield was 2.59 percent on Tuesday March 25, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Canada 2Y.