We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to May 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ***** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury (constant maturity) yields: Positive values may imply future growth, negative values may imply economic downturns.

China gdp growth rate for 2023 was 5.20%, a 2.21% increase from 2022.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>China gdp growth rate for 2022 was <strong>2.99%</strong>, a <strong>5.46% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
<li>China gdp growth rate for 2021 was <strong>8.45%</strong>, a <strong>6.21% increase</strong> from 2020.</li>
<li>China gdp growth rate for 2020 was <strong>2.24%</strong>, a <strong>3.71% decline</strong> from 2019.</li>
</ul>Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany expanded 0.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

View economic output, reported as the nominal value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

For a long time, governments of all countries have attached great importance to the development of underground economic activities. The reason is that the characteristics of the underground economy are hidden and the information disclosure is not sufficient, which not only distorts the economic data indicators, but more importantly, the existence of the underground economy has led to the loss of a large amount of tax base, affecting the long-term economic development of the country. Whether raising the tax burden rate boosts the tax revenue or expand the scale of the underground economy. In this paper, we use Kuznet Tax Curve (KTC) method to analyze the relationship between GDP and TTR/DTR/ITR. We find that the tax base erosion rate of indirect tax is lower than that of direct tax. In addition, we explore the relationship among economic growth, tax rate and tax revenue and adopt SUR-OLS method and Threshold approach to estimate the response of economic growth on total tax revenue(TTR), direct tax revenue(DTR) and indirect tax revenue (ITR) in Taiwan from 1991-2020. Our empirical research shows that when DTR tax rates are between 12.59% and 13%, an increase in income leads to a decrease, not an increase, in DTR, leading to severe tax base erosion. That is, the relationship between GDP and DTR presents a N-shaped relationship. However, ITR does not exist any tax rate threshold effect. Obviously, with the increase of GDP, ITR also increases. This reflects that the difference of tax structure between direct tax and indirect tax plays a key role in the relationship between tax rate and tax base erosion.

Kurmann and Otrok (2013) establish that the effects on economic activity from news on future productivity growth are similar to the effects from unexpected changes in the slope of the yield curve. This comment shows that these results become substantially weaker in the light of a recent update in the utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series produced by Fernald (2014).

For a long time, governments of all countries have attached great importance to the development of underground economic activities. The reason is that the characteristics of the underground economy are hidden and the information disclosure is not sufficient, which not only distorts the economic data indicators, but more importantly, the existence of the underground economy has led to the loss of a large amount of tax base, affecting the long-term economic development of the country. Whether raising the tax burden rate boosts the tax revenue or expand the scale of the underground economy. In this paper, we use Kuznet Tax Curve (KTC) method to analyze the relationship between GDP and TTR/DTR/ITR. We find that the tax base erosion rate of indirect tax is lower than that of direct tax. In addition, we explore the relationship among economic growth, tax rate and tax revenue and adopt SUR-OLS method and Threshold approach to estimate the response of economic growth on total tax revenue(TTR), direct tax revenue(DTR) and indirect tax revenue (ITR) in Taiwan from 1991-2020. Our empirical research shows that when DTR tax rates are between 12.59% and 13%, an increase in income leads to a decrease, not an increase, in DTR, leading to severe tax base erosion. That is, the relationship between GDP and DTR presents a N-shaped relationship. However, ITR does not exist any tax rate threshold effect. Obviously, with the increase of GDP, ITR also increases. This reflects that the difference of tax structure between direct tax and indirect tax plays a key role in the relationship between tax rate and tax base erosion.

Regression results for the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Quadratic and cubic analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and GDP per capita.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China amounted to around 18.7 trillion U.S. dollars. In comparison to the GDP of the other BRIC countries India, Russia and Brazil, China came first that year and second in the world GDP ranking. The stagnation of China's GDP in U.S. dollar terms in 2022 and 2023 was mainly due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. China's real GDP growth was 3.1 percent in 2022 and 5.4 percent in 2023. In 2024, per capita GDP in China reached around 13,300 U.S. dollars. Economic performance in China Gross domestic product (GDP) is a primary economic indicator. It measures the total value of all goods and services produced in an economy over a certain time period. China's economy used to grow quickly in the past, but the growth rate of China’s real GDP gradually slowed down in recent years, and year-on-year GDP growth is forecasted to range at only around four percent in the years after 2024. Since 2010, China has been the world’s second-largest economy, surpassing Japan.China’s emergence in the world’s economy has a lot to do with its status as the ‘world’s factory’. Since 2013, China is the largest export country in the world. Some argue that it is partly due to the undervalued Chinese currency. The Big Mac Index, a simplified and informal way to measure the purchasing power parity between different currencies, indicates that the Chinese currency yuan was roughly undervalued by 38 percent in 2024. GDP development Although the impressive economic development in China has led millions of people out of poverty, China is still not in the league of industrialized countries on the per capita basis. To name one example, the U.S. per capita economic output was more than six times as large as in China in 2024. Meanwhile, the Chinese society faces increased income disparities. The Gini coefficient of China, a widely used indicator of economic inequality, has been larger than 0.45 over the last decade, whereas 0.40 is the warning level for social unrest.

For a long time, governments of all countries have attached great importance to the development of underground economic activities. The reason is that the characteristics of the underground economy are hidden and the information disclosure is not sufficient, which not only distorts the economic data indicators, but more importantly, the existence of the underground economy has led to the loss of a large amount of tax base, affecting the long-term economic development of the country. Whether raising the tax burden rate boosts the tax revenue or expand the scale of the underground economy. In this paper, we use Kuznet Tax Curve (KTC) method to analyze the relationship between GDP and TTR/DTR/ITR. We find that the tax base erosion rate of indirect tax is lower than that of direct tax. In addition, we explore the relationship among economic growth, tax rate and tax revenue and adopt SUR-OLS method and Threshold approach to estimate the response of economic growth on total tax revenue(TTR), direct tax revenue(DTR) and indirect tax revenue (ITR) in Taiwan from 1991-2020. Our empirical research shows that when DTR tax rates are between 12.59% and 13%, an increase in income leads to a decrease, not an increase, in DTR, leading to severe tax base erosion. That is, the relationship between GDP and DTR presents a N-shaped relationship. However, ITR does not exist any tax rate threshold effect. Obviously, with the increase of GDP, ITR also increases. This reflects that the difference of tax structure between direct tax and indirect tax plays a key role in the relationship between tax rate and tax base erosion.

This paper examines the linear effects of economic growth on carbon emissions and their impact on mortality and morbidity rates in specific regions sub-Sahara Africa, Middle-East and North Africa, Europe and Central Asia (SSA, MENA, ECA). By analyzing longitudinal data for 82 panels over 30 years, we investigate the relationships between energy usage, per capita GDP, life expectancy, and carbon emissions. Our estimation results show positive correlations between energy use, carbon production, and life expectancy in both the combined sample and individual regions. However, death rate has a negative relationship with carbon production in the combined sample, MENA, and SSA regions. Per capita GDP positively influences carbon emissions and life expectancy in the combined sample and ECA, MENA, and SSA regions. We also identify asymmetric relationships between per capita GDP and carbon production, with evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for the combined and ECA samples, and an N-trajectory for SSA. These findings emphasize the importance of region-specific approaches to sustainable development, considering the unique environmental and economic challenges each region faces. Policymakers should consider our research insights when designing policies to mitigate the negative impacts of economic progress on the environment.

Dictionary size is measured in number of words.