As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

View market daily updates and historical trends for 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread. from United States. Source: Department of the Treasury. Track economi…

Daily US Treasury bond and bill rates with modified duration calculations and DV01 analysis

Abstract Unusual interest rate behavior has become increasingly frequent in developed economies. Even though intuitively unlikely, government bond yields in negative territory are found in most European countries, and inverted yield curves for Treasury bonds in the United States occurred during some months. This paper presents the influence of conventional and non-conventional monetary policy instruments over the previously mentioned phenomena, and an interpretation based on the Liquidity Preference Theory proposed by Keynes. This interpretation explains, based on agents’ behavior, why public and private asset purchase programs, yield curve control and communication based on forward guidance used by central banks could persist and influence financial markets. This situation has enabled the occurrence of atypical phenomena regarding interest rates.

This is a no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model, implemented as in Kim and Wright using the methodology of Kim and Orphanides . The underlying model is the standard affine Gaussian model with three factors that are latent (i.e., the factors are defined only statistically and do not have a specific economic meaning). The model is parameterized in a maximally flexible way (i.e., it is the most general model of its kind with three factors that are econometrically identified). In the estimation of the parameters of the model, data on survey forecasts of 3-month Treasury bill (T-bill) rate are used in addition to yields data in order to help address the small sample problems that often pervade econometric estimation with persistent time series like bond yields.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

Analysis and visualization of sovereign bond yield curve for French, updated weekly.

Context

Data is extracted from Bloomberg and I used it mainly for the kernel: "Is a recession coming? US Yield Curves can tell us". Yield Curves are presumed to be very good predictors of economic recessions. This analysis assesses how accurate they can actually forecast this event and when they say the next economic recession will take place.

Data Yield Curve:

• Date - daily information from 1977 to 2019
• 1yr - Yield Curve value for 1 year maturity
• 30YR - Yield Curve value for 30 years maturity
• SPREAD - is the difference between the 30yr and 1yr maturities (it is negative when the yield curve inverted)
• SP500 - stock market index that tracks the stocks of 500 large-cap U.S. companies
• GOLD - price of gold
• OIL - price of oil
• CHFUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and swiss franc
• JPYUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen

Yield-curve-inverted

• Maturities - the type of maturity (from 1 month to 30 years)
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date (showing the invertion)

View market daily updates and historical trends for 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread. from United States. Source: Department of the Treasury. Track e…

As of April 16, 2025, French government debt securities with a maturity date of over six years returned higher yields than *** year before. On the other hand, the yield for a maturity shorter than *** year was lower than *** year before. The lowest yield was found on securities with maturities of two years, which returned **** percent. Conversely, 30-year French government bonds recorded a positive yield of **** percent. Positive bond yields mean that investors receive more money at the bond's maturity than the original purchase price of the bond, owing to low demand for the bond on money or capital markets.

Track real-time 20 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.76% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.06 points and is 0.35 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Analysis and visualization of sovereign bond yield curve for German, updated weekly.

Analysis and visualization of sovereign bond yield curve for Italian, updated weekly.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.12% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has remained flat, and it is 0.11 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Track real-time 30 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

For over ten years, the Treasury has issued index-linked debt. This paper describes the methodology for fitting a smoothed yield curve to these securities that is used at the Federal Reserve Board every day, and makes the estimates public. Comparison with the corresponding nominal yield curve allows measures of inflation compensation to be computed. We discuss the interpretation of inflation compensation, and provide evidence that it is not a pure measure of inflation expectations being distorted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium components. We attempt to estimate the TIPS liquidity premium and to extract underlying inflation expectations. (JEL E31, E43, H63)

As of February 20, 2023, all Dutch government debt securities with a maturity date longer than or equal to a month returned positive yields. The lowest yield was found on securities with a maturity of *** month, which returned **** percent. Positive bond yields mean that investor receive more money at the bond's maturity than the original purchase price of the bond, owing to low demand for the bond on money or capital markets.

Source is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/"NAME OF MEASURE" Column names are "Name of Measure" from FRED's catalog.

Group 1: Yield Curve Indicators These focus on the shape of the Treasury yield curve, comparing longer-term to shorter-term rates. They are primarily used to: Signal Economic Expectations: A normal curve (longer-term rates higher) suggests expectations of growth and possibly inflation. A flattening or inverted curve (short-term rates near or above long-term) could signal a potential slowdown or recession.

Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations These spreads look at the difference between Treasury yields and the Federal Funds Rate, the primary tool of monetary policy. They indicate: Market vs. Fed Outlook: Widening spreads could suggest the market expects faster rate hikes or higher long-term inflation than the Fed is signaling. Narrowing spreads could mean the opposite. Risk-Taking: When these spreads widen, it can be a sign of investors moving from safe Treasuries to riskier assets in search of yield.

Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment These spreads focus on corporate bond yields relative to Treasuries, highlighting the added compensation investors require for holding riskier corporate debt. They signal: Credit Conditions: Widening spreads suggest deteriorating credit conditions or lower risk tolerance among investors. Narrowing spreads suggest the opposite. Economic Confidence: Investors often demand higher premiums for corporate bonds during economic uncertainty, widening these spreads.

Group 4: Breakeven Inflation Rates The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average.