Context

Data is extracted from Bloomberg and I used it mainly for the kernel: "Is a recession coming? US Yield Curves can tell us". Yield Curves are presumed to be very good predictors of economic recessions. This analysis assesses how accurate they can actually forecast this event and when they say the next economic recession will take place.

Data Yield Curve:

• Date - daily information from 1977 to 2019
• 1yr - Yield Curve value for 1 year maturity
• 30YR - Yield Curve value for 30 years maturity
• SPREAD - is the difference between the 30yr and 1yr maturities (it is negative when the yield curve inverted)
• SP500 - stock market index that tracks the stocks of 500 large-cap U.S. companies
• GOLD - price of gold
• OIL - price of oil
• CHFUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and swiss franc
• JPYUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen

Yield-curve-inverted

• Maturities - the type of maturity (from 1 month to 30 years)
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date (showing the invertion)

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.52% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.03 points and is 0.24 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Abstract Unusual interest rate behavior has become increasingly frequent in developed economies. Even though intuitively unlikely, government bond yields in negative territory are found in most European countries, and inverted yield curves for Treasury bonds in the United States occurred during some months. This paper presents the influence of conventional and non-conventional monetary policy instruments over the previously mentioned phenomena, and an interpretation based on the Liquidity Preference Theory proposed by Keynes. This interpretation explains, based on agents’ behavior, why public and private asset purchase programs, yield curve control and communication based on forward guidance used by central banks could persist and influence financial markets. This situation has enabled the occurrence of atypical phenomena regarding interest rates.

Source is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/"NAME OF MEASURE" Column names are "Name of Measure" from FRED's catalog.

Group 1: Yield Curve Indicators These focus on the shape of the Treasury yield curve, comparing longer-term to shorter-term rates. They are primarily used to: Signal Economic Expectations: A normal curve (longer-term rates higher) suggests expectations of growth and possibly inflation. A flattening or inverted curve (short-term rates near or above long-term) could signal a potential slowdown or recession.

Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations These spreads look at the difference between Treasury yields and the Federal Funds Rate, the primary tool of monetary policy. They indicate: Market vs. Fed Outlook: Widening spreads could suggest the market expects faster rate hikes or higher long-term inflation than the Fed is signaling. Narrowing spreads could mean the opposite. Risk-Taking: When these spreads widen, it can be a sign of investors moving from safe Treasuries to riskier assets in search of yield.

Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment These spreads focus on corporate bond yields relative to Treasuries, highlighting the added compensation investors require for holding riskier corporate debt. They signal: Credit Conditions: Widening spreads suggest deteriorating credit conditions or lower risk tolerance among investors. Narrowing spreads suggest the opposite. Economic Confidence: Investors often demand higher premiums for corporate bonds during economic uncertainty, widening these spreads.

Group 4: Breakeven Inflation Rates The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average.