We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield held steady at 4.08% on October 3, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.08 points, though it remains 0.12 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield curve, also called the term structure of interest rates, refers to the relationship between the remaining time-to-maturity of debt securities and the yield on those securities. Yield curves have many practical uses, including pricing of various fixed-income securities, and are closely watched by market participants and policymakers alike for potential clues about the markets perception of the path of the policy rate and the macroeconomic outlook. This page provides daily estimated real yield curve parameters, smoothed yields on hypothetical TIPS, and implied inflation compensation, from 1999 to the present. Because this is a staff research product and not an official statistical release, it is subject to delay, revision, or methodological changes without advance notice.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.70% on October 3, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.15 points, though it remains 0.46 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jul 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.70% on October 2, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.04 points, though it remains 0.56 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 3.59% on October 3, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points, though it remains 0.25 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

As of July 14, 2025, all Australian government debt securities had positive yields. Debt with a residual maturity of two years debt recorded the lowest yield at 3.41 percent, while debt with a residual of 30 years recorded the highest yield at 5.04 percent. It is usually the case that bonds with a longer maturity have a higher yield so as to compensate investors for the higher level of uncertainty about future market conditions.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Ct UK High Income Trust (CHI+CHIB) Navigating the Yield Curve

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

View data describing the spread between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturities, which can indicate perceived economic outlook.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Angel Oak Income Term Trust (AOF) - Navigating the Yield Curve

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield held steady at 1.67% on October 3, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.06 points and is 0.78 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

The yield on Mexico 10Y Bond Yield rose to 8.65% on October 2, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.16 points and is 0.75 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Mexico 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.16% on October 3, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.18 points and is 0.04 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

Snapshot img

Fixed Income Assets Management Market Size 2025-2029

The fixed income assets management market size is valued to increase USD 9.16 tr, at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2024 to 2029. Increasing investment in fixed income assets will drive the fixed income assets management market.

Major Market Trends & Insights

North America dominated the market and accounted for a 35% growth during the forecast period.
By Type - Core segment was valued at USD 13.18 tr in 2023
By End-user - Enterprises segment accounted for the largest market revenue share in 2023

Market Size & Forecast

Market Opportunities: USD 55.33 tr
Market Future Opportunities: USD 9156.40 tr
CAGR : 6.3%
North America: Largest market in 2023

Market Summary

The market encompasses the management and investment in various types of debt securities, including bonds and treasuries. Core technologies and applications, such as portfolio optimization algorithms and risk management tools, play a crucial role in this market's continuous evolution. One significant trend is the increasing adoption of bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which accounted for over 20% of global fixed income assets under management in 2021.
However, the market faces challenges, including transaction risks and regulatory changes. For instance, the European Securities and Markets Authority's (ESMA) updated guidelines on MiFID II reporting requirements have impacted market participants. Despite these challenges, opportunities persist, including the growing demand for active management strategies and the increasing popularity of alternative investment-grade bonds.

What will be the Size of the Fixed Income Assets Management Market during the forecast period?

Get Key Insights on Market Forecast (PDF) Request Free Sample

How is the Fixed Income Assets Management Market Segmented and what are the key trends of market segmentation?

The fixed income assets management industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD tr' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Type

  Core
  Alternative


End-user

  Enterprises
  Individuals


Geography

  North America

    US
    Canada


  Europe

    France
    Germany
    Italy
    UK


  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan
    South Korea


  Rest of World (ROW)

By Type Insights

The core segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Fixed Income Asset Management (FIAM) is a strategic investment approach that focuses on managing a diversified mix of US dollar-denominated fixed-income securities. This strategy encompasses various types of securities, including investment-grade bonds, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), asset-backed securities (ABS), US government bonds, corporate debt, and other securitized assets. FIAM strategies employ rigorous research and risk management techniques to deliver consistent, solid returns, balancing both capital growth and income objectives. Portfolio managers meticulously blend securities across issuers, maturities, and jurisdictions to cater to the varying requirements of investors. Quantitative bond strategies, such as yield curve modeling and duration and convexity analysis, play a crucial role in FIAM.

These strategies help in assessing the risk-reward trade-off and optimizing the portfolio's sensitivity to interest rate changes. Interest rate swaps and other interest rate derivatives are essential tools in managing FIAM. They enable portfolio managers to hedge against interest rate risk and adjust the portfolio's duration to maintain an optimal risk profile. Performance attribution models and option-adjusted spread analysis are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of FIAM strategies. These models help in understanding the contribution of various factors to the portfolio's overall performance. Liquidity risk management is another critical aspect of FIAM. Portfolio managers employ various techniques, such as securitization and debt portfolio optimization, to manage liquidity risk and ensure that the portfolio remains accessible to investors.

Global macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, economic growth, and interest rates, significantly impact the FIAM market. Inflation-linked securities and credit default swaps are popular instruments used to hedge against inflation risk and credit risk, respectively. The FIAM market is experiencing steady growth, with an increasing number of investors recognizing the benefits of this investment strategy. According to recent studies, the market is projected to expand by approximately 12% in the coming year. Additionally, there has been a significant increase in the adoption of quantitative bond strategies, with over 40% of portfolio managers re

View quarterly updates and historical trends for US Prime Rate Forecast. from United States. Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. Track economic da…

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.88% on September 30, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points, though it remains 0.28 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.

The yield on Indonesia 10Y Bond Yield rose to 6.33% on October 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.07 points and is 0.19 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Indonesia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on October of 2025.