As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Prior to the 2020 recession, the yield curve was only inverted for 141 days, which was much shorter than the average 248 days preceding the previous five U.S. recessions. For instance, the yield curve was inverted for 235 days between the inversion in January 2006 and the start of the 2007-2009 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

This data is used to build rolling window estimators - multivariate inverse MIDAS models for forecasting high-frequency economic variables

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-06-05 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In a number of reported instances, implosions utilizing fuel mixtures have resulted in anomalously low fusion yields below those predicted by radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. Inter-species ion diffusion has been suggested as a possible cause of the observed yield degradation in fuel mixture implosions. An experimental platform utilizing hydro-equivalent deuterium-tritium (DT), deuterium-tritium-hydrogen (DTH), and deuterium-tritium-helium3 (DT3He) capsule implosions was developed to determine whether the inter-species ion diffusion theory may describe the resulting fuel mixture implosion behavior. The implosion experiments were performed at the Omega laser facility. X-ray images and shell areal density diagnostics results show that the hydro-equivalent three capsules (DT, DTH, and DT3He) have similar compression behavior. However, nuclear yield deviation was observed from the scaling determined using a fusion yield formula. In the DT3He mixture, a reduced yield of a factor of 0.65 ± 0.13 was observed, which is similar to a yield reduction observed in D3He mixture by Rygg et al. (i.e, Rygg effect). In contrast, in the DTH mixture, a factor of 1.17 ± 0.15 yield increase was observed, which we named the inverse Rygg effect. The yield increase observed in the DTH mixture is consistent with the inter-species ion diffusion theory where lighter H diffuses away from the core and concentrated DT in the core produces higher yield. An inter-species ion diffusion model, the Zimmerman-Paquette-Kagan-Zhdanov (ZPKZ) model, implemented in a Lagrangian radiation-hydrodynamics fluid code, was also used to analyze the present data, without the need to assume hydrodynamic equivalence of the capsules, but it does not completely explain the DTH or DT3He capsules, although its effects are in the correct direction. Simulation-based Bayesian inference was used in the latter analysis to quantify the uncertainty in the numerical simulations. The simulation-based analysis resulted in an inferred Rygg-effect yield decrease factor of 0.91 ± 0.02 for the DT3He mixture, and an inferred inverse-Rygg yield increase factor of 1.21 ± 0.04 for the DTH mixture, based on simulations ignoring ion diffusion.

These data were taken from the R package `spdep'. The Mercer and Hall yield data consist of wheat yields on a 20 by 25 lattice of plots which total to around 1 acre in area. Each of the 20 rows runs in the E-W direction and each of the 25 columns in the N-S direction. Authors have analysed the wheat-yield data using both lattice models (through specification of the inverse covariance matrix) and geostatistical models (through specification of the covariance matrix). More details on these data can be found in Cressie (1993) pp. 248--259, 454--456. Format: This is a three column csv file, the data in which was made available by Hongfei Li. There are 500 observations on the following 6 variables. lat: local coordinates northings ordered north to south lon: local coordinates eastings yield: Mercer and Hall wheat yield data. Note: These are /local/ lat-lon coordinates. The value of 4.03 was changed to 4.33 (wheat[71,]) 13 January 2014; thanks to Sandy Burden; cross-checked with http://www.itc.nl/personal/rossiter/teach/R/mhw.csv, which agrees. The following image can be generated as follows:

As of April 16, 2025, the UK bond market displayed a positive spread of 69.3 basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates slightly above short-term ones. The 5-year versus 2-year spread and the 2-year versus 1-year spread also showed a positive value, at 15.1 and 21.7 basis points, respectively.

Upon treatment with [PdCl(allyl)]2, asymmetrically substituted α,α‘-diphosphanyl diazo compounds eliminate dinitrogen to afford C-chlorodiphosphanylmethanide complexes in high yields. In the presence of a chloride-abstracting agent, such as sodium tetraphenylborate, the C-chlorodiphosphanylmethanide complexes react with pyridine and trimethylphosphine, readily affording the corresponding nitrogen and phosphorus ylides. The postulated intermediate in this process, namely palladadiphosphanylcarbenes, could not be spectroscopically characterized, but their transient formation was chemically supported further by a Lewis base exchange reaction between pyridine and 4-dimethylaminopyridine. This hypothesis has also been substantiated by computing the corresponding dissociation energy using two model systems featuring methyl groups at the phosphorus. Of particular interest, density functional theory calculations reveal that these palladadiphosphanylcarbenes have a singlet ground state with an “inverse” pπ2 electronic configuration and a distorted geometry associated with unusual transannular metal−carbene interactions (πC→Pd donation and σPd→C back-donation).

As of April 16, 2025, Germany's bond market displayed a positive spread of 77.2 basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates above short-term ones. The 5-year versus 2-year spread was also positive, at 32.8 basis points. On the other hand, the 2-year versus 1-year spread was negative, at -8.5 basis points, suggesting a mildly inverted yield curve in shorter maturities. Negative spreads indicate a (partially) inverted yield curve. This often signals investor pessimism about short-term economic prospects, as investors seek the relative safety of long-term bonds, pushing those yields down relative to shorter-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is typically interpreted as a potential indicator of economic slowdown or recession, as it reflects expectations of lower interest rates in the future to stimulate the economy.

As of April 16, 2025, the Canadian bond market displayed a positive spread of 57.8 basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates above short-term ones. The 2-year versus 1-year sprea also showed a positive spread of 19.1 basis points. Negative spreads indicate a (partially) inverted yield curve. This often signals investor pessimism about short-term economic prospects, as investors seek the relative safety of long-term bonds, pushing those yields down relative to shorter-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is typically interpreted as a potential indicator of economic slowdown or recession, as it reflects expectations of lower interest rates in the future to stimulate the economy.

United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity was -0.01% in June of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity reached a record high of 5.18 in August of 1982 and a record low of -1.89 in May of 2023. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

Several 4-methoxyxanthones and 3,4-dimethoxyxanthones were synthesized in good yield via inverse-electron-demand Diels−Alder (IEDDA) driven domino reactions between a series of electron-deficient chromone-fused dienes with 1-(2,2-dimethoxyvinyl)pyrrolidine or tetramethoxyethene, respectively.